December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

 

Might re-coat the ground here in SWMI via some minor LES tomorrow. This looks favorable:

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

The Gaylord NWS keeps a record of the snow fall totals for several major locations in their area. Here is the latest list. I wonder why the NWS office is in Gaylord and not Traverse City?

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

With Grand Rapids now at 37.0” December should be the snowiest month this winter. My guess is that January will come in at 2^nd place but 3^rd could be either February or March.  On the other hand March could come in 2^nd the total for GRR this winter should be in the 75 to 85” range. I now have clear skies (have not had much of that this month) and a temperature of 25° here at my house.

[OKwx2k4]

The Gaylord NWS keeps a record of the snow fall totals for several major locations in their area. Here is the latest list. I wonder why the NWS office is in Gaylord and not Traverse City?

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

With Grand Rapids now at 37.0” December should be the snowiest month this winter. My guess is that January will come in at 2^nd place but 3^rd could be either February or March. On the other hand March could come in 2^nd the total for GRR this winter should be in the 75 to 85” range. I now have clear skies (have not had much of that this month) and a temperature of 25° here at my house.

I love the stats. I need someone like you to join from my area.

[jaster220]

The Gaylord NWS keeps a record of the snow fall totals for several major locations in their area. Here is the latest list. I wonder why the NWS office is in Gaylord and not Traverse City?

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

With Grand Rapids now at 37.0” December should be the snowiest month this winter. My guess is that January will come in at 2^nd place but 3^rd could be either February or March.  On the other hand March could come in 2^nd the total for GRR this winter should be in the 75 to 85” range. I now have clear skies (have not had much of that this month) and a temperature of 25° here at my house.

 

 

 

Those back-to-back record seasons across NMI/UP were a snow-lover's paradise. SO much snow!! You see Traverse CIty's record of 195" in 96-97. What you don't see is that 95-96 was almost as much! And that's at the official measuring site down in the valley. My place was up in the forest about 400 ft elevation higher so I guarantee you I had quite a bit more as was always the case, especially in marginal temp situations early in the season, or during a warm spell. Prolly had well over 400 inches of snow at my place between those two seasons alone. Not to mention the 6 week LES blitz during the big freeze of Jan-Feb '94 that culminated with 40" depth. 3 out of 4 yrs were awesome (94-95 Nino was bad ofc) during that stretch.

[westMJim]

20161228 APX snowfall chart.PNG

 

Those back-to-back record seasons across NMI/UP were a snow-lover's paradise. SO much snow!! You see Traverse CIty's record of 195" in 96-97. What you don't see is that 95-96 was almost as much! And that's at the official measuring site down in the valley. My place was up in the forest about 400 ft elevation higher so I guarantee you I had quite a bit more as was always the case, especially in marginal temp situations early in the season, or during a warm spell. Prolly had well over 400 inches of snow at my place between those two seasons alone. Not to mention the 6 week LES blitz during the big freeze of Jan-Feb '94 that culminated with 40" depth. 3 out of 4 yrs were awesome (94-95 Nino was bad ofc) during that stretch.

Not sure where you lived, but in Kalkaska the snow fall for the winter of 95/96 was 192.5" with November of 95 coming in at 64.5" and in the winter of 96/97 Kalkaska came in with 211.9" with January having the most with 64.0" I could not find any records for Maple City that is reported as being the snowiest location in NW lower Michigan. BTW that record at the "Soo" they had 98.7" in that December and the most on the ground was a reported 49" and that was after a 3 day total of 56.5"

[jaster220]

Not sure where you lived, but in Kalkaska the snow fall for the winter of 95/96 was 192.5" with November of 95 coming in at 64.5" and in the winter of 96/97 Kalkaska came in with 211.9" with January having the most with 64.0" I could not find any records for Maple City that is reported as being the snowiest location in NW lower Michigan. BTW that record at the "Soo" they had 98.7" in that December and the most on the ground was a reported 49" and that was after a 3 day total of 56.5"

 

My place was on the east side of the county (Grand Traverse) towards Kalkaska. And yes, Nov '95 was krazy, with ground-zero for every storm being right between Kalkaska and east bay township (mby). Maple City is out in Leelanau County, NW of Traverse and sits in the center of another mini-snowbelt. Maple City was leading the way during 2013-14 iirc from an APX seasonal snow totals map they produce for each season.

[gabel23]

Hard to believe but we had tornadoes in our area in the month of December. 

 

http://www.weather.gov/gid/Christmas2016Tornadoes

[CentralNebWeather]

Hard to believe but we had tornadoes in our area in the month of December.

 

http://www.weather.gov/gid/Christmas2016Tornadoes

Just 6 miles east of me.

[Tom]

We have seen several battles this early season among the various models, but the American suite leads the pack since 12/12 of this month.  Recent 6-10 day trends show the Euro falling as King.  Believe it or not, its the GFS/GEFS that lead the pack by a big margin of late.

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

We have seen several battles this early season among the various models, but the American suite leads the pack since 12/12 of this month.  Recent 6-10 day trends show the Euro falling as King.  Believe it or not, its the GFS/GEFS that lead the pack by a big margin of late.

