Thunder98 Posted February 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 Here is my rainfall totals for every month starting September. Its amazing that every month has seen above average rainfall except for September. I'm already above my monthly average rainfall by 2 inches!Actual | Avg | % of averageSept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%Feb (So far): 2.92" | 2.75" | 106% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 February may end up w/ higher rainfall than Jan [8.67] NWS_LA"Then a potentially dangerous change occurs. The upper low to the West of Eureka will set up a westerly then southwesterly flow pattern over the state. This flow pattern is forecast to entrain a large very moist plume of moisture. Right now both the EC and GFS forecast an 18 to 24 hour period of heavy rain for the entire area from Friday morning to Saturday morning. The preliminary rainfall forecast (which could easily change between now and Friday) calls for 2 to 6 inches of rain for the coastal slopes and 1 to 3 inches across the coasts and vlys. This If this forecast comes try there will be quite a bit of flooding across the area. Snow levels will start out over 7000 feet but could fall to near 6000 feet by Saturday morning. Again the forecast could change between now and Friday but all Southern Californians need to monitor the weather this week". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 SilverFallsAndrew, on 13 Feb 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:SilverFallsAndrew, on 13 Feb 2017 - 09:47 AM, said: And what kind of ENSO is this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 An what kind of ENSO is this year? Some are saying weak Nina, I think it may have technically reached that criteria, but at this point it is a fairly neutral ENSO state. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 An what kind of ENSO is this year? Cool neutral. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 Who can argue over a wonderful gift after years of drought? The science seems to be that California is in the right place at the right time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted February 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 Very weak La Nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 Cool neutral.Alternative facts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2017 Report Share Posted February 13, 2017 Alternative facts? No description then... just a graph. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 14, 2017 Report Share Posted February 14, 2017 Now we await another series of storms that could produce really heavy rainfall in SoCal especially in the area that needs it the most: Santa Barbara/ Ventura counties. It's great to feel excited by winter weather for a change. Monday: 78/ 58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonk Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Now we await another series of storms that could produce really heavy rainfall in SoCal especially in the area that needs it the most: Santa Barbara/ Ventura counties. It's great to feel excited by winter weather for a change. Happ,I'm in Modjeska Canyon and the person who relays emergency alerts (fire, rain/mudslides, etc) to area residents sent this out this morning: We are expecting an extremely significant storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall totals equal to or greater than the rains we just had January 19th-23rd. They captured the top 50 precipitation locations, and we made the list: #3 - Harding Canyon (in Modjeska Canyon) @11.18” of rain#6 - Silverado Canyon @ 10.08” of rain#22 - Modjeska Canyon @ 5.91” of rain Holy Smokes! Those numbers are double what we received during the 'atmospheric river' event we had the third week in Jan. Does this jibe what you're seeing on the forecasts you follow? Weather Underground is forecasting 3.5" for Modjeska this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Bonk, on 14 Feb 2017 - 5:48 PM, said: Happ,I'm in Modjeska Canyon and the person who relays emergency alerts (fire, rain/mudslides, etc) to area residents sent this out this morning: We are expecting an extremely significant storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall totals equal to or greater than the rains we just had January 19th-23rd. They captured the top 50 precipitation locations, and we made the list: #3 - Harding Canyon (in Modjeska Canyon) @11.18” of rain#6 - Silverado Canyon @ 10.08” of rain#22 - Modjeska Canyon @ 5.91” of rain Holy Smokes! Those numbers are double what we received during the 'atmospheric river' event we had the third week in Jan. Does this jibe what you're seeing on the forecasts you follow? Weather Underground is forecasting 3.5" for Modjeska this weekend. Bonk, those are scary predictions. Are you considering sand bags? I never thought I'd need flood insurance but the road can't handle extremely heavy showers. So far no erosion here but several years ago my neighbors nearly lost their deck. What's your rain total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonk Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Bonk, those are scary predictions. Are you considering sand bags? I never thought I'd need flood insurance but the road can't handle extremely heavy showers. So far no erosion here but several years ago my neighbors nearly lost their deck. We use rice bales here. The County has a barn sized pile at the foot of the canyon for resident's use. Santiago Creek is 75' from my back door. It got pretty high last month when we had 3.5" here and 5 - 7" on Santiago and Modjeska Peak above us. Luckily, we've got a 6' berm on our side of the creek which affords us pretty good protection. There are other areas where the water will crest way before it affects our property. But if we get twice as much rain this weekend than the last large storm, it's going to get interesting. What's your rain total? 