December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Funky pattern on the Euro.

 

 

12Z ECMWF is perfection at the surface.    Good snow on Friday into Christmas Eve and then it stays cold with no precip from Saturday night through Tuesday... then a little overrunning snow on Tuesday night.     

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF is perfection at the surface. Good snow on Friday into Christmas Eve and then it stays cold with no precip from Saturday night through Tuesday... then a little overrunning snow on Tuesday night.

For you or for the majority?

[TT-SEA]

For you or for the majority?

 

 

For everyone... the big warm-up on Christmas Day and beyond from the 00Z run is gone.  

[BLI snowman]

EURO ALERT?

 

 

Its weird SW cutoff fetish is getting the best of it, this the odd occasion where it favors us for cold for a certain run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the KING EURO, funky or not...

[TT-SEA]

Nice overruning snow event for everyone on the 12Z ECMWF on day 9 into day 10 (next Tuesday night into Wednesday).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The good news is the GFS was a lot better. 

[ShawniganLake]

For everyone... the big warm-up on Christmas Day and beyond from the 00Z run is gone.

Jim takes the day off and all hell breaks loose.

[Parksvillewx]

Just occasional flurries here this morning. 1/4" accumulation. I'm in the snow shadow of the Vancouver island mountains with this setup.

 

Same. I'm in a shadow too with systems coming in from the NW. Trying not to complain since I've had 4" sitting on the ground for 2 weeks as of tomorrow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The mm5 gfs has shown 4 inches of snow for me tonight for 3 days now. Even on the ultra high res model this morning. We will see.

[TT-SEA]

Jim takes the day off and all hell breaks loose.

 

ECMWF has trended much better for cold... but I am thinking its not the best pattern for his location to get snow on the 12Z ECMWF with a c-zone in the typical spot up here and all the way up to Randy.  

 

He would also warm up fast on Christmas morning just like the big snow event for many last Friday if the 12Z GFS solution verified.      Seems like every pattern is much better for snow all around the SW King County and Pierce County areas.     

 

Lets hope the ECMWF is right because then at least it would be cold for everyone.   The 12Z GFS would result in a rainy Christmas Day for some and wonderfully snowy for others... you think his hissy fit was bad last week?   

[Jesse]

Chilly winter so far. Looks to stay chilly.

[seattleweatherguy]

ECMWF has trended much better for cold... but I am thinking its not the best pattern for his location to get snow on the 12Z ECMWF with a c-zone in the typical spot up here and all the way up to Randy.

 

He would also warm up fast on Christmas morning just like the big snow event for many last Friday if the 12Z GFS solution verified. Seems like every pattern is much better for snow all around the SW King County and Pierce County areas.

 

Lets hope the ECMWF is right because then at least it would be cold for everyone. The 12Z GFS would result in a rainy Christmas Day for some and wonderfully snowy for others... you think his hissy fit was bad last week?

So Christmas is more of a south west wa snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What seems to be coming into focus in my opinion is that our chances for coll weather and lowland snow are going to continue into the foreseeable future. The details and locations favored with change, but there are going to be a lot of chances. I agree with Justin, so far it has a very 92-93 like feel.

[TT-SEA]

So Christmas is more of a south west wa snow

Would be best for Portland and Seattle northward with offshore flow. But ECMWF is bone dry and cold on Christmas for everyone. Probably going to be right.

[snow_wizard]

http://www.spaceweather.com

 

 

Sunspot number: 0 

What is the sunspot number?[/size]

Updated 18 Dec 2016[/size]

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 2 days

2016 total: 28 days (8%)  

2015 total: 0 days (0%) [/size]

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)[/size]

Updated 18 Dec 2016[/size]

Looking like this is going to be huge minimum this time. We're going to find out pretty soon just how good that is / isn't for us.

[Jesse]

Snowshoeing by Cascade Locks today. Lots of snow. Enough to cover several packs of Juciy Fruit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly winter so far. Looks to stay chilly.

 

Yep, Very happy to see this. No signs of arctic air on the horizon, but we don't need arctic air to do well. 2013-14 had two arctic blasts and very little snow for W. Washington, 2010-11 had two arctic blasts and very little snow for W. Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowshoeing by Cascade Locks today. Lots of snow. Enough to cover several packs of Juciy Fruit.

 

My brother is taking bets on how the parking lot snow piles will last in The Dalles. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of dense fog in the Willamette Valley today. Going to be a chilly afternoon in those places...Looks sunny up toward my place...