 

So, at this range, follow the ENS. Day 5 I read somewhere that the EC-EPS is a narrow leader. All the OPs are just playing 2nd fiddle flashing outcome extremes in one direction or the other.

[Niko]

D**n gorgeous day today. Finally, the sun came out after numerous days of cloudiness.

[jaster220]

D**n gorgeous day today. Finally, the sun came out after numerous days of cloudiness.

 

Don't need warm and sunny in the last week of Dec, we need frozen ground with snow on top. Then the sun can come out when it's 10º under the arctic dome. Get ur priorities right, lol

[OKwx2k4]

So, at this range, follow the ENS. Day 5 I read somewhere that the EC-EPS is a narrow leader. All the OPs are just playing 2nd fiddle flashing outcome extremes in one direction or the other.

Yeah. That's why at this point or when confused I have defaulted to the EC or GFS Ensembles. Some reason the EC leads the Op euro in changes by 12 hours or a full day at times.

[bainbridgekid]

LOT calling for a decent band of moderate to briefly heavy snow tomorrow afternoon for Chicago.

 

I've been in the Midwest nearly two weeks and have yet to see a flake of snow, so I'd really just love to get a half inch.

 

I think we have a pretty good shot at that.

[Andrew NE]

Does anyone know if Gary has laid out the cycle length of the LRC and where it is at right now. I assume we would be in #2?

[Tom]

Strong signal for a -PNA to open the New Year but the AO seems like it doesn't want to play ball...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

A lot of variability...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

It's nice to see a -NAO for once...but will it last???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

Meantime, I'm thankful for the 17" of snow we saw in December.

[Tom]

Does anyone know if Gary has laid out the cycle length of the LRC and where it is at right now. I assume we would be in #2?

I haven't seen him say on his blog an exact period but he does reference storm systems in the previous cycle that have fit the pattern of late.  It's roughly 58-60 days from what I can tell.  For instance, the Alaskan Ridge forecast to build on NYE was referenced to cycle through which correlated with the Oct 31st period.

[Tom]

GEFS just updated their AO forecast...now back to a -AO???

 

 

[jaster220]

While I will be pissed if yet another soaker hits SMI, it looks promising to at least re-whiten the ground between work and home later today/night. It's been a solid 11 days since any snow was flying across SWMI, but would be only 4 days without snow otg.

 

 

 

@ Niko

 

Heard there was a chance of snow in SEMI last night - did you get anything?? I know Toledo was reporting +SN last evening. 

[Niko]

Don't need warm and sunny in the last week of Dec, we need frozen ground with snow on top. Then the sun can come out when it's 10º under the arctic dome. Get ur priorities right, lol

Definitely not warm, just seasonable. I swear I haven't seen the sun for days, except yesterday . Its been cloudy w/ average temps and that can be annoying. As for snow, a few piles here and there on grassy surfaces, that's all and in parking lots.

[NEJeremy]

Despite being below normal from the 7th to the 18th and at one point being -5.1 degrees below normal for the month, we will end up probably 2 degrees above normal for the month overall and with less than 3" of snow as well.

[Niko]

While I will be pissed if yet another soaker hits SMI, it looks promising to at least re-whiten the ground between work and home later today/night. It's been a solid 11 days since any snow was flying across SWMI, but would be only 4 days without snow otg.

 

20161229 NWS GRR LES graphic.PNG

 

@ Niko

 

Heard there was a chance of snow in SEMI last night - did you get anything?? I know Toledo was reporting +SN last evening. 

Nope, zilch, nada, Zero!!!! Absolutely nothing, not even a flake fell from the sky. Most of the energy passed to my south.

 

FWIW: You might pick up a couple of inches of the white stuff later today as cold air rushes in. I doubt it will make it across the state, other than, a few flurries or snowshowers and if they do, no accumulations are anticipated with them. Tbh, if they are not going to be good squalls, then, I dont really care for them.

[Niko]

Snow fell in Athens Greece yesterday. Some accumulations were reported right in the heart of Athens.

 

@IndianaJohn

Snow also fell on the island of Chios. My relatives are tweeting pics. Pretty impressive stuff.

[jaster220]

Several SWS's hoisted by LOT, IWX, & IND regarding "dangerous" snow squalls..watch out! If we can't get a true bliz, we can get a morsel or crumbs.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN358 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-070>072-300300-CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR358 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016...Potentially Dangerous Snow Squalls Possible this Afternoon andEvening...Conditions will exist this afternoon and evening that may promotethe development of scattered snow showers and snow squalls. Snowsqualls are locally heavy bursts of snowfall that can lead torapid and drastic reductions in visibility over short distances,often accompanied by gusty winds. At their worst, squalls can besimilar to blizzard conditions, but far more localized and shorterin duration.Squalls will be possible across central Indiana, especiallynortheast of a Clinton to Bloomington and Bedford line, thisafternoon and evening, most likely in the 3 PM to 10 PM timeframe.Be alert for extremely localized areas of hazardous travelconditions this afternoon and evening.$$NIELD

[Tom]

LOT calling for a decent band of moderate to briefly heavy snow tomorrow afternoon for Chicago.

