Money Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall?Don't have WxBell subscription yet...maybe Okwx can post or if Bud has them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 18z GFS was pretty awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I second that. Punt and move on please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 00z CMC has a Colorado low at 240, I think it's the same one, but there's such a time discrepancy I don't feel confident saying for sure, regardless, the cold source modeled is not quite what did like to see. Plenty behind it, but not sure if there's enough in front of it to make things happen. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Â (1/1: 6.4") Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What do we have here? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/sfcmslp.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/850tw.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 HR 192: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/sfcmslp.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/850tw.conus.png This is what the 12z JMA hinted at earlier except this is even much stronger/west than that. Anyone have snow maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well, this is new...   Please please please give me this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well, this is new... ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_37.png  Please please please give me this! Yeah, came out of nowhere really. Looks like the high down south moves out quicker and doesn't suppress the storm like other models? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Well, if that even comes close to verifying, it means that the GFS and CFS pretty much had the best setup all along. Really impressive for the weaker models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Day 10 GFSNot as impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Yeah, I doubt the Euro verifies but it's fun to look at, and this past storm really was not on the models until around this time frame.  The low comes out from around the LA area and moves due north. How often does that happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Surprisingly, some of the greatest storms in both my and the great Lakes' history have happened that way. I thought up until yesterday and tonight that the models didn't make sense with their teleconnections but this actually does. Definitely won't say it is going to happen because the ECMWF is the most west based. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 00z EPS still looking good for the late weekend system.  It's getting colder down south towards OK as well.  Looks like a Gulf/OV cutter is on the table.  Unfortunately, it is the outlier, but we are getting closer to Day 5 where the Euro does better.  The problem I think the GFS is having (oddly enough its usually the EURO) is it keeps the energy farther west and south into the Baja of Mexico longer than the Euro/JMA.  Euro has the energy dig and move east, but the GFS just has it dig farther south and spins in N Mexico before ejecting out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.png Sits there till next Monday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png    00z EPS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 06z GEFS showing the CO LOW Day 8-9... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_32.png  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_36.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The GFS has a more dominant northern energy compared to the Euro and JMA with the late weekend storm.  So far this season, JMA has done well outside of 5 days, Euro has not...will it be time for the Euro to score a coupe???  Today's runs should be interesting if all the models begin to trend similarly.  Let the battle begin...  Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_7.png vs...GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112806/gfs_mslpa_namer_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Hopefully, by the weekend, the models will have more accurate info. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z GFS still not enthusiastic with the late weekend system...keeps the cut-off low down south through the weekend... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 That's enthusiastic enough for me. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Gosh, I wonder how all this plays out...Euro/JMA going with the cycling pattern, GFS not quite, but it is going back to the fantasy land storm outside Day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Â Still a ways out. Â However, it has shown up from time to time. Â Fun to look at regardless. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 snow 10.gif Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.   That's the beginning of Tom's map above that goes out further. Wish yours was a 120 hr map. Maybe it will be this Saturday lol. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 snow 10.gif Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  Did you copy and paste that image from their website???  I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work.  Curious how you were able to get that image on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 @ Jaster, here you go...  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 @ CentralNeb, guess the site now allows you to copy and paste images. Â They disallowed that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 @ Jaster, here you go... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2016112812/USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_276.gif Not showing any map Tom, just some error message text Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Not showing any map Tom, just some error message textTry now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site. Â I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it. Â Â Did you copy and paste that image from their website??? Â I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work. Â Curious how you were able to get that image on here.I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site. Â I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png @ Jaster, here you go... Where'd I go?  You gave me more snow with the 1st image, even though it was 12 hrs less of storm time  Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Gosh, I wonder how all this plays out...Euro/JMA going with the cycling pattern, GFS not quite, but it is going back to the fantasy land storm outside Day 10. Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm? I don't have the Euro, but Uncle Ukie is lining up for a kick-off on the 4th:  Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 On my phone but 12z Euro with a 982mb lower lakes bomb...track from LA to DTX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 On my phone but 12z Euro with a 982mb lower lakes bomb...track from LA to DTX Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm?   Edit: I'll take slightly weaker and east for $1,000 Alex...seriously though, climo says low party for SMI, congrats NMI Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Euro through day 7.5Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Euro is getting a little erratic the last few runs it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 A different look at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016   Haven't seen a snow map, but that track sure looks tasty for St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee & much of western MI...Kind of strange that the GFS isn't really picking up on it yet.   Massive hit for Northern IN and all of MI. lighter snows on the outskirts of that STL-CHI Man did this come outta nowhere fast! Suddenly this is fun since  2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Euro through day 7.5  ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_31.png @ Niko  - we've won the lotto if that run should verify  1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 So it's the European Union against the rest of the world... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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