Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe.I've never seen anything like this. Have you? Do we have any old maps showing a pattern resembling anything close to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe.Was about to comment on that. If we can keep the strong blocking around for awhile, everything will be alright in the end. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The updated run of the 00z EURO was not good. We get teased at best with the Arctic Blast headed for the Midwest and East Coast like in the GFS. I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify. The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I've never seen anything like this. Have you? Do we have any old maps showing a pattern resembling anything close to this? 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify. The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense.What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 day-after-tomorrow.jpgAhhh, c'mon! That was such a real depiction..... 6z in 2 hours 14 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify. The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense.I'm hoping it doesn't verify. I don't like that L off the Canada coast headed inland. That would be an absolutely disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Prediction:Models will swing back to cold to VERY cold solutions. I am not sure if that will occur with tomorrow's 12z or 00z runs, but it will before Wednesday 00z. Basing this off of models not grasping the massively anomalous Hemispheric pattern change and due to this poor upper level pattern recognition. If I'm wrong, who cares. If I'm right, well then. Write it down. Mark your calendars. Remember this. 11:17 PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities. I just think the overall look of it is odd. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified. Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Lmfao!!! New York is going to fricken become an absolute ice-box!! -80 in the East with flash freezing cold moving down to Florida.... Meanwhile we see 50 degree rain. Bank on it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 FWIW the ECMWF does show snow for the lowlands. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified. Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough.That might be more than anyone would truly want, but sure, why not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I just think the overall look of it is odd.It makes perfect sense to me. The first NEPAC/EPO wavebreak fails to cycle and propagate poleward, hence U-MT remains higher and the waveguide slides east. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 -80 in the East with flash freezing cold moving down to Florida.... Meanwhile we see 50 degree rain. Bank on it! It does show it cold here also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 FWIW the ECMWF does show snow for the lowlands.Really!? C'mon that is absolutely pathetic... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too. Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Really!? C'mon that is absolutely pathetic... The GFS shows about 2 to 3 times that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The GFS shows about 2 to 3 times that. Not really based on the Kuchera Ratio (more accurate than 10:1). It looks pretty much the same on the GFS through same time period. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112800/228/snku_acc.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too. Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.pngThat's mind blowing. Eurasia October-November 2016 version 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too. Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.pngWill I have 6inches or more of snow at my house?. IF not... I do not give a flying goats a**... Next... AND yes I am being sarcastic and no goats were actually hurt in this statement. Nite! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Both the Euro and WRF have a low cutting through Vancouver island next Sunday with a fair amount of cold air on the north side. Something to watch. WRF depicts a nice swath of snow north of the border. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Heck lets just push it all back to day 10.... It is how we roll!LOOOL man this forum has been comedy gold tonight!!! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too. Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.pngMissourians are some lucky b*stards. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 It looks like 00z EPS favors a backdoor blast, or chance at one rather. Looks worse though than previous runs. 6z in 53 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I was wondering why there wasn't a single post about the 06Z. And then I saw it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 FWIW (i.e., not much), the CFS was pretty decent, except for the raging return to continent-wide torch as the New Year strolls in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I was wondering why there wasn't a single post about the 06Z. And then I saw it. http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4025/4605961954_42f3d57fb6_m.jpgYeah it's pretty chilly at the end of the believable range. And pretty much no blocking nearby after that. Definitely different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 5:30AM: For a couple days the models picked up on a major block... now it's having a hard time gaining traction at all. At face value we follow Jim's favored progression of working our way into winter.5:38AM: Fwiw the PNA AND EPO are still forecasted to go considerably negative into the second week of December. Edit: 6:18AM: Looking at the last 8 model runs for the December 7th period... It just really seems like there is no consistency in what happens with the energy west of the Aleutians around this time, and also the low pressure NEAR Hawaii. Models are kind of drifting all over the place with it. Most recent ones have it drifting pretty far north. I still say this whole thing is up in the air. So much high pressure trying to build in the North Pacific. We'll see... This is definitely a major pattern shake up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The folks in B.C would like the 06z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The folks in B.C would like the 06z. No complaints here. Gets cooler here sooner. 12z will probably be completely different so...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 FWIW (i.e., not much), the CFS was pretty decent, except for the raging return to continent-wide torch as the New Year strolls inGood thing it's worthless. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 WINTER CANCEL!Just thought I'd throw that out there and stir the "pot" a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The 6z was actually fair for Seattle. 850s drop to -8 and there is some snow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Not really based on the Kuchera Ratio (more accurate than 10:1). It looks pretty much the same on the GFS through same time period. The Weatherbell maps look better than that and they give amore detailed view. I wasn't lying. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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