18.56" for the last 4 months: October 15 - February 14 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Doesn't Modjeska canyon road get washed out in very heavy showers? Seems like that occurred a few years ago during summer monsoon. I hope the upcoming rainfall is cold enough for lots of snow in San Bernardino mts. 75/ 55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 Flood WatchNational Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA143 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017...Heavy rain expected across much of southwest California Fridaythrough early Saturday....A strong storm system tapping into deep subtropical moisture willgenerate periods of moderate to heavy rain late this week into theweekend. The first wave of rain will begin along the CentralCoast Thursday, then move south into Los Angeles and VenturaCounties Thursday night. The second wave arriving Friday morningwill focus it`s energy on the south facing slopes from southernSanta Barbara County east through Ventura and Los AngelesCounties. Strong southerly winds combined with ample moisture willlead to periods of very heavy rain with rain rates at times around1 inch per hour. Rainfall will begin to taper off Saturday morningwith the flash flood threat ending around noon, though scatteredshowers are possible through the evening.CAZ039>041-044>046-052>054-059-087-088-547>550-161000-/O.NEW.KLOX.FF.A.0007.170217T1500Z-170218T1900Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/Santa Barbara County South Coast-Ventura County Coast-Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Santa Barbara County Mountains-Ventura County Mountains-Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range-Antelope Valley-Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands-Including the cities of Santa Barbara, Montecito, Carpinteria,Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Malibu, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills,Hollywood, Long Beach, Santa Paula, Fillmore, Ojai, Piru,Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Newbury Park,San Marcos Pass, San Rafael Wilderness Area,**** Smith Wilderness Area, Lockwood Valley, Mount Pinos, Acton,Mount Wilson, Sandberg, Lancaster, Palmdale, Avalon,Santa Clarita, Newhall, Valencia, Woodland Hills, Northridge,Burbank, Universal City, Pasadena, San Gabriel, and Pomona143 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a* Flash Flood Watch for Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties* From Friday morning through Saturday morning* Periods of moderate to heavy rain with rainfall rates at times around 1 inch per hour. Overall 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the coast and valleys while 4 to 8 inches are expected in the foothills and mountains. Heaviest along the south facing slopes from the Santa Ynez Range east through the San Gabriels.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Flash flooding and debris flows will be a particular threat inand below the recently burned areas.A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that leadto flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.Southern California residents, in or below the recently burnedareas are urged to take the steps necessary to protect theirproperty. Persons in the watch area should remain alert andfollow directions of emergency preparedness officials. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I don't think I've ever seen this much rain modeled for LA. The 18z GFS output literally gives LAX over 5" of rain between 10 AM to 10 PM Friday. Hard to imagine there not being some pretty major flash flooding with this. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 bainbridgekid, on 15 Feb 2017 - 7:15 PM, said:I don't think I've ever seen this much rain modeled for LA. The 18z GFS output literally gives LAX over 5" of rain between 10 AM to 10 PM Friday. LA rainstorm.png Hard to imagine there not being some pretty major flash flooding with this. Bulls eye is Los Angeles. I did record a few days with 5" totals in 2005. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Alternative facts?NOAA says weak Nina, so I'll go with that. 5 consecutive trimonthlies below -0.5C. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 A flash flood watch extends from the Sierra starting at Yosemite out to Las Vegas and into Baja California. 