 

I've been in the Midwest nearly two weeks and have yet to see a flake of snow, so I'd really just love to get a half inch.

 

I think we have a pretty good shot at that.

You finally seeing some snow shower activity???  Just started about an hour ago here.

[ToastedRavs]

A long December when the most fun weather is the 48 mph winds we have today. With blue skies and brown ground

[jaster220]

You finally seeing some snow shower activity???  Just started about an hour ago here.

 

Radar returns exploding across SWMI, but nothing at the immediate lakeshore as has been the case with the warmer waters and air temps this month. Inland will be rocking though. Should drive into it on my commute at 4:30-ish

[jaster220]

Once again, snow has hit Marshall 80 miles inland before a single flake here at the lakeshore - so opposite the norm since I've worked here these past 4 yrs. November 12, 2013 St. Joseph had 17" while Marshall had the big goose egg "0"

[bainbridgekid]

You finally seeing some snow shower activity??? Just started about an hour ago here.

just on and off flurrirs. Took this picture at my cousin's house in Orland Park SW of Chicago.

 

Sadly the most snow I've seen fall in this entire 2 week trip to the Midwest.

 

[OKwx2k4]

just on and off flurrirs. Took this picture at my cousin's house in Orland Park SW of Chicago.

 

Sadly the most snow I've seen fall in this entire 2 week trip to the Midwest.

 

IMG_20161229_144522321.jpg

Lol. That's a sad picture. :-(

[Tom]

just on and off flurrirs. Took this picture at my cousin's house in Orland Park SW of Chicago.

 

Sadly the most snow I've seen fall in this entire 2 week trip to the Midwest.

 

IMG_20161229_144522321.jpg

Lol, I hear ya man! Not much to talk about over here during the past week+...Orlando Park is a nice area. I know a few peeps down that way. I like the wooded areas along with the rolling hills.

[jaster220]

Fun comparison of LM Ice coverage from current period to '13/'14...slow start I'd say...

 

 

 

2013-14...

 

  

Lol, I hear ya man! Not much to talk about over here during the past week+...Orlando Park is a nice area. I know a few peeps down that way. I like the wooded areas along with the rolling hills.

You guys need to road trip to Pure Michigan!! Just drove through a winter wonderland. Warm lake ftw Tom. Van Buren already had the 3-4" the NWS maps show and it was pound town still. Storm conditions tbh with that amount in just a few hrs. I know GRR has the holiday crew working this week, and they sure missed the memo about LES events over-performing this winter. Only 3 days without snow cover - incredible stuff!❄❄❄❄

[Niko]

Cloudy skies here with a few flurries at best, along with a brisk wind.

[jaster220]

The Crank while showing radar images of bombing NE low:

 

"Shield developing & getting the alien head look"

[OKwx2k4]

Euro mean of 2+ for me. Lock it in. It's gonna snow!!!!

[jaster220]

Caught what may be the last heavy streamer off Lake Michigan this morning around Kalamazoo. 94 MDOT crew normally on top of things in Kzoo Cnty, but had yet to get the lanes cleared and it was 30 mph stuff for about 20 miles. I had just enough to coat the ground in Marshall (0.7) but the peak zones Kzoo and west about 25 miles looked like a 4-6" event. Expecting to see plenty of plow banks and piles on my way home this pm.

 

Edit: seeing reports of 6.5-6.8" around Kzoo so I wasn't far off using the ole eyeball method

[Grizzcoat]

3.8" of snowfall this DEC at DSM. Never more then 1.7" in 24 hours. 4 official snow depth readings (taken at 12Z) of 1" or more---

 

Above normal temps which was seen by no one. Bastardi is going to bust by 5+F here. reason why he don't show the map anymore.

[westMJim]

Oh, the fickle finger of lake effect snow. We took a quick trip to Bay City yesterday. On the trip across the state there is still a lot of snow on the ground in the woods and not much snow on the ground in most open areas. In Bay City itself there of course is not much snow on the ground. Also of note is that while the inland lakes are ice covered the ice must be very thin as we did not see any ice fishing going on. And I have seen people on the ice when I would not have gone out. And on the way back last night we did not see any snow until we were well into the western part of the state. (west of M66) and then not too bad just light snow falling with around 2” near Howard City. Here at my house just enough to cover the ground fell however the roads were icy in this area. So while some areas in west Michigan got up to 6” of snow most areas received less. Right now there is some light snow falling and the temperature here is 28°

[westMJim]

With 9 days in a row of above average mean temperatures here in Grand Rapids our departure for the month is now at -2.1° so while this month will end up below average the departure will not be as great as it looked like a week or so ago. The snow fall here Is now up to 37.0” for December and now is at 37.8” for the season.

[Tom]

Wow, that is some insane snowfall rates from the EC storm yesterday!  4-6"+/hr