 

http://oregonstateparks.org/index.cfm?do=conditions.dsp_parkConditions&parkId=151

[Deweydog]

Snowshoeing by Cascade Locks today. Lots of snow. Enough to cover several packs of Juciy Fruit.

 

Lots of snow in that spot. NOT a coincidence.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible improvement in a number of time fames / models today.

 

1. ECMWF and GFS both show it cold enough for snow for Seattle into tomorrow morning

2. Both models show lowland snow around Christmas

3. ECMWF shows 850s dropping to -9 between Christmas and New Years with some lowland snow

4. CFS (4 run composite) now shows a major cold snap between Christmas and New Years. Was not showing that yesterday

5. ECMWF and GFS both show PNA at -3 around Christmas

 

It should be noted the CFS has outperformed the GFS in predicting near term cold waves on multiple occasions in the past that I have seen.

 

Very exciting stuff!

[Deweydog]

What seems to be coming into focus in my opinion is that our chances for coll weather and lowland snow are going to continue into the foreseeable future. The details and locations favored with change, but there are going to be a lot of chances. I agree with Justin, so far it has a very 92-93 like feel.

Been a while since we've seen a long stretch of consistently coll winter weather.

[seattleweatherguy]

Would be best for Portland and Seattle northward with offshore flow. But ECMWF is bone dry and cold on Christmas for everyone. Probably going to be right.

Offshore flow can cause a conversion zone or that's different?

[snow_wizard]

Yep, Very happy to see this. No signs of arctic air on the horizon, but we don't need arctic air to do well. 2013-14 had two arctic blasts and very little snow for W. Washington, 2010-11 had two arctic blasts and very little snow for W. Oregon.

Plenty of lowland snow chances over the next two weeks at face value.

[Front Ranger]

Funky pattern on the Euro.

 

Fairly similar to what we just saw.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Light snow here and 28F. About half an inch of new snow and 5" on the ground in total.

[Deweydog]

Fairly similar to what we just saw.

Somewhat.

[Front Ranger]

Same. I'm in a shadow too with systems coming in from the NW. Trying not to complain since I've had 4" sitting on the ground for 2 weeks as of tomorrow.

 

How unusual is that for your area?

[westcoastexpat]

How unusual is that for your area?

 

Likely hasn't happened since December 2008.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z EURO shows a modified Arctic Blast arrive on Christmas Day. Unfortunately it shows a system head into California the next day. If it heads into the PNW it would give us Snow. It's still a long ways away and we just saw this past week how originally the system that brought many of us Snow was headed to California but at the last minute decided to head up here.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121812/168/850t.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121812/192/850t.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121812/192/sfcmslp.na.png

[Front Ranger]

What seems to be coming into focus in my opinion is that our chances for coll weather and lowland snow are going to continue into the foreseeable future. The details and locations favored with change, but there are going to be a lot of chances. I agree with Justin, so far it has a very 92-93 like feel.

 

1948-49/1970-71/1992-93. 

[BLI snowman]

The mm5 gfs has shown 4 inches of snow for me tonight for 3 days now. Even on the ultra high res model this morning. We will see.

You should do well, tonight is a good cold air damming setup with the SE flow aloft.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how little time the 925mb temps spend above freezing on the latest WRF. Everything is trending colder at this point.

[Parksvillewx]

How unusual is that for your area?

 

Quite unusual. Usually it's 2-3 days then a transition event washes it all away. 

[Front Ranger]

 

Lots of snow in that spot. NOT a coincidence.

 

One of the best commercial jingles of all time. Probably the main reason we even remember Juicy Fruit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You should do well, tonight is a good cold air damming setup with the SE flow aloft.

Yeah should be. The mm5 snow map is strange, it usually shows snow clear out towards the canal but it is only showing the blob in the middle of the county and that area is right on top of green and gold mountain and me.

[snow_wizard]

Quite unusual. Usually it's 2-3 days then a transition event washes it all away.

Old time pattern.

 

It used to happen much more often.

[The Swamp]

Is tonight's snow mostly Seattle north?

 

These things dropping in from the north kick up a nice southerly flow. Hoping we don't scour out the cold too quickly in the swamp.

[Parksvillewx]

Likely hasn't happened since December 2008.

 

I think you're right. Ironically enough, Dec 18th, 2008 was the day after the major snow event. Facebook reminded me this AM with the pictures I posted 8 years ago today when it finally stopped snowing.