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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Problem is that at this time it's such a narrow band of warning snows. AND of course I will be in MPLS visting family...... so naturally DSM will get it's biggest snow event in over 2 years if the modeling is correct....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Verbatim should drop enough for you to break the 1 inch drought

 

Kuchera gets the 2-3 inch line to ORD.... Must be pretty high ratio stuff

 

12+ in SD

Surprisingly, both GFS/Euro almost identical with track thru Hr 144

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Quite the differences in the MJO forecast between the EURO/GFS...GFS dances around the cold phase thru the 21st of March...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

Euro suggesting no real distinct phase...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Wonder why it weakens thru IA

 

I think what that 144 hr snowfall map is showing is the first system this weekend grows as it leaves Iowa, and then the second system is organizing at the end of the run to the nw.  I'd like to see the next day or two of snowfall.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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I think what that 144 hr snowfall map is showing is the first system this weekend grows as it leaves Iowa, and then the second system is organizing at the end of the run to the nw. I'd like to see the next day or two of snowfall.

Ahhhh gotcha
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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18z GFS likes C IA/C IL...it has some impressive snow fall rates in excess of 2"/hr.  Where/When/IF this storm pivots just right, someone will cash in big.  I just hope it doesn't fizzle out as it heads east. 

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