December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Holy Mother of Snowizard!!

 

 

[Farmboy]

I think the block is almost like a black hole.  It just sucks everything into it and adds to its size.

Agree. let's hope this block is as stable as it appears on the models.

[Deweydog]

Holy Mother of Snowizard!!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_42.png

Wet and wild!

[snow_wizard]

Possible snowmeggedon scenario later in the run.  Huge potential in the 10 to 15 day period.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowmageddon Cometh!! 

 

 

[Bryant]

Holy Mother of Snowizard!!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_42.png

Holy Mother Of Rain!

[Farmboy]

Oh yeah!!!'''

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_40.png

Looks like 20-30 inches of snow for Aberdeen, WA, if it's cold enough for snow at that time at the coast....WoW...

[Heavy Snow]

Possible snowmeggedon scenario later in the run.  Huge potential in the 10 to 15 day period.

Snowmageddon Cometh!! 

 

gfs_T850_nwus_48.png

 

Yeah, still a long ways out but there's potential. The most important thing is that its widespread.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_49.png

[snow_wizard]

Some hint some PV action could get close to us later on.  Could be wild!

 

Another thing I'm noticing is pressure gradients get really weak after the Arctic air mass moves in.  We are going to achieve full radiational cooling.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

A fantasyland fantasy.... Daplane daplane!!  EDIT: I do not think I have ever seen a model run spilling -20 850mb temps out over the pacific like that so close to us. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Holy Mother Of Rain!

 

It's normal to have a brief warm interlude during these things.  Usually snow on both sides of it.

[Deweydog]

Looks warm over SW Canada.

[snow_wizard]

A fantasyland fantasy.... Daplane daplane!!

 

gfs_T850_nwus_50.png

 

 

That is top tier stuff right there.  It would be up there with anything we've ever recorded.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This looks intense...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

[Kayla]

Canadian is interesting. Warmer but whiter next week.

 

Sure is. Drops 18" of snowfall region wide (including PDX, SEA) by the end of next week.

[Deweydog]

Looks like Andrew is about to switch to sleet at 384 hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This looks intense...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

Hell of a lot of cold air just to the north of that low. That could be blizzard caliber stuff if tracked right .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Andrew is about to switch to sleet at 384 hours.

 

The added weight from 3" of sleet on top of 3' of snow may compromise the structure of my home...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hell of a lot of cold air just to the north of that low. That could be blizzard caliber stuff if tracked right .

 

January 1888 redux?

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  After all of that the block is still there at day 16.  Hard to not be a bit excited.

[Deweydog]

All out war in the long range!

 

Good thing Trump is committed to strengthening the armed forces.

[luvssnow_spokane]

January 1888 redux?

Possibly

[snow_wizard]

Hell of a lot of cold air just to the north of that low. That could be blizzard caliber stuff if tracked right .

 

 

The block is still there to suppress the pattern so it could tack south of us.  This could get insane.  A lot of solutions showing historic potential.

[Heavy Snow]

Canadian is interesting. Warmer but whiter next week.

Sure is. Drops 18" of snowfall region wide (including PDX, SEA) by the end of next week.

 

Yeah, I love how widespread the snow is. Would be near perfect going into a reload.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016122900/240/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The block is still there to suppress the pattern so it could tack south of us.  This could get insane.  A lot of solutions showing historic potential.

Even if it doesn't track south the cold air pours back in behind it I'm sure.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, I love how widespread the snow is. Would be near perfect going into a reload.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016122900/240/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Heavy Snow, yes.

 

Arctic Blast, no.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of the GFS runs have been bombing lows up the coast in the long range, every time cold air pours back in behind it so I wouldn't worry about it from a cold killing perspective...But something to watch for down the road.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Gotta admit I'm getting excited. 

[Heavy Snow]

Heavy Snow, yes.

 

Arctic Blast, no.

 

Heavy snow first, then true Arctic Blast would be my preferred order.

[Deweydog]

Gotta admit I'm getting excited.

[chopper 918]

Give me 28 and snow as opposed to 20 and sun.

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see the WRF.  Weatherbell maps shows 4 inches for this area over the weekend.

[Heavy Snow]

A lot of the GFS runs have been bombing lows up the coast in the long range, every time cold air pours back in behind it so I wouldn't worry about it from a cold killing perspective...But something to watch for down the road.

 

We'll be fine at least in PDX Metro. The low level cold will be fully entrenched. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-late-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=193742

[BLI snowman]

A lot of the GFS runs have been bombing lows up the coast in the long range, every time cold air pours back in behind it so I wouldn't worry about it from a cold killing perspective...But something to watch for down the road.

1950 like.

 

It's going to snow a lot next month.

[Perturbed Member]

Holy Mother of Snowizard!!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_42.png

 

Fantastic rainstorm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Fantastic rainstorm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png

 

You never know... Moisture it there and things twerk and tweak a little and we may not be in the rain. 

[Timmy]

1950 like.

It's going to snow a lot next month.

I'm out of town the 11th-15th. Already making preparations for my wife and newborn for transportation and backup power.

[Deweydog]

I'm out of town the 11th-15th. Already making preparations for my wife and newborn for transportation and backup power.

They should evacuate to Mexico.

 

-Dennis Quaid

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Surface Temp anomaly

Coldest yet!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122900/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_27.png