Money Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Good trends so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 GGEM, the model everyone trashes unless it shows want you want to see. Gotta love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yeah, its hard to believe this won't be an upward trender towards game-time - it's got a LOT going for it. I could sorta believe those crazy d6+ amts that were shown for SMI if we had an actual Defo 2nd wave on top of the WAA snows, but that map does not reflect a swath where I've outlined in red?? 20161214 GFS 156hr snowfall markup.JPG That is during the impressive WAA snows...so no, this would not be during the actual formation of a "possible" defo band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'll be more enthusiastic if the Euro jumps on board and starts spitting out some higher snowfall totals. Let's see what today's 12z run shows. IF there is any consistency, then I'd imagine more headlines to be issued in the region during today's AFD's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 cant help but be all smiles here. GRR has expanded the WWA to even include mby plus they've taken the dreaded MIX out of the storm for Saturday all within the past hour.. 20161214 KRMY WWA & 5-day.JPGLooking good Jaster. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ggem is as good as us☺.. I mean we all thought the cold air wouldn't let it go far north...then it went north. We said wwa always over performs. No one knows, that's what makes weather fascinating. My best guess is LA Crosse to sheboygan gets smoked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 It's unfortunate that we are relying on the Canadian for any decent chance of snow here in Nebraska! My forecast is now down to 50% chance of snow for Friday and SaturdayI am going to be watching the Euro and see who it sides with. I think I had one forecast down to 30%. Even if we could get 1 inch it might be exciting with some of the winds being forecasted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 GGEM has scored a coupe or 2 in the past. Its not a horrible model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm not liking trends for my area. There's a gradual NW shift to that southern part. Story of my life. There's still time for a few more changes though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z Euro shows a strong 996mb SLP in C IL/ STL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'll be more enthusiastic if the Euro jumps on board and starts spitting out some higher snowfall totals. Let's see what today's 12z run shows. IF there is any consistency, then I'd imagine more headlines to be issued in the region during today's AFD's.It would be a plesant surprise to see the Euro come in with a big run but its been pretty stingy of late and not very cooperative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z Euro shows a strong 996mb SLP in C IL/ STL...Yep much like yesterdays 12z EURO. Wonder if develops any backside precip as it has been anemic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 WPC playing it conservative. This is 4+ map, so far there's no 8+ issued. Surf LP seems to be f-cast pretty robust though: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 The low location on the EURO and GFS at hour 72 is almost identical. EURO just a bit stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 The low location on the EURO and GFS at hour 72 is almost identical. EURO just a bit strongerWe can finally say they are in agreement in placement. Interested to see precip maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z Euro... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_4.pngI am right on the red line. Hopefully it is colder and stays all snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Come on euro throw some precipitation around that thing! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looks like it tracks just south of DTX...I'm just guessing from the placement of the low at HR 72 - 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 My forecast high for Saturday is trending colder...Hmmmm?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looks like it tracks just south of DTX...I'm just guessing from the placement of the low at HR 72 - 96That is good news for the burbs of DTW. Mainly colder air throughout the duration of this snowstorm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 A lot of consistency on the ensembles that the SLP will track near STL... 12z GEPS...looks like a lot of mid 990's http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 A lot of consistency on the ensembles that the SLP will track near STL... 12z GEPS...looks like a lot of mid 990's http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.pngIt has almost no associated precip however. At least on 2 out of the 3 big operational globals.(cmon Canada, lets real this one in) Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z GEPS colder and potentially snowier for IA/IL/IN/MI peeps... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ens_apcpn_us_20.png Freezing line... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121412/gem-ens_T2m_us_14.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 What does the Euro snowfall map show? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yeah the track of the SLP is great and all, but it means very, very little if the precip to go along with it is going to be so D**n weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro snow maps anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro snow maps anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 ecmwf_tsnow_mw_18.pngWow, that Euro snowfall map is horrible for many on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 The EURO is so dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 10:1 ratio map. It's going to be better than that, especially deeper into the colder air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Wow, that Euro snowfall map is horrible for many on here.Don't be surprised and expect nothing more than what is being shown...it's the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro actually wetter in the WAA zone i believe than previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Different planet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro actually wetter in the WAA zone i believe than previous runsIt is wetter. And that map is 10:1 ratios. They will be more like 15:1 or higher. I'll take that anyday. Things are looking good for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Seems like the Euro always has to ruin the fun these days. Ill bank on my NAM/GFS/Ggem combo. Sampling is going to occur with tonights 00z, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 Seems like the Euro always has to ruin the fun these days. Ill bank on my NAM/GFS/Ggem combo. Sampling is going to occur with tonights 00z, correct?European shows almost a foot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 It is wetter. And that map is 10:1 ratios. They will be more like 15:1 or higher. I'll take that anyday. Things are looking good for us.You will do better than 15:1 i think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 T swails siding with euro precip amount. Could be some disappointed folks on here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 that's this mornings blog from swails. not updated yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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