December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[mountainman]

These CFS sub monthlies...same source that predicted a cold snowy winter for us back in October?

[mountainman]

I highly doubt nation will torch for Jan/Feb.  I would bet money

[FroYoBro]

The post heard around the world.

 

Kind of a shame that an employed meteorologist in Oregon can't take a stab at a forecast for PDX in the medium range without getting destroyed for his "pessimism"... There are seriously nearly two pages of posts ripping that post to shreds like a mob of rabid, snow starved villagers with torches. "Hang that bloody heretic!"

 

I'd take Chris' analysis over the "I have a feeling the models are going to trend snowier"/"I have a sneaking suspicion the dry pocket is going to moisten"/"Even in a borderline scenario, my gut is telling me that it's going to start and stay as snow despite the models" analyses. I definitely want my doctor to stop chemo because he has a "gut feeling" the cancer will stop spreading.

 

I don't necessarily agree with Chris' forecast, but it's kind of outrageous that a met can't post a preliminary forecast without being told that they are "not accomplishing anything" -- I think posting a forecast with an analysis to back it up is accomplishing more than the "my palm is itchy so it's gonna snow!!!" posts, which set people up for heartbreak.

Yeah. He will probably end up being right too. 

[MossMan]

Winter cancel!!

[TT-SEA]

Winter cancel!!

 

Lets enjoy today!   Like the 60th day of rain in a row.    Each one of them are treasures and to be cherished.

[The Swamp]

The post heard around the world.

 

Kind of a shame that an employed meteorologist in Oregon can't take a stab at a forecast for PDX in the medium range without getting destroyed for his "pessimism"... There are seriously nearly two pages of posts ripping that post to shreds like a mob of rabid, snow starved villagers with torches. "Hang that bloody heretic!"

 

I'd take Chris' analysis over the "I have a feeling the models are going to trend snowier"/"I have a sneaking suspicion the dry pocket is going to moisten"/"Even in a borderline scenario, my gut is telling me that it's going to start and stay as snow despite the models" analyses. I definitely want my doctor to stop chemo because he has a "gut feeling" the cancer will stop spreading.

 

I don't necessarily agree with Chris' forecast, but it's kind of outrageous that a met can't post a preliminary forecast without being told that they are "not accomplishing anything" -- I think posting a forecast with an analysis to back it up is accomplishing more than the "my palm is itchy so it's gonna snow!!!" posts, which set people up for heartbreak.

Snow wiz is the biggest culprit for wishcasting.

 

It's so hard to get snow in these parts people just want it sooo bad. Certainly you can understand that?

[Brennan]

Snow wiz is the biggest culprit for wishcasting.

 

It's so hard to get snow in these parts people just want it sooo bad. Certainly you can understand that?

 

Snow Wizard is actually a pretty good forecaster when it comes down to it. What you are referring to (in July saying this winter has a good shot of delivering) is completely irrelevant and uncalled for. 

 

Truth of the matter is that around Thanksgiving the forecast models picked up on a large scale pattern shift that looked to be very favorable for us. They quickly planted a seed just after Thanksgiving and several models showed a pattern that featured snow and reinforcing cold shots. At one point the GFS and EURO were in agreement around day 9-10 and it looked reasonable that we would have a prolonged cold period with multiple chances of snow. As it got closer the reinforcing shots were kind of back and forth, but the initial shot of cold air and snow potential looked somewhat promising. As it has come closer, fine details have withered and the pattern just doesn't look all that favorable for much of anything but a GOA vortex  . There is still the potential for some snow, but the chances for widespread accumulating snow is low and in all likelihood this event won't be very memorable... Unless it insanely over performs and all comes together last minute... But I can see Seattle escaping this without accumulating snowfall, which is just sad. This kind of feels like a 1997-2003 type event (minus December 1998). 

[Phil]

Yup. It looks like November.

 

Simlar to a lot of the fall analogs I posted which all had cold December and return to nationwide warmth in January and February

Yeah, and I'm highly skeptical of that outcome. At least in January..February runs a higger +AO risk in +QBO/Niña years but it's not always the case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like another wet day on tap!

[snow_wizard]

Euro weeklies and CFS sub monthlies and monthlies all favoring a west coast torch in January, so I'm really hoping we get hit around the new year -- who knows how long we'll have to wait for a reload.

The CFS has had a number of cold runs for January over the past week. The ECMWF weeklies looked seasonable to me.

[chopper 918]

Say it isn't so because there is nothing more important than snow on the ground!!

 

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/hair-fire.gif

[snow_wizard]

Snow wiz is the biggest culprit for wishcasting.

 

It's so hard to get snow in these parts people just want it sooo bad. Certainly you can understand that?

It's not really that hard...assuming we go back to an older time regime which has a decent chance of happening with solar activity dropping to little ice age levels.

 

I wish you would just not comment on what I have to say. I have well supported reasoning for my forecast for this winter, and on the recent event have done nothing more than repeat what the models have been showing.

[MossMan]

[crf450ish]

Say it isn't so because there is nothing more important than snow on the ground!!

 

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/hair-fire.gif

Where do you get the animated emojis? Android phone?

[snow_wizard]

Shouldn't we take a look at the 12z Euro before we get the shorts out? One drunk 6z run and we are all jumping into the swamps of Puyallup!

The over-reaction on here has been amazing the past couple of days. In basic it will still get cold and there will probably be lowland snow.

[Deweydog]

Rod Hill just said it could snow or it could rain!!!

[snow_wizard]

I know this will sound ridiculous coming from a mod, but how do you put a user on ignore. I can't for the life of me find the way to do it.

