snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I trust you here. Been on this forum for years your one of the vets here that would know this. Do you think midnight is still accurate when it turns to snow or ealier. I don't think there will be any rain by dark tomorrow evening. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 This looks way colder than mid 30's next week. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I don't think there will be any rain by dark tomorrow evening. I think there will be rain up here even until 7 or 8 p.m. based on the WRF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Environment Canada is also being very conservative up here... Sorry I forgot how to convert it to degrees F... but 1C is about 34F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Environment Canada is also being very conservative up here... ECdec302016.JPG Sorry I forgot how to convert it to degrees F... but 1C is about 34F Totally insane. Shave at least 10F off of that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another thing that gives me hope for tomorrow night is the low will be in an intensifying stage when it comes through. Some kind of convergence is almost certain given the squashed zone of lowest pressure drops right over us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I don't think there will be any rain by dark tomorrow evening.IDK. It almost always takes several hours longer than modeled for the lowest levels to cool to freezing when colder air is moving in from the North like this. I would expect precip to be snow in Bellingham by sunset and around Seattle by 8-10 PM. I doubt SEA freezes till after midnight. 8 PM tomorrow to 6 AM Sunday definitely looks pretty interesting though. I have hope for a relatively widespread 1-2" with isolated areas getting more. Doesn't look good for anywhere SW of Seattle though IMO. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Environment Canada is also being very conservative up here... ECdec302016.JPG Sorry I forgot how to convert it to degrees F... but 1C is about 34F Yikes, that will bust hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I think there will be rain up here even until 7 or 8 p.m. based on the WRF. Possible. I'm less confident about the exact changeover time than I am about the fact most of King County will have some snow. I do know the cold often moves in quicker than expected with events that actually work out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 IDK. It almost always takes several hours longer than modeled for the lowest levels to cool to freezing when colder air is moving in from the North like this. I would expect precip to be snow in Bellingham by sunset and around Seattle by 8-10 PM. I doubt SEA freezes till after midnight. 8 PM tomorrow to 6 AM Sunday definitely looks pretty interesting though. I have hope for a relatively widespread 1-2" with isolated areas getting more. Doesn't look good for anywhere SW of Seattle though IMO. Thanks for verifying my thoughts. I do think the swamp will see some snow amounting to 0"-Trace that will look like a heavy frost. We can then hold onto this snowpack/heavy frost look for a week while we wait for our next opportunity just ten days away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 IDK. It almost always takes several hours longer than modeled for the lowest levels to cool to freezing when colder air is moving in from the North like this. I would expect precip to be snow in Bellingham by sunset and around Seattle by 8-10 PM. I doubt SEA freezes till after midnight. 8 PM tomorrow to 6 AM Sunday definitely looks pretty interesting though. I have hope for a relatively widespread 1-2" with isolated areas getting more. Doesn't look good for anywhere SW of Seattle though IMO. Going to be interesting for sure. A slightly more sluggish invasion of cold air could mean the moisture will hang around longer also. I have seen plenty of these where the cold arrives ahead of schedule though. Also bear in mind the air mass is already pretty cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Possible. I'm less confident about the exact changeover time than I am about the fact most of King County will have some snow. I do know the cold often moves in quicker than expected with events that actually work out.I am pretty sure most areas below 750 feet will have mostly bare ground by Sunday evening after a high in the mid to upper 30s. The only mitigating factor will be drier air moving in on Sunday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I am pretty sure most areas below 750 feet will have mostly bare ground by Sunday evening after a high in the mid to upper 30s. The only mitigating factor will be drier air moving in on Sunday.It's so infuriating knowing how pessimistic you can be yet sickly comforting knowing you are also right most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 IDK. It almost always takes several hours longer than modeled for the lowest levels to cool to freezing when colder air is moving in from the North like this. I would expect precip to be snow in Bellingham by sunset and around Seattle by 8-10 PM. I doubt SEA freezes till after midnight. 8 PM tomorrow to 6 AM Sunday definitely looks pretty interesting though. I have hope for a relatively widespread 1-2" with isolated areas getting more. Doesn't look good for anywhere SW of Seattle though IMO.Regarding SEA... GFS MOS does not show SEA going below freezing until Sunday evening for the first time. ECMWF agrees. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 It's so infuriating knowing how pessimistic you can be yet sickly comforting knowing you are also right most of the time.Blame nature... I hate the time between the moisture moving out and truly cold air arriving. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Regarding SEA... GFS MOS does not show SEA going below freezing until Sunday evening for the first time. ECMWF agrees.It will be close whether they sneak down to freezing Saturday night/Sunday morning. In a moist airmass, they usually cool painfully slowly in these types of setups. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Regarding SEA... GFS MOS does not show SEA going below freezing until Sunday evening for the first time. ECMWF agrees.Seattle proper is way warmer than most other places. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Totally insane. Shave at least 10F off of that.They will lower the temps once the actual airmass makes it into our region/ Just making sure it doesn't hook a left turn accidently.... Next weekend is starting to look phenomonal as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Seattle proper is way warmer than most other places.ECMWF shows widespread 37-39 degree temps on Sunday afternoon from Seattle to Eugene. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just hit freezing! