December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Seattle has gotten so absurdly liberal I wouldn't live there in a million years. They police your garbage for crying out loud. That and the fact the city proper has a totally loser climate.

I suppose when I say Seattle I mean King County.

[Kayla]

The gorge one is too.

 

I just don't see enough WAA or onshore flow before the moisture arrives at this point. PDX is sitting at a 28º dp right now. Southerly push doesn't happen until late morning it would seem.

 

You thinking things moderate earlier?

[Deweydog]

I just don't see enough WAA or onshore flow before the moisture arrives at this point. PDX is sitting at a 28º dp right now. Southerly push doesn't happen until late morning it would seem.

 

You thinking things moderate earlier?

Well, there's no gorge outflow. Whatever cold is around is already here. I'm sure most people will start as sleet or maybe very brief snow.

[snow_wizard]

Going to be interesting to see if the nws forcast holds tonight. Rain developing with not even a hint of snow. Meanwhile its 32 here and calm. Abservvations i use on the east side of Olympics say the column will support snow here. Time will tell.

I think they are looking at the SW winds at 850mb. A bad scenario for it to be snow for any length of time. I would never bet against your area in a transition event though.

[HighlandExperience]

I think they are looking at the SW winds at 850mb. A bad scenario for it to be snow for any length of time. I would never bet against your area in a transition event though.

How long you think east king county stays snow?

[snow_wizard]

I suppose when I say Seattle I mean King County.

No doubt some of King County is awesome. Some incredible diversity in this county. Seattle itself has about the worst there is to offer in every regard.

[Front Ranger]

Seattle has gotten so absurdly liberal I wouldn't live there in a million years. They police your garbage for crying out loud. That and the fact the city proper has a totally loser climate.

 

Eh, depends on what you're comparing to. Seattle does get more sunshine and dry weather than most Puget Sound locations thanks to being directly in the Olympic shadow. And they tend to do well with Arctic fronts, at least better than most places further south. See: Nov 2010, Nov 2006, Dec 1990, Feb 1989, Mar 1989, etc.

[snow_wizard]

How long you think east king county stays snow?

We would be lucky to have even 2 hours of snow IMO. None is quite possible.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS 

 

The main issue with the precipitation beginning tonight will be type,
especially in the Columbia River Gorge, PDX/Vancouver Metro, and the
immediate east side of the northern Coast Range. 12Z models were
consistently scouring out the cold air before the precip arrives
Monday morning between about 12Z and 15Z, but based on continuing
easterly winds, particularly near the gorge, this doesn`t seem
likely. Have been watching the dewpoint at The Dalles today, since
that`s where the air comes from in easterly flow, as 06Z and 12Z
models showed it skyrocketing up to about 28 degrees this afternoon.
If that were to happen, it would be an indication of the air mass
moderating and would indeed make rain the likely precipitation type
through and near the gorge Monday morning. However, the KDLS dewpoint
has been almost unchanging, rising only to 16 degrees as of 330 pm.
In fact, the KDLS air temperature is currently only 20 degrees, so
models don`t appear to have much of a grasp at all on the current
situation.

[snow_wizard]

Eh, depends on what you're comparing to. Seattle does get more sunshine and dry weather than most Puget Sound locations thanks to being directly in the Olympic shadow. And they tend to do well with Arctic fronts, at least better than most places further south. See: Nov 2010, Nov 2006, Dec 1990, Feb 1989, Mar 1989, etc.

Mostly it's terrible for cold. I get at least 4 times the number of freezing low temps as they do on average. They do somewhat well with snow during Fraser River blasts, but then again the whole county does. I guess that is one thing that bums me about this current cold wave...most certainly a Fraser River event and we got royally screwed.

[Weather101]

Salt in the wound

Should I stopp reporting my snow? I didn't complain when others saw snow last week..

[Weather101]

I'm so happy for you. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

What's you're issue with me? lol I may not always agree with you but doesn't mean I dislike you at all.

[snow_wizard]

PDX NWS 

 

The main issue with the precipitation beginning tonight will be type,

especially in the Columbia River Gorge, PDX/Vancouver Metro, and the

immediate east side of the northern Coast Range. 12Z models were

consistently scouring out the cold air before the precip arrives

Monday morning between about 12Z and 15Z, but based on continuing

easterly winds, particularly near the gorge, this doesn`t seem

likely. Have been watching the dewpoint at The Dalles today, since

that`s where the air comes from in easterly flow, as 06Z and 12Z

models showed it skyrocketing up to about 28 degrees this afternoon.

If that were to happen, it would be an indication of the air mass

moderating and would indeed make rain the likely precipitation type

through and near the gorge Monday morning. However, the KDLS dewpoint

has been almost unchanging, rising only to 16 degrees as of 330 pm.

In fact, the KDLS air temperature is currently only 20 degrees, so

models don`t appear to have much of a grasp at all on the current

situation.

I'm not so sure. The cross Cascade gradients are quite anemic with a lot of southerly component.

[snow_wizard]

What's you're issue with me? lol I may not always agree with you but doesn't mean I dislike you at all.

You just seem to attack everything I say. Maybe I'm just pissy about my 4 year snow drought though.

[Bryant]

Should I stopp reporting my snow? I didn't complain when others saw snow last week..

