TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Snowing in Green Bay on the Packers game... fun to watch. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly.So you're saying we have a chance!? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 I like the purples near Shawnigan lake. I think 4"+ for that area is a pretty safe bet at this point. None of the runs are showing moisture as being an issue and your area will be cold enough for snow the entirety of the event. Victoria is more marginal, but the progression of this latest event looks better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Radar shoving the pscz towards Arlington now!!Had a quick ALL SNOW shower while picking out our tree...magical!!!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Snowing in Green Bay on the Packers game... fun to watch. Also dumping in Chicago. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Had a quick ALL SNOW shower while picking out our tree...magical!!!!Uhhhhhhh......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly.Sounds potentially exciting. Thanks for the outstanding detailed insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So you're saying we have a chance!? There's a chance you might. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Sounds potentially exciting. Thanks for the outstanding detailed insight.Thanks, no problem. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly.Transparent. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Middle of the day and its all snow here. Started out as sleet and has now switched over. A c-zone over downtown Seattle this evening could make for an interesting scene at the Seahawks game. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z NAM simulated radar. Shows a heavy snow band up the I-5 corridor around 8am tomorrow morning. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Transparent.Lol. The GGEM ensembles show how it could all fail and morph into 1999/00 repeat. Oh noes! http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6EE600F2-12A6-4AE3-B4E9-23FC7CA7E192_zpsrxibui08.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Middle of the day and its all snow here. Started out as sleet and has now switched over. A c-zone over downtown Seattle this evening could make for an interesting scene at the Seahawks game.Partly cloudy and 39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly. January 1950 historic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z NAM simulated radar. Shows a heavy snow band up the I-5 corridor around 8am tomorrow morning. namsnow.gif Guessing there is going to be a issue with school here tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Lol. The GGEM ensembles show how it could all fail and morph into 1999/00 repeat. Oh noes! There was no widespread lowland snow in early December 1999. Throw it out! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Middle of the day and its all snow here. Started out as sleet and has now switched over. A c-zone over downtown Seattle this evening could make for an interesting scene at the Seahawks game. I think you are going to share some very snowy pictures with us 24 hours from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 The 12z EPS mean is an improvement over 00z. Stronger high latitude blocking and a more displaced PV/cold core into western and central North America. Could still use more amplification out of the NPAC though, as there's still too much GOA vorticity there verbatim, which sends the majority of the cold east of the Rockies. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Continues to dump snow here and its accumulating again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Continues to dump snow here and its accumulating again.Congratufrickenlations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Graupel coming down here while the radar says rain. Not going to complain. The temp has started to fall every so slowly the last hour. Looking forward to the onset of colder temps as we enter this new pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 The 12z EPS mean is an improvement over 00z. Stronger high latitude blocking and a more displaced PV/cold core into western and central North America. Could still use more amplification out of the NPAC though, as there's still too much GOA vorticity there verbatim, which sends the majority of the cold east of the Rockies. Seems to be the general theme is that the Pacific is fighting like mad to stay open for business. Keeps us in a position of trying to hold cold patterns together with duct tape and bungee cords. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Continues to dump snow here and its accumulating again.Most you've posted in weeks, pretty convenient I'd say 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Seems to be the general theme that the Pacific is fighting like mad to stay open for business. Keeps us in a position of trying to hold cold patterns together with duct tape and bungee cords.Haha, that's an eloquent way of putting it, but yeah there's still that underlying systematic tendency to put a trough in the GOA domain. It'll be a fight all winter to keep that subdued unless we can get more persistent subsidence along/west of 120E in the tropics. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Omak went from a calm 40 to 35 the last hour with 35 mph winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Most you've posted in weeks, pretty convenient I'd say People post more when there is winter weather to talk about. I think you know that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Most you've posted in weeks, pretty convenient I'd say CongratufrickenlationsWe should definitely mock people who post snow pictures on a weather forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 We should definitely mock people who post snow pictures on a weather forum. No mockery, just an observation! It's what we do on weather forums! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Long time listener, first time caller here. ;-) Excited for the upcoming winter weather! Will provide observational updates from downtown PDX. 47 degrees and partly cloudy for now...just waiting on the fun. Cheers all! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 We should definitely mock people who post snow pictures on a weather forum. I actually love Timmy's snow pics from North Plains. Can't wait to see some tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 I actually love Timmy's snow pics from North Plains. Can't wait to see some tomorrow.Haha, I just wish this forum was easier to upload pics to. I hope I have some decent ones to post tomorrow. Just had a super light shower pass by. Just chunky rain! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Latest nam looks decent. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016120418&fh=45&xpos=0&ypos=261 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z GFSBegins in.... 2 minutesThink snow!!!! I would like to see the cold air persist a bit longer, then I am real interested in seeing the 6-10 day period as well if Ensembles continue to trend colder. Yeah, it's the 18z, but the Drunk Uncle can still be utilized for some things. He'll probably need a Breathalyzer test after this run.Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Haha, I just wish this forum was easier to upload pics to. I hope I have some decent ones to post tomorrow.Just had a super light shower pass by. Just chunky rain! I upload them just fine... save them to computer and then upload through an image hosting site and copy the URL. I have never been able to upload them directly from my phone though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Winter storm watch just issued for SEA starting tomorrow evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Seems to be the general theme is that the Pacific is fighting like mad to stay open for business. Keeps us in a position of trying to hold cold patterns together with duct tape and bungee cords. That goes for 96.8% of winters. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Yeah I don't really want to use my computer though. Or an image hosting site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Haha, I just wish this forum was easier to upload pics to. I hope I have some decent ones to post tomorrow. Just had a super light shower pass by. Just chunky rain!Either view the forum as desktop mode from your phone, or upload to imgur.com and use that link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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