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 ECMWF shows widespread 37-39 degree temps on Sunday afternoon from Seattle to Eugene.I don't normally pay much attention to its DP forecast, but the WRF shows highs around 36 Sunday with DP's around 20. Wouldn't be much melting if that were correct, but I have a feeling the cold, drier air will take a bit longer than that to establish itself. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 So just running the stats. Here are the coldest January lows at PDX since 1980... 13 - 198014 - 198217 - 199618 - 200419 - 2007&1984 Really good chance PDX has their coldest January low since 1982. A low of 12 a Mark Nelsen has forecast would be the coldest January low since 1974. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looks like the last time measurable snow in Seattle on New Years Eve 1968 with 9.3" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 They will lower the temps once the actual airmass makes it into our region/ Just making sure it doesn't hook a left turn accidently.... Next weekend is starting to look phenomonal as well Probably, since there is not much cold air upstream yet. The trough is going to be pretty fast moving, so things will progress quickly (assuming things go as planned). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 ECMWF shows widespread 37-39 degree temps on Sunday afternoon from Seattle to Eugene.It only got up to 39 here today with clear blue skies. Already down to 29. The trajectory of the low will likely leave me mostly dry tomorrow, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I don't normally pay much attention to its DP forecast, but the WRF shows highs around 36 Sunday with DP's around 20. Wouldn't be much melting if that were correct, but I have a feeling the cold, drier air will take a bit longer than that to establish itself. WRF is probably a little too cool as usual... maybe 37 or 38 with a dewpoint falling into the 20s with some sun. Guessing it will be a 'snow in shady places' situation depending on how much actually falls. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Seattle proper is way warmer than most other places. I also think everyone is really underestimating how swiftly the cold air is going to blast in. I expect no melting Sunday at all except maybe in the sun. This is a true Arctic front moving through after all. I have high confidence on this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 WRF is probably a little too cool as usual... maybe 37 or 38 with a dewpoint falling into the 20s with some sun. Guessing it will be a 'snow in shady places' situation depending on how much actually falls. Looking closer, the WRF actually shows DP's in the mid teens Sunday afternoon. That would be impressive and make for very little melting. Anybody who gets more than an inch should still have snow on the ground Monday morning I think. Big question mark if many areas can get more than that though. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Any thoughts on this?Helps w/ blocking in the long run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I also think everyone is really underestimating how swiftly the cold air is going to blast in. I expect no melting Sunday at all except maybe in the sun. This is a true Arctic front moving through after all. I have high confidence on this.Hope so. All of the recent fronts have been pathetic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I just noticed the hi res wrf didn't run for 12z. Is anyone able to see it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Hope so. All of the recent fronts have been pathetic This is way different. The previous ones were all warning shots although it did get down to 18 here one night. It's almost funny to see how everyone is underestimating this. The little cold shot we had in late Nov 2014 was cold enough to keep any snow from melting after it fell in the morning and this thing is much more impressive. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The last round of snow came many hours ahead of schedule and wasn't supposed to amount to anything until that Friday evening....rain turned to snow not long after sunrise and went on throughout much of the day. Many on here were convinced no places below 500ft would see anything...got an inch at sea level and just over 2" at my 350ft elevation. You just never know sometimes. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 This is way different. The previous ones were all warning shots although it did get down to 18 here one night. It's almost funny to see how everyone is underestimating this. The little cold shot we had in late Nov 2014 was cold enough to keep any snow from melting after it fell in the morning and this thing is much more impressive.None of my snow went away for a week after that one! This was taken a few days after the snow. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just got back from the heart of the Canadian Rockies in the heart of winter; more specifically, Field, BC and Lake Louise, AB. I needed to be in a subarctic/Dfc climate and boy did it deliver. It wasn't a blizzard or anything but it was nice to get out of this mucky moss infested and dreary climate. The weather while I was there was 15F-20F and snowing or cloudy. If this upcoming cold wave had come just a little earlier it would've been perfect though. That last pic is me randomly eating a big long thing of snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Latest CFS has a warm February and then a cold March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Helps w/ blocking in the long run.Thanks Phil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm cautiously optimistic right now. I'm hoping for a good set of 00z model runs tonight. I can't think of a better way to end the year than an incredible set of 00z model runs tomorrow night as we watch snow and fireworks light up the sky tomorrow at midnight. Let's ring in the New Year with snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just got back from the heart of the Canadian Rockies in the heart of winter; more specifically, Field, BC and Lake Louise, AB. I needed to be in a subarctic/Dfc climate and boy did it deliver. It wasn't a blizzard or anything but it was nice to get out of this mucky moss infested and dreary climate. The weather while I was there was 15F-20F and snowing or cloudy. If this upcoming cold wave had come just a little earlier it would've been perfect though. That last pic is me randomly eating a big long thing of snow. Amazing pics! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 MM5 NAM shows most of the precip when its still a little too warm for true lowland snow tomorrow evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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