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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

FWIW - Quite a few arctic type (-12C to -18C 850s) cold members on the 12z EPS Ensemble beginning around the 13th-14th.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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MR.SNOWMIZER
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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
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I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

FWIW - Quite a few arctic type (-12C to -18C 850s) cold members on the 12z EPS Ensemble beginning around the 13th-14th.

Yeah the Euro ensembles looked great in the mid-long range. Gives me hope that the pattern won't go back to total poo after our brush with cold next week.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

I know some people on here already have a subscription to WeatherBell but for those that don't, right now is a great time to sign up. They offer a 7 day free trial and these next 7 days you will get your moneys worth. I just signed up for my free trial. If the KING EURO delivers a big snow/ice storm, then I will probably subscribe. 

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
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Seems like a pretty weenie way to look at things. Why would you predict the low to be mostly dry when models are actually trending wetter as we get closer?

Not for the Whatcom county area. Basing expectations off previous experience can be better than any model sometimes

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luminen Collaborator

luminen

Posted
Posted

Total snow for the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF.   Certainly not backing down.    Most of this comes Thursday into early Friday.

 

ecmwf_tsnow_seattle_39.png

 

Holy frack...that would be amazing, even if it melts in a day or two. The anticipation with this event is killing me. I haven't seen a good snow in the PNW since Feb 2014 in Eugene.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Seattle NWS took down the Special Weather Statement and changed the forecast for the EPSL for Sunday from "rain showers changing to snow showers" during the day to "rain/snow in evening... snow showers after midnight".

 

Out with the optimist, in with the "realistic" one writing the discussion.

 

 

ECMWF is almost totally dry on Sunday during the day... precip ends early in morning.

 

Here is precip from 10 - 4 on Sunday...

 

ecmwf_slp_precip_seattle_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Monday will be better.

 

 

A little bit... but issuing an SPS for Sunday with rain changing to snow in Seattle is sort of silly when it will probably be partly sunny and in the 40s.   Actually a nice day compared to the mess we have had lately.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Sunday is not the time period we are looking at.... Monday/Tuesday is. I was quoting Sunday to show the differences in how NWS will forecast depending on who is the one behind the desk at that time. Nothing has changed with how Sunday was looking this morning vs. this afternoon, but their forecast has.

 

It got brought up a few pages ago, so I touched on it again.

 

I can't keep up with all the posts now!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Not liking the model trends today for the Portland area to see any accumulating snow. There's just too much southerly flow on Monday and the overrunning storm is going to have to trend a couple degrees colder still for anyone south of Olympia to have a chance. Obviously still a ways out.

Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there.

It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

Not liking the model trends today for the Portland area to see any accumulating snow. There's just too much southerly flow on Monday and the overrunning storm is going to have to trend a couple degrees colder still for anyone south of Olympia to have a chance. Obviously still a ways out.

I'm still liking PDX's chances of having a nice overrunning event. The updated run of the 12z KING EURO only has a high of 29 for PDX on Thursday. I would like it to show more snow but precipitation rates will change from now until then.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night.

Yeah... I think you guys were right about that. I'd love for the WRF to verify on that 4+ in on Monday but it is just looking a bit too warm and those soundings seem to contradict the GFS quite a bit. Just seems unrealistic. I think accumulation probably unlikely at the lowest elevations Monday. Maybe an inch if you're lucky?

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

It was pretty disheartening to see how unrealistic the soundings were last night.

That was odd. Going to be pretty hard to get sticking snow near sea level with that low hanging out directly North of you.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Drunk Uncle handles the Kona low a bit different. A tad slower development, and holds it further west a bit longer. That's the key feature is the Kona Low. If by some chance 00z runs tonight do the same, we may get a bit colder. If the Kona Low develops sooner it may hold even further southwest. Root for that. If it is further northeast, we may see slightly more moderate conditions.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

Early Monday morning isn't looking too terribly different than it was last night to me. Still marginal but some potential is definitely there.

 

I'd like to see QPF go up a fair amount to feel like there's a real shot at anything. As currently modeled, it's going to be very tough even for my location (about 300') to get below about 34. Great shot at seeing a lot of wet flakes, though.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

I'm still liking PDX's chances of having a nice overrunning event. The updated run of the 12z KING EURO only has a high of 29 for PDX on Thursday. I would like it to show more snow but precipitation rates will change from now until then.

 

Frozen precip is very likely for the area at the onset of the overrunning event. However, it's going to take a cooling trend on all of the models now for that precipitation to be snow and not just a quick sleet/zr mix. 

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crf450ish Enthusiast

crf450ish

Posted
Posted

NWS Spokane has continually lowered temps for my area Tuesday night. As of now, I am looking at a low of 8F. If it verifies, it will officially be the coldest temp I have ever experienced at any place I have lived. I have experienced colder temps of course but never at my place of residence.

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Would sure be fun to watch some snow falling at Centurylink on Sunday evening!

I'll be there! First game ever since tickets are so insane.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

FWIW the 18z NAM tracks the low further East over the Sound and thus has a very healthy CZ all day Monday for Northern King and most of Snohomish County.
 

It isn't super cold (highs in the upper 30's Monday around Seattle) but it shows a bullseye of over 0.5" of QPF 10 PM Sunday through 10 PM Monday, most of which would be snow for areas with a bit of elevation.

 

This would make me a very happy man. Wouldn't be a good setup for Portland though with the Southerlies.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Trainwreck Newbie

Trainwreck

Posted
Posted

NWS Spokane has continually lowered temps for my area Tuesday night. As of now, I am looking at a low of 8F. If it verifies, it will officially be the coldest temp I have ever experienced at any place I have lived. I have experienced colder temps of course but never at my place of residence.

I've recorded a -28 here in Redmond. It was February 2014. Minus 20 a few times in December 2013.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Nice model trends today. Much better scenario for snow in the Seattle area Monday night than yesterday's runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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