December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

It's a great run. Think back to 2014/15..even tonight's GFS run would be great by that winter's standards.

We had a pretty decent cold snap about now in 2014. A guy in Colorado really thought PDX was gonna have a sub-freezing day with it.

[Phil]

We had a pretty decent cold snap about now in 2014. A guy in Colorado really thought PDX was gonna have a sub-freezing day with it.

The one in November? I remember a bunch of Tim pictures but IIRC it wasn't very long lasting, no?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

It's a great run. Think back to 2014/15..even tonight's GFS run would be great by that winter's standards.

I guess I had more hope for this than just "better than last year" type of event.

[Phil]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/216/500h_anom.na.png

Brrrr.

[Jesse]

We had a pretty decent cold snap about now in 2014. A guy in Colorado really thought PDX was gonna have a sub-freezing day with it.

Verbatim even the 00z GFS is better than anything we have seen the last two winters.

[MossMan]

We can sleep now.

[Deweydog]

Insane amount of cold air at 216 coast to coast.

[Bryant]

There we go!!!!

 

http://i.imgur.com/C9U8eUh.png

How many clicks did that take?

[Deweydog]

Verbatim even the 00z GFS is better than anything we have seen the last two winters.

Sure is.

[Kayla]

Looks like it's going to get cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

How many clicks did that take?

Honest to God, ONE

 

I was just as surprised. Trust me. It MUST mean something!!!

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is simply majestic.  Incredible block and very cold.  It has 850s of -10 or lower for SEA from day 5 onward.  At face value highs below freezing and lows 10 to 20.  Probably some singles if there is good snow cover.

[Bryant]

I guess I had more hope for this than just "better than last year" type of event.

Does the Euro not make you happy? Can't have all your marbles in the GFS

[Timmy]

I think you got more crap for implying that people are living in the clouds just because they didn't totally lose their s**t over a few slightly less favorable GFS runs.

I get that. And I can take it. I'm not saying they should lose it, but the fact that up until our last event in mid December people were discounting whatever model didn't show what they wanted, until they were stuck with with obscure models trying to place low pressure in a favorable location.

[Heavy Snow]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/216/500h_anom.na.png

Snowstorm as a L drops in from the NNW. Reminds me of the system that hammered the Central/Southern Valley in December 2013. Still a long ways out but good to see this snow potential.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[Phil]

I guess I had more hope for this than just "better than last year" type of event.

This looks like the best longwave pattern since at least 2010/11, perhaps since 2008/09.

 

Obviously we're not repeating 1949/50.

[snow_wizard]

I guess I had more hope for this than just "better than last year" type of event.

 

I think you misunderstood.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We can sleep now.

This is what some people will look like after this ride.

[Jesse]

I get that. And I can take it. I'm not saying they should lose it, but the fact that up until our last event in mid December people were discounting whatever model didn't show what they wanted, until they were stuck with with obscure models trying to place low pressure in a favorable location.

That definitely happens too. The weenieism runs strong both ways sometimes.

[Bryant]

Honest to God, ONE

 

I was just as surprised. Trust me. It MUST mean something!!!

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[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 massive snow storm potential. Major backdoor blast.

 

Boo Hooo the GFS was baddddddd and now the cold isn't comingggggggg

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Kayla]

So much panicking by two people who live at over 1,500ft!??

 

Nice snowstorm at day 8 on the euro as the reload comes. 

[snow_wizard]

This looks like the best longwave pattern since at least 2010/11, perhaps since 2008/09.

 

Obviously we're not repeating 1949/50.

 

I think this will top anything this century for the NW except maybe December 2008.  I think this could last longer though.  We could easily beat any January event since at least 1980.

[Timmy]

Does the Euro not make you happy? Can't have all your marbles in the GFS

Lol, you really don't get me. I'm sorry it's been years since I was this active on a forum. I was never rooting for the gfs, just kept throwing it out either. I just wanted people to see a negative trend with a little objectivity, which as it turns out is a fools errand here.

 

But to be honest I would absolutely love for it to verify verbatim, but am not convinced it won't continue to trend toward the gfs as it did slightly tonight.

[snow drift]

This is what some people will look like after this ride.

Model riding is rough

[Bryant]

Day 10 massive snow storm potential. Major backdoor blast.

 

Boo Hooo the GFS was baddddddd and now the cold isn't comingggggggg

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/240/500h_anom.na.png

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[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think anyone is losing their ,just pointing out the obvious.

[snow_wizard]

This is what some people will look like after this ride.

 

Downright scary. 

[Heavy Snow]

Day 10 massive snow storm potential. Major backdoor blast.

 

Boo Hooo the GFS was baddddddd and now the cold isn't comingggggggg

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/240/500h_anom.na.png

Oh yeah! Even bigger snowstorm coming. Looks like a December 2008 setup.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[Kayla]

I don't think anyone is losing their s**t,just pointing out the obvious.

 

Said the guy losing his ...

[Timmy]

So much panicking by two people who live at over 1,500ft!??

 

Nice snowstorm at day 8 on the euro as the reload comes.

 

Bro, don't short-change me. I'm at 1500'!

 

 

 

 

In all seriousness, no panicking in my end, just pointing out model trends.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 has kind of a Jan 1969 look to it.

[Phil]

How many clicks did that take?

Lol, I think it's legit.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5E97946B-4BA2-4717-9355-D3FE3935A938_zpsic8kcgug.png

[Heavy Snow]

This is exactly the type of EURO run I wanted to see tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol, you really don't get me. I'm sorry it's been years since I was this active on a forum. I was never rooting for the gfs, just kept throwing it out either. I just wanted people to see a negative trend with a little objectivity, which as it turns out is a fools errand here.

 

But to be honest I would absolutely love for it to verify verbatim, but am not convinced it won't continue to trend toward the gfs as it did slightly tonight.

I see where you are at with this, don't let the attacks get you down and I hope you stay active on here. It's a good forum and soon all we ll be forgotten either way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Said the guy losing his s**t...

But I am not. It's all good though, I will continue to provide objective analysis is real time.

[Jesse]

Lol, you really don't get me. I'm sorry it's been years since I was this active on a forum. I was never rooting for the gfs, just kept throwing it out either. I just wanted people to see a negative trend with a little objectivity, which as it turns out is a fools errand here.

 

But to be honest I would absolutely love for it to verify verbatim, but am not convinced it won't continue to trend toward the gfs as it did slightly tonight.

There are a handful of fairly objective folks on here.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF has another 2 or 3 inches for my area in the 8 to 10 day period.

[Deweydog]

Day 10 is insane. January 1969/2011 redux???