[snow_wizard]

Snow Wizard is actually a pretty good forecaster when it comes down to it. What you are referring to (in July saying this winter has a good shot of delivering) is completely irrelevant and uncalled for. 

 

Truth of the matter is that around Thanksgiving the forecast models picked up on a large scale pattern shift that looked to be very favorable for us. They quickly planted a seed just after Thanksgiving and several models showed a pattern that featured snow and reinforcing cold shots. At one point the GFS and EURO were in agreement around day 9-10 and it looked reasonable that we would have a prolonged cold period with multiple chances of snow. As it got closer the reinforcing shots were kind of back and forth, but the initial shot of cold air and snow potential looked somewhat promising. As it has come closer, fine details have withered and the pattern just doesn't look all that favorable for much of anything but a GOA vortex  . There is still the potential for some snow, but the chances for widespread accumulating snow is low and in all likelihood this event won't be very memorable... Unless it insanely over performs and all comes together last minute... But I can see Seattle escaping this without accumulating snowfall, which is just sad. This kind of feels like a 1997-2003 type event (minus December 1998).

He is f ucking annoying alright. And I thought Tim was bad.

[EA_TTD]

I know this will sound ridiculous coming from a mod, but how do you put a user on ignore. I can't for the life of me find the way to do it.

Click where it says your username next to notifications.  A drop down menu will appear and you'll see "ignore prefs" in the second column at the bottom.  Click on that and away you go.

[Phil]

The CFS has had a number of cold runs for January over the past week. The ECMWF weeklies looked seasonable to me.

The weeklies are warm. Just have to make that clear for the sake of objectivity.

[snow_wizard]

The weeklies are warm. Just have to make that clear for the sake of objectivity.

I was just looking at the 45 day ECMWF ensemble on weatherbell. I thought that was the same thing.

[westcoastexpat]

The weeklies are warm. Just have to make that clear for the sake of objectivity.

Being objective gets you in trouble around here. Proceed with caution.

[HighlandExperience]

I'd be stoked if we got an inch Sunday night into Monday.

[GobBluth]

The Zimbabwe 05z ensembles are in with widespread 70's for Seattle in two weeks.

They'll have better computers than the gfs.

[chopper 918]

Where do you get the animated emojis? Android phone?

 

http://www.sherv.net/hair.fire-emoticon-583.html

[Jesse]

Just saw the new weeklies..eww. Blowtorches most of the nation through January under a raging +EPO. That's definitely not something you'd expect in a weak -ENSO/+QBO. In fact, since 1950, no such pattern has occurred in January during a weak Niña/+QBO winter.

I feel like these long long range models have been all over the place lately.

[crf450ish]

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/christmas/snowman-smiley-emoticon.gif

[Timmy]

12z isn't as bad as the 06z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

12z isn't as bad as the 06z[/quote

 

It isn't. Not great but a step back off the ledge

[Timmy]

Thursday's low is weaker too, maybe it stays further south?

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

Regardless of what happens the mountains look to do VERY well over the next week or so.

[Deweydog]

I feel like these long long range models have been all over the place lately.

They're only all over the place when they're bad. On the good days they're really onto something.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

They're only all over the place when they're bad. On the good days they're really onto something.

That sounds solid. I've never put a lot of stock into them regardless. And it could be argued that this way of looking at them is reversed for some, at least as it pertains to our region.

[Timmy]

Yuck, Thursday has ice storm written all over it at best

[FroYoBro]

I think that combined with some awful January news from our east coast buddies is what pushed some people over. In reality the 06z wasn't much worse than any other run, marginally warmer which is a trend I certainly wouldn't like to see continued, but it's not like it deleted the whole event.

 

I think people are very gun shy about even small warming trends at this range on the models, which is understandable I suppose.

Yeah, well there is a razor thin margin of error for this event to get low level snow. Everything kind of needs to go perfect for sticking snow. That means even if the models only look slightly worse, it could kill our chances. (At least for Monday-Tuesday) 

[Deweydog]

That sounds solid. I've never put a lot of stock into them regardless. And it could be argued that this way of looking at them is reversed for some, at least as it pertains to our region.

I'd like to see the CFS and exit polls abolished.

[Jesse]

I'd like to see the CFS and exit polls abolished.

Good luck with your crusade!

[bainbridgekid]

The post heard around the world.

 

Kind of a shame that an employed meteorologist in Oregon can't take a stab at a forecast for PDX in the medium range without getting destroyed for his "pessimism"... There are seriously nearly two pages of posts ripping that post to shreds like a mob of rabid, snow starved villagers with torches. "Hang that bloody heretic!"

 

I'd take Chris' analysis over the "I have a feeling the models are going to trend snowier"/"I have a sneaking suspicion the dry pocket is going to moisten"/"Even in a borderline scenario, my gut is telling me that it's going to start and stay as snow despite the models" analyses. I definitely want my doctor to stop chemo because he has a "gut feeling" the cancer will stop spreading.

 

I don't necessarily agree with Chris' forecast, but it's kind of outrageous that a met can't post a preliminary forecast without being told that they are "not accomplishing anything" -- I think posting a forecast with an analysis to back it up is accomplishing more than the "my palm is itchy so it's gonna snow!!!" posts, which set people up for heartbreak.

Destroyed? Really?

 

Chris is a good guy and is well respected on here. He can take some constructive criticism for a forecast.

 

Just about every response to his post was respectful and based in meteorological/model analysis.

 

You make it sound like people just called him a moron and said we'd get a foot of snow because their psychic said so.