Tony Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Starting to look interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z GFS for the Super Bowl weekend system... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Starting to look interestingYa, I look the fact more blocking in CA is showing up which is what the ensembles have been steadfast on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 The 12z GGEM is also showing a large scale storm the following weekend. Certainly looking like we will have a large scale impacting system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z GFS for the Super Bowl weekend system...Gross Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Grosslooks beautiful 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Ha ha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 The next central US cutter??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual. Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend. It better dig a bit from that position or we're gonna have another cutter going over our heads. I like the track so far because the way this winter has gone you know it will be cutting farther north. How far NW is the question and hopefully not too much of a cutter. From your lips to the Euro's ears, thus see below. EPS has shown us all winter a great initial placement of the SLP down in the panhandles, only to have zero help in the form of cold HP's to keep the things from cutting right over those of us in the Lakes. New month, old pattern?? The next central US cutter??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Looks like a beaut Clark! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 looks beautifulThis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Ya, that is a pretty darn big storm! TBH, the way this season has gone I'd rather be on the north side of a storm this far out than on the southern end. Agreed - lets see how hard this thing ends up cutting. If the blocking that you've been mentioning doesn't show up, people in the Dakota's will be greeted to another gift yet again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 The next central US cutter??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_11.pngYou think it's right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 You think it's right?Until something different occurs hard to ignore 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 The one after it should be good for me. This one was a sad drizzle fest back in December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Until something different occurs hard to ignoreIt already has though with the last couple storms. I went against all odds and predicted they wouldn't cut and that's what happened. My expectation is for this to eject into southern plains and then head E/NE but not a Dakotas special. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Climatologically speaking, we will be entering the period when the jet stream is the strongest. Systems tend to track farther south around this time of year anyway. The pressure pattern on the 12z Euro is likely wrong in southern Canada going against its own ensembles and the other global models. Back in December, we had a strong PV and during this forecast period it is non existent as heights are rising near Alaska/NW NAMER and near the Pole. There are certainly reasons to believe this storm will track on the southern end of current 12z Euro Op Day 9-10 guidance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z EPS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Let's see how this system evolves...I'm sure this will be an exciting storm to track.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Can't wait for Chicago to steal another NE snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 It already has though with the last couple storms. I went against all odds and predicted they wouldn't cut and that's what happened. My expectation is for this to eject into southern plains and then head E/NE but not a Dakotas special. not a dakotas special but can see the low crossing lake michigan somewhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Now we're cookin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowO Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Snow76, give it a rest already!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Overnight models were not friendly. All pretty much backed off on a strong storm. Loooong ways to go though. Even the almighty euro had a run last week that completely dropped this last storm and then came right back with it, so no reason for alarm yet imo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 The trend in the teleconnections is not our friendhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Overnight Euro run still showing a storm next weekend but not sure how the snow maps look... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Overnight Euro run still showing a storm next weekend but not sure how the snow maps look... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png And some GEFS members have been amped going up to N. Lk. Huron/Georgian Bay area like your previous Op maps show. I know EC weenies are kinda conceding that most tele's favor an App's or EGL's vs a ECoastal storm. They're best hopes are based on some kind of x-fer scenario if the storm can't cut due to blocking (1030mb HP location). BSR peeps say that it's supposed to x-fer W to E, but that could be from much further north than typically, since this season's cold is not overwhelming. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 At least now we have cold air in place, so that's a good thing. All we need now is a storm to blow up in the right spot and blocking to be in place and other teleconnections to be in their proper placement and we are in business. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 At least now we have cold air in place, so that's a good thing. All we need now is a storm to blow up in the right spot and blocking to be in place and other teleconnections to be in their proper placement and we are in business. One of my dad's fave sayings you just don't hear much anymore. He grew up in the 20's n 30's when that was a common saying in America - the land of opportunity! If your parents are still alive, consider yourself lucky, even if they drive you nuts sometimes! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Um. Where exactly did our winter/snow go? Lol So tired of cloudy cool crappy days. Havnt seen the sun in what feels like forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks...I will gladly accept 6-10" IMBY. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Um. Where exactly did our winter/snow go? Lol So tired of cloudy cool crappy days. Havnt seen the sun in what feels like forever.Same here. I saw peeks of sunshine yesterday and man, that felt great. Now, back to cloudy skies again. As for snow chances, February looks better than January, so we will see the white stuff very soon. Its only a matter of time. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GGEM looks very similar to what the 00z Euro looked like last night. GFS still having problems with forming a storm. I usually don't like posting long range GGEM maps but I will do it this time due to somewhat agreement towards the 00z Euro. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 I did get to see the sun while i was in Wisconsin over the weekend. Walked out onto the balcony sat morning and was like wholy cow turn that off it hurts. Lol. But it disappeared a couple hours later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z EPS snowfall over next 2 weeks... Not refined enough to pick up on much off of Lk Michigan even though it has some off of Erie and Ontario. Hmmm Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GGEM looks very similar to what the 00z Euro looked like last night. GFS still having problems with forming a storm. I usually don't like posting long range GGEM maps but I will do it this time due to somewhat agreement towards the 00z Euro. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png GFS keeps showing another SW in southern Canada vs. the other models showing a nice HP there. GFS = weak rainer until that gets figured out. That'll sort out as we get through the weekend clipper parade into Tues/Wed clipper Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 The EURO lost it too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Storm is gone on the euro. At least any appreciable one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 When it gets chilly its relatively dry. Seems to be the theme of the winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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