December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

This is very disappointing... unless you live in Bellingham.

 

 

LOL....dude. Models have been all over the place for snowfall with this. Moving the best accumulations up and down the Sound.

 

They simply don't know. Anyone who has watched them in these situations should know this.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still puzzled over the meltdown on here tonight. Things don't look that bad. The GEM is right back on track by day 10 after a brief period of milder weather.

 

As for temps early next week. I still say highs well below freezing. 850s of -14, strong Fraser outflow, very low thicknesses, and weakest sun of the year. If I'm wrong I have no idea how it could be possible.

[FroYoBro]

Let's just hope the northern energy doesn't completely lose ground, which the 00z runs are already flirting with by Wednesday/Thursday. Would be a pretty remarkable collapse if so.

 

Pretty interesting to watch either way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I missed tonight's 00z runs so far, what did I miss???

 

The possible beginnings of 2011 type model collapse.

[Phil]

I'm right here.

 

I put my reputation on the line earlier today. Guaranteed an event topping Jan 2007, money back guaranteed. I knew that if this event was indeed jinxable, that would do the trick. Had to put it to the test.

Haha.

 

Maybe you'll take my place as public enemy #1.

[snow_wizard]

LOL....dude. Models have been all over the place for snowfall with this. Moving the best accumulations up and down the Sound.

 

They simply don't know. Anyone who has watched them in these situations should know this.

And of course he didn't show the WRF. So predictable.

[Timmy]

The 00z GFS, GEM and UKMET have all looked bad tonight but I'm not worried. The reason that we don't get cold is because of that low that's suppose to weaken and head to California, it doesnt. It strengthens and curves north stopping the coldest air from reaching us. It's still 3-4 days out for that system to form and head inland. The 12z EURO should have seen this first if there was any validity to it. In the next model runs, models can weaken it. Onto the 00z EURO.

Wow, last night nearly killed you,

But you are still optimistic tonight? Now I totally get you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty interesting to watch either way. 

 

I am a weirdo and I dream of endless strings of cold clear weather. I was mildly disappointed that Dec 08' didn't reach its cold anomaly potential. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I missed tonight's 00z runs so far, what did I miss???

Warmer. ... wierd, sketchy, discouraging!

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that.

[Front Ranger]

The possible beginnings of 2011 type model collapse.

 

That was from like 4-5+ days out mainly. Which is ALWAYS suspect.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm right here.

 

I put my reputation on the line earlier today. Guaranteed an event topping Jan 2007, money back guaranteed. I knew that if this event was indeed jinxable, that would do the trick. Had to put it to the test.

 

It's possible our January's are becoming like the Cubs...But one year...It'll happen...Maybe this year! If not maybe next year!

[snow_wizard]

Warmer. ... wierd, sketchy, discouraging!

Not really.

 

ECMWF ensemble....

[GHweatherChris]

2008 had the bad stretch of model runs too.

 

Granted they did not occur this close to the event.

[TT-SEA]

And of course he didn't show the WRF. So predictable.

 

 

I did show it.   

 

Look above Jim.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was from like 4-5+ days out mainly. Which is ALWAYS suspect.

 

So would this be worse? 2005 worthy? Remember that 1-2 day FREAKOUT leading up to Dec 08'.

[snow_wizard]

It almost becomes unenjoyable when people get like this. It's going to get cold and it's going to snow. Sheesh.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that.

Day 10?! Wow!! Omg!! That is awesome!!!!!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

It's possible our January's are becoming like the Cubs...But one year...It'll happen...Maybe this year! If not maybe next year!

 

It happened for the Cubs this year...

[TT-SEA]

Definitely.   It has shifted the best zone to the south.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.48.0000.gif

 

 

Look at that from 25 minutes ago... so predictable!   

[snow_wizard]

BTW the GEM is cold at day 10.

[BLI snowman]

The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that.

 

I'd say you're reaching.

 

Pretty bad run, it happens.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10?! Wow!! Omg!! That is awesome!!!!!!!!!

And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the GEM is cold at day 10.

 

KOLD

 

Gonna have to stay up for the EURO tonight. If it stays true I will feel a lot better. 

[snow_wizard]

I'd say you're reaching.

 

Pretty bad run, it happens.

People are WAY over-reacting.

[Phil]

It almost becomes unenjoyable when people get like this. It's going to get cold and it's going to snow. Sheesh.

Somehow, you're going to get completely screwed in the snowfall department again. Just watch.

 

(jk).

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I like you, Phil!

[snow_wizard]

I'm done on here tonight. Have fun whining.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there.

 

I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run. 

[Phil]

I like you, Phil!

I like you too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whoooahhhh -7 at Burns, OR already. 

[BLI snowman]

So would this be worse? 2005 worthy? Remember that 1-2 day FREAKOUT leading up to Dec 08'.

 

It would probably be comparable to 2005 if this somehow trends dramatically worse and we're left with a glancing blow. Possible given tonight's dramatic jump but still pretty unlikely.

[luminen]

Let's let KING EURO handle this. Relax y'all. 

[Phil]

I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run.

If the trend continues on the ECMWF and subsequent modeling over the next 12-24hrs, I'll think more of it.

 

As of now, especially given the incredibly complex nature of the upcoming pattern progression, I'm skeptical this is anything more than a blip. I could be wrong though.

[Timmy]

People are WAY over-reacting.

People are reacting...

Relative what could have been. if euro doesn't hold its ground, no matter how much better than our normal climate weather, this will still be a let down

[BLI snowman]

I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run. 

 

I'd have a tougher time believing there isn't some validity to the solutions. I can't recall too many times when three models jumped on something big within 84 hours and then reversed course again afterwards.

[Guest Sounder]

People are reacting...

Relative what could have been. if euro doesn't hold its ground, no matter how much better than our normal climate weather, this will still be a let down

Welcome back!

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like we'll be surpassing 2005 as the biggest bust in recent memory. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Armature hr on here tonight. Our best and biggest snows have been with a pattern similar to the 00z. Sometimes it works out and other times it dont. Ten years can pass and we may not even have the potential like we do now. Sit back and relax.

[Timmy]

Heavy snow isn't posting the ukmet so it must

Suck too