Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

Thread time yet? You said based on 12z runs..

Yes, I will get one going now...

[james1976]

Gfs keeps showing a week wave fri nite. I assume that is prolly adding an inch to these snowfall maps for the sat-sun system.

[winterfreak]

Not even a flurry on the GFS.

[Tom]

Via Cohen's Twitter page, GEFS are advertising and intense cut-off where the glacier is going to build over the next 2 weeks...

 

 

[gosaints]

Euro seems to still be quite different in the saturday sunday timeframe

[james1976]

CMC is more reliable than Euro these days

[Tony]

So...do we start to not trust the Euro for the rest of this winter? Don't know what to think of this model.

[Tom]

So...do we start to not trust the Euro for the rest of this winter? Don't know what to think of this model.

Statistically, it's supposed to be the reigning champ inside 5 days.  However, this season it has been busting pretty bad, even within 3 days.

[Tom]

00z Dec 5th EPS snow forecast next 15 days...

 

[gosaints]

By day 10 EURO and GFS are on a different planet

[GDR]

Holy smokes your not kidding. How can two models be that far off??

[jaster220]

   Just 4 laughs

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Tom

 

That temp gradient on CFS wk2 is sweetness buddy! Just what you said would transpire eventually. And Okwx to be fair had said the same.

Thanks and yeah, you folks up there are going to have a blast the rest of the month. My fun starts in very late month into January it seems.

 

@Dubz, yes I'm aware it's December. I'm just ready to get the crummy part of this pattern over with for my area.

[hlcater]

   Just 4 laughs

 

20161206 Bliz threat joke map.PNG

 

 

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[Tom]

18z GFS for next Mon/Tue...

 

 

[james1976]

Storm and cold parade on 18z GFS! Love it!

[OKwx2k4]

Question as I look at the 18z GFS:

 

Why do the waves coming in that go south of KC keep dying out as they hit central KS or OK while the waves coming in north of KC gain strength as they move east? Would love an explanation an amateur like myself can understand. Thanks!

Northern stream dominant pattern. As long as it is the dominant branch, we'll continue to see the same thing. There are signs the southern branch could wake up in the coming weeks though and steal some of the energy out of or before it gets to the north.

[jaster220]

   Just 4 laughs

 

20161206 Bliz threat joke map.PNG

  

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LOL- covers everything but "not a chance"!

[Tom]

Thanks for the response!  Saying that the northern stream is dominant sounds more descriptive than explanatory.  WHY is it more dominant?  Does that mean that there is more energy in the northern stream?  And if so, what atmospheric conditions are causing that?  Typically there's more moisture as you go south to energize storms.  Where are these storms getting all their moisture?  I know I'm a bit ignorant.  I know enough to know about the different jet streams and thickness and highs and lows and blocking and whatnot.  But some of the more technical stuff is still beyond me.  Thanks again.

The system this weekend originates off the Pacific tapping into both Pacific & GOM moisture if you look at the map below...to answer your question, this is where the "fuel" is coming from.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120618/gfs_mslp_pwata_us_19.png

 

 

More-so, you need a lifting mechanism and we have a rather favorable jet stream structure optimizing the available low level moisture feeding into the system...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120618/gfs_uv250_us_20.png

[OKwx2k4]

Arctic blast, round 2 anyone? Here's hoping this can put a bend in that jet stream.

[Tom]

Arctic blast, round 2 anyone? Here's hoping this can put a bend in that jet stream.eps_slp_c_east_61.png

How does the Euro control look in terms of snow over next 15 days?  Similar to the GFS?

[An italian the loves snow]

Arctic blast, round 2 anyone? Here's hoping this can put a bend in that jet stream.eps_slp_c_east_61.png

Could you, please, post the 850 hpa temperature map for the same frametime?

Thanks a lot!

[Tom]

Great response.  Thank you!  I won't bother with anymore questions.  I am curious, though, why the northern Low gets all the moisture and energy when there's a more southern one in Oklahoma, closer to the gulf moisture.  It is what it is.  May be KC's third year in a row with a crappy winter.  I'm not a devout LRC follower, but I do believe in some degree of cycling.  This pattern is reminding me when Chicago got 82 inches a couple of years ago.  BTW, my last winter in Chicago was 2010-2011.  So at least I got to experience the 20-incher in February of that year.  And we had good winters the three years before that too.

That is something the weather will do and make you scratch your head.  Most likely, that energy is the dominant one this time around...another year, it would be the southern piece.  It's just the way it is I guess.

 

Edit: GHD I was my first documented Blizzard and I will never forget those 70mph wind gusts!  Seems so long ago that LSD was shut down.  It's too bad that within 10 or so days, the snow pack was long gone.  Hope things change for the better down the road for your region and we get to both experience some big dog cutters.

[Money]

Are we allowed to post weather bell maps here?

[Tom]

Are we allowed to post weather bell maps here?

From what I understand, yes you can...

[Tom]

Brazilian drinking the "cool aid"...LOL...Last 2 runs..

 

 

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2016120600/08808W4158N.png

 

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2016120512/08808W4158N.png

[Niko]

   Just 4 laughs

 

20161206 Bliz threat joke map.PNG

So, which is better...."High Chance or Strong Chance"?????? I swear, these people that post these maps are too much!!

[OKwx2k4]

How does the Euro control look in terms of snow over next 15 days? Similar to the GFS?

Similar I believe.

[OKwx2k4]

Could you, please, post the 850 hpa temperature map for the same frametime?

Thanks a lot!

 

That's surface but you get the idea.

[An italian the loves snow]

eps_t2anom_c_east_61.png

That's surface but you get the idea.

A little bit different from Gfs.

Thank you very much!

(Y)

[Andrew NE]

GFS is very active!

[winterfreak]

Nice carrot being dangled day ten on the GFS.

[Tom]

Over the last 4 runs, GEFS have been hinting at a major system around the 17th.  This could be correlating pretty well with the system that hit the 4 corners back on Nov 2nd-5th which I remember driving through.  Very early look as if this would be a Cutter.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120700/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120700/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_24.png

[OKwx2k4]

Gfs says I have a very very very small window for an inch of snow tomorrow. I'll take what I can get.

[Grizzcoat]

Nanook comes South?

 

[OKwx2k4]

3 arctic blasts in 3 weeks. Very nice.

[Money]

Tuesday Wave is back on the 6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120706/156/snku_024h.conus.png

[Money]

6z GFS is cold and snowy pretty much the whole run:

[james1976]

Run after run of the GFS is just awesome

[CentralNebWeather]

These long term temps look cold, however we are going to need more of a snow pack around here IMO to get as cold as projected.  History around here says to get these true arctic temps we can't have a bare ground, hopefully one of these storms will give us something more than a dusting.