December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Very good chance someone between Seattle and Bellingham sees 4"+ by late tomorrow.

 

Any chance that c-zone makes it to my area tonight???   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Latest obersvations in Port Hardy BC at the north tip of Vancouver Island, an area with heavy marine influence. Currently sitting at 32F with snow showers, at 9am it was 39F with rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say the 18z continues the wetter trend down here tomorrow...

[Kayla]

Hmmm, maybe the NWS was onto something?? Big props to them if this actually ends up verifying. 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Latest obersvations in Port Hardy BC at the north tip of Vancouver Island, an area with heavy marine influence. Currently sitting at 32F with snow showers, at 9am it was 39F with rain.

Sounds about where things should be as forecasted. Nothing exceptional about that but rather right on schedule.

[TT-SEA]

The screw zone has grown to include me on the 18Z GFS!  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z isn't really any warmer through hour 84 at least...Looks like its going to bring that moisture a little further north from the southern stream...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes... the models showed barely any accumulation at his house.     I wonder how many inches he has received so far.    The models were totally wrong!

 

It was a joke. I am always teasing him.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to look like more snow in Oregon than WA with this...A few days ago I was worried if I would get an inch even...Starting to trend toward 3-5", though right now I would err on the low side and predict 2-3".

[Front Ranger]

Pretty much... except for the 4-6 inches so far in Puyallup.  

 

Cliff Mass says it's colder than forecast today, and is concerned more precip later will be snow than was forecast/modeled.

 

I'm just the messenger!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting at hour 90, the low is further south, but the moisture is further north...SCORE?

[HighlandExperience]

Starting to look like more snow in Oregon than WA with this...A few days ago I was worried if I would get an inch even...Starting to trend toward 3-5", though right now I would err on the low side and predict 2-3".

Maybe Oregon at your elevation. Highly doubt Portland sees much

[Perturbed Member]

Hmmm, maybe the NWS was onto something?? Big props to them if this actually ends up verifying. 

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-31 at 1.54.45 PM.png

 

Hmm, that's pretty decent looking. 

[Jesse]

Snowing nicely here. Neat little surprise.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cliff Mass says it's colder than forecast today, and is concerned more precip later will be snow than was forecast/modeled.

 

I'm just the messenger!

Conservative forecasting Cliff back-peddling?  WOW!

[TT-SEA]

Cliff Mass says it's colder than forecast today, and is concerned more precip later will be snow than was forecast/modeled.

 

I'm just the messenger!

 

 

How does that change anything when the SW winds arrive?

[Front Ranger]

How does that change anything when the SW winds arrive?

 

Good lord, man. Read his blog for yourself.

 

The latest sounding above Sea-Tac airport (12:30 PM) shows a freezing level around 950 ft, which means the atmosphere is now close to cold enough for snow to reach sea level.  This morning's model output suggests some warming aloft this afternoon.

However, the time-height cross section above Seattle does not suggest much warming aloft, which gets me worried, as does the fact that temperatures are cooler than forecast.

Thus, I have some concerns that we might see a switch to snow earlier than forecast over Puget Sound (which was around midnight) and during a period when precipitation is heavier (after midnight there are only a few snow showers).

[Deweydog]

How does that change anything when the SW winds arrive?

What's his address???

 

Another road trip!!!

[FroYoBro]

That low is moving pretty far north on the 18z so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That little low needs to come inland...

[HighlandExperience]

That little low needs to come inland...

Just needs to come in over Portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least Monday-Wednesday will be cold...Speaking of cold, still 31 here...

 

At hour 108 the low moves west a little...ZR at EUG, snow approaching Salem...Glad Eugene gets more freezing rain... Dolt should enjoy that. 

[epiceast]

Big play for Alabama... Snow chances decreasing.

[Timmy Supercell]

That little low needs to come inland...

 

#LittleLowsMatter

#DaplaneDaplane

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

More places added to the weather advisory in Washington.

[TT-SEA]

Big play for Alabama... Snow chances decreasing.

 

 

Browning handed them the game on a silver platter before the half.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bizarre progression, that low is trucking back to the west...Wednesday definitely doesn't scour out the cold...

[Deweydog]

System falls apart Wednesday night. It's a trend, though. Wednesday/Thursday has some VERY snowy analogs this winter.

[HighlandExperience]

More places added to the weather advisory in Washington.

Excluding Bonney lake and Puyallup

[luvssnow_spokane]

Who pee'd in your Cheerios this morning?! Cheer up kid!

I pee'd in my cheerios I was playing target practice and trying to sink the little round bastards.... Just share a different view on things. Honestly, most of Western WA and OR will get more snow than here for many factors, which is great for them! For here, I am looking at a wet sloppy inch ... Maybe. Probably a trace in reality.

[luminen]

Still snowing here at 140 feet with a trace accumulation. YVR reporting 34F rain. Not quite Arctic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Excluding Bonney lake and Puyallup

yep

[Front Ranger]

18z low just kinda chills there offshore for awhile, waiting patiently for it to warm up before it heads inland.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sounds about where things should be as forecasted. Nothing exceptional about that but rather right on schedule.

 

It's an impressive daytime cool down for a sea level airport in a very marine exposed region. I wouldn't have expected it based on what the models are showing for later this afternoon.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016123118/nam4km_T2m_nwus_6.png

[Perturbed Member]

I mentioned on the 06z GFS that the Wednesday low could probably trend further north and get more directly involved for us. Seems to be even closer now. 

[Deweydog]

18z low just kinda chills there offshore for awhile, waiting patiently for it to warm up before it heads inland.

Waiting for higher sun angles.

[epiceast]

Browning handed them the game on a silver platter before the half.   

There's only one 1950, and only one Husky championship. I'm really sorry guys.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's an impressive daytime cool down for a sea level airport in a very marine exposed region. I wouldn't have expected it based on what the models are showing for later this afternoon.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016123118/nam4km_T2m_nwus_6.png

Considering models were showing 35 to 37 there ... 33 with heavy precipitation is not a stretch. 

[The Swamp]

How does that change anything when the SW winds arrive?

You have a serious hardon for that SW wind.

[Front Ranger]

System falls apart Wednesday night. It's a trend, though. Wednesday/Thursday has some VERY snowy analogs this winter.

 

Not quite.