December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

I hope at least the huskies get their butts whooped today to make up for the downward trend in models.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I might some action in a little bit. Snow filling in on the radar just to the west of me. Very light east wind should help keep it chilly.

[Deweydog]

NAM keeps that pesky surface low even more in play for Monday. Southern areas could do well.

[kokaneekidz]

Take a break from weather and watch the UW Huskies play in the College Football Playoffs.   

 

Hope they can at least keep it close.  

We drew first blood. I love the bama fan mad with his pom pom...

[Bryant]

Just started snowing here in Bellingham!

"Like"

[Front Ranger]

I still think 1992-93 is looking a better analog thus far than 1948-49.

 

December was more like 1948.

 

January has yet to show all its cards!

[Front Ranger]

Just started snowing here in Bellingham!  

 

Hi-res para NAM, the Michael Jordan of snow models, shows most of the NW interior seeing snow later this afternoon/early evening.

 

 

[Jbolin]

Super fine snow just started up again here in W. Sea ( Tim, Luvsnowseattle ) 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Super fine snow just started up again here in W. Sea ( Tim, Luvsnowseattle ) 

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[snow_wizard]

The Euro ensemble is quite decent.  It doesn't take the cutoff low quite as far offshore and kicks it over us sooner.  Temps moderate for a short time and get cold again.  Still time for the 8 to 12 day period to get REALLY nice for us.  A good outcome for week 2 is still very possible.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Temp been climbing like a bat-out-of-a-cave here SSw winds are a drag. Dewpoints low though at 28

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good start for the Huskies. Given how shitty the models have been it would make sense if they won.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like I might some action in a little bit. Snow filling in on the radar just to the west of me. Very light east wind should help keep it chilly.

32 here and real light snow.

[Bryant]

Light snow here at work in Bellingham by the mall

[HighlandExperience]

Hi-res para NAM, the Michael Jordan of snow models, shows most of the NW interior seeing snow later this afternoon/early evening.

 

 

get_orig_img (1).gif

We are getting shadowed.

[Perturbed Member]

3km high res parallel NAM snow totals

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016123118/nam3km_asnow_nwus_40.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

32 here and real light snow.

snow or a flurry? 

[The Swamp]

Snowing in the swamp.

[Jesse]

The Euro ensemble is quite decent. It doesn't take the cutoff low quite as far offshore and kicks it over us sooner. Temps moderate for a short time and get cold again. Still time for the 8 to 12 day period to get REALLY nice for us. A good outcome for week 2 is still very possible.

Ensembles have been trending toward the operational pretty heavily. That will likely continue.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

snow or a flurry?

 

light snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowing in the swamp.

What the ***!?  I hate you!!!

[van city]

Hi-res para NAM, the Michael Jordan of snow models, shows most of the NW interior seeing snow later this afternoon/early evening.

 

 

get_orig_img (1).gif

 

If Michael Jordan is right we might get quite a bit of snow here. Heavy snowfall and accumulating.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ensembles have been trending toward the operational pretty heavily. That will likely continue.

Rose colored glasses are hard for him to see through. Give it time he will realize it

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing in the swamp.

First snow in 200 years

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles have been trending toward the operational pretty heavily. That will likely continue.

It's actually quite good after the brief warmup.

[Deweydog]

NAM is even more bullish with the squeeze play going into Tuesday. Gonna be a complicated pattern to unravel.

[Kayla]

Ensembles have been trending toward the operational pretty heavily. That will likely continue.

 

Ensembles still showing about 10" of snowfall for PDX. Still not really budging on that front.

[luvssnow_spokane]

First snow in 200 years

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[snow_wizard]

Very nice to see the ECMWF has the best mean for week two. People need to chill. This still looks good overall.

 

Remember the ECMWF operational has bad skill for week two since the upgrade they did.

[Front Ranger]

We are getting shadowed.

 

It does show a weak CZ moving through your area later tonight. Although Jim's area actually looks to do better.

[Kayla]

NAM is even more bullish with the squeeze play going into Tuesday. Gonna be a complicated pattern to unravel.

 

Yeah, just insane outflow. Could keep PDX below 25º as early as Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles still showing about 10" of snowfall for PDX. Still not really budging on that front.

But, but, but the sky is falling! Didn't you know that?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very nice to see the ECMWF has the best mean for week two. People need to chill. This still looks good overall.

 

Remember the ECMWF operational has bad skill for week two since the upgrade they did.

And the GFS?

[The Swamp]

Snow has now stopped. Storm has passed.

[Deweydog]

Very nice to see the ECMWF has the best mean for week two. People need to chill. This still looks good overall.

 

Remember the ECMWF operational has bad skill for week two since the upgrade they did.

Maybe chill with the telling people to chill too.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems like the favourable dynamics for southern Vancouver island are fleeting and push south rather quickly this evening. The last few model runs have given me some hope for a burst of flurries south of Nanaimo overnight tonight as the outflow kicks in. Localized trace-2" seems possible. But it also seems just as likely many of us see nothing.

 

We don't typically see snowless transitions when we have a shortwave digging as far west over the region as shown; I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't an unanticipated burst of snow over the east side of the island when the cold air finally does arrive. Less favorable looking dynamics have produced significant low level snows in places like Parksville. The typical rain-to-cold dry pattern we see would be the inside slider with shortwave digging starting at northern coast of Oregon or the more vertical ridge with little-to-no positive tilt.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snow has now stopped. Storm has passed.

Did you get through it okay? Still have power? I can bring over some blankets and canned goods.

[Kayla]

But, but, but the sky is falling! Didn't you know that?

 

Falling white!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Huskies about to find out what big boy football is all about. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Maybe chill with the telling people to chill too.

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