You have no room to complain with the totals you have seen so far

[Front Ranger]

Mostly it's terrible for cold. I get at least 4 times the number of freezing low temps as they do on average. They do somewhat well with snow during Fraser River blasts, but then again the whole county does. I guess that is one thing that bums me about this current cold wave...most certainly a Fraser River event and we got royally screwed.

 

I hear ya. Any big city will have warmer low temps, of course.

 

There was never any strong front with this round of Fraser outflow, so it's not terribly surprising that your area didn't score much from that.

[snow_wizard]

I hear ya. Any big city will have warmer low temps, of course.

 

There was never any strong front with this round of Fraser outflow, so it's not terribly surprising that your area didn't score much from that.

I agree. I figure it has to do with how the whole event has been seepage down here. Kind of lends credence to the theory this has all just been warning shot material so far.

[Weather101]

You just seem to attack everything I say. Maybe I'm just pissy about my 4 year snow drought though.

Alright, well I apologize if it seems that way.

[TT-SEA]

Great colors at sunset tonight... this is Mt Si just a few minutes ago from the front window.   Purple mountain majesty.  

[Weather101]

You have no room to complain with the totals you have seen so far

True

[Perturbed Member]

I'm not so sure. The cross Cascade gradients are quite anemic with a lot of southerly component.

 

Yeah I'm sure that we're going to start this event out as a bunch of very cold rain here. 

[snow_wizard]

I think if I was going to choose anywhere in this state to live based soley on weather I would choose Waterville or Douglas on the Waterville Plateau. Consistently just about as cold as Winthrop and incredibly snowy for how dry it is. Wide open views and plenty of windy periods to create huge drifts. It always amazes me how much more harsh it is than pretty much anywhere around it.

 

Tough sell for the wife though.

[Weather101]

I think if I was going to choose anywhere in this state to live based soley on weather I would choose Waterville or Douglas on the Waterville Plateau. Consistently just about as cold as Winthrop and incredibly snowy for how dry it is. Wide open views and plenty of windy periods to create huge drifts. It always amazes me how much more harsh it is than pretty much anywhere around it.

 

Tough sell for the wife though.

Is she more of a summer fan?

[TT-SEA]

Is she more of a summer fan?

 

 

Probably more of a civilization fan.  

[Weather101]

Probably more of a civilization fan.

I looked it up, I see what you mean.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Probably more of a civilization fan.

 

Its not a far drive to Wenatchee.

[snow_wizard]

Is she more of a summer fan?

Too remote.

[snow_wizard]

Probably more of a civilization fan.

Plenty of rednecks there. What more could you want?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High culture to Jim and I is a six pack of Coors.

[Weather101]

High culture to Jim and I is a six pack of Coors.

12 pack

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

High culture to Jim and I is a six pack of Coors.

I can't wait to get out of western wa. My property is very remote but only just a hr and 15 to omak and 45 mins to tonasket.

[TT-SEA]

I can't wait to get out of western wa. My property is very remote but only just a hr and 15 to omak and 45 mins to tonasket.

 

 

Just an hour and 15 to Omak.    

[TT-SEA]

For the record... the WRF did have a great handle on precip today.   Not always the case.  

 

4 hours later and the coastal radar still looks about the same.   Certainly was not 'clueless'... have to give credit when its right.  

 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.15.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just an hour and 15 to Omak.    

I wont have a reason to go to town more than once a week. Its a good drive and good roads. The main reason to be there is to have no one living anywhere near me. I have to use a spotting scope to even see a house or cabin lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just an hour and 15 to Omak.

Some people hate cities. I hate that I have to go to Salem everyday. I don't like going into Silverton on weekends if I can help it

[TT-SEA]

Some people hate cities. I hate that I have to go to Salem everyday. I don't like going into Silverton on weekends if I can help it

 

 

I know all of that.   I don't like going to Seattle very often.  Bellevue is fine though... easy in and out.

 

Just funny that he was saying its only an hour and 15 minutes to Omak which many consider to be very remote as well.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know all of that.   I don't like going to Seattle very often.  Bellevue is fine though... easy in and out.

 

Just funny that he was saying its only an hour and 15 minutes to Omak which many consider to be very remote as well.   

 

I went to Omak about a month ago...Interesting town...

[ShawniganLake]

Going to be interesting to see if the nws forcast holds tonight. Rain developing with not even a hint of snow. Meanwhile its 32 here and calm. Abservvations i use on the east side of Olympics say the column will support snow here. Time will tell.

My area is very similar to yours in holding onto the cold longer during SE flow during transition or borderline events. Should be a close call here too. The afternoon drizzle is currently becoming mixed with a few wet snow flakes here. Might be a good sign for you later.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I know all of that.   I don't like going to Seattle very often.  Bellevue is fine though... easy in and out.

 

Just funny that he was saying its only an hour and 15 minutes to Omak which many consider to be very remote as well.   

Have you been there? They have a home depot, walmart, one of the biggest hardware stores in the state several grocery stores and pretty much everything else you would need.

[Parksvillewx]

For the record... the WRF did have a great handle on precip today.   Not always the case.  

 

4 hours later and the coastal radar still looks about the same.   Certainly was not 'clueless'... have to give credit when its right. 

 

You're right. I was skeptical when I saw the WRF snowfall last night and read the Environment Canada snowfall warning but it looked like it nailed it from what I've seen on twitter. 3"-4" on the mainland/sunshine coast, nothing in my area and a dusting on the south island.