81/ 53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 Bulls eye is Los Angeles. I did record a few days with 5" totals in 2005.I was in Hermosa Beach for that. I've experienced many thunderstorms in the Midwest, but the rain there on 12/28/04 is still the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life. The rain drops were practically ping pong ball sized and it turned the hill at my sister's house into a raging river. LAX recorded 3.85" that day. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 bainbridgekid, on 15 Feb 2017 - 11:02 PM, said:I was in Hermosa Beach for that. I've experienced many thunderstorms in the Midwest, but the rain there on 12/28/04 is still the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life. The rain drops were practically ping pong ball sized and it turned the hill at my sister's house into a raging river. LAX recorded 3.85" that day. I recorded over 50"; nothing has ever come close since that rainyear [2004/05] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 I believe 2004-05 is downtown Los Angeles' second wettest season on record with around 36" since records began back in 1877. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 My season rainfall total here in Orange so far beginning July 1 is 17.56". Downtown Los Angeles has received 16.25" from July 1 to the present, which is above the seasonal average. I don't use the new October 1 to September 30 water year, but this year L.A. only recorded a trace from July to September, so both figures are the same. Last year, of course, was a different story with all the summer rainfall we had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 The outflow from the Sacramento river can be seen as brown water passing under the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. Oroville dam will be hit by massive rainfall again early next week; hope it holds up ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service San Diego CA903 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017...A WIND STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY....A strong storm will approach the area from the Pacific on Friday,then move across Southern California Friday evening through Saturday.Winds will increase and become unusually strong out ahead of thisstorm. This will bring a period of damaging winds to the area,with the highest impact time being from 2 PM to Midnight on Friday.CAZ043-048-050-057-058-060>062-065-552-554-170600-/O.UPG.KSGX.HW.A.0003.170217T1500Z-170218T1500Z//O.NEW.KSGX.HW.W.0004.170217T1500Z-170218T1000Z/San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-San Diego County Mountains-Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Including the cities of...Vista...Carlsbad...Encinitas...Chula Vista...National City...San Diego...Riverside...San Bernardino...Ontario...Moreno Valley...Fontana...Rancho Cucamonga...Corona...Escondido...El Cajon...San Marcos...La Mesa...Santee...Poway...Julian...Pine Valley...Victorville...Hesperia...Apple Valley...Indio...Palm Springs...Cathedral City...Palm Desert...Palm Desert Country...La Quinta...Coachella...Borrego Springs...Banning...Desert Hot Springs...Huntington Beach...Costa Mesa...Santa Ana...Anaheim...Garden Grove...Irvine...Orange...Fullerton...Mission Viejo903 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PSTSATURDAY...The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a High WindWarning...which is in effect from 7 AM Friday to 2 AM PSTSaturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.* WINDS...Damaging southerly winds are expected Friday through Friday night. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph is expected from the coast to the valleys and across portions of the lower deserts. Wind gusts in the mountains and portions of the high deserts will exceed 70 mph. Even a period of high sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph is expected along the coast Friday afternoon into the evening. This will be a high impact wind event.* TIMING...The strongest winds will occur between 2 PM and midnight on Friday.* Impacts...Winds of this magnitude will produce significant impacts. Numerous trees will fall posing a life and property risk. Downed powerlines, power outages, and some structural damage is also expected. Driving will be hazardous due to debris, including downed trees on roadways. High-profile vehicles, such as semi trucks, will be prone to blow over due to strong cross-winds, especially on east-west oriented freeways.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expectedor occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gustsof 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.&&$$GREGORIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 16, 2017 Report Share Posted February 16, 2017 The outflow from the Sacramento river can be seen as brown water passing under the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. Oroville dam will be hit by massive rainfall again early next week; hope it holds up ok. 12z GFS has 7" of rain over Oroville the next week. Could get ugly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Looks like an interesting storm coming up. Hopefully the atmospheric river will not miss San Diego again. Also, very high winds could actually reduce rainfall totals, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 There is model variability but even if rainfall amounts are not as high as originally predicted it is great, once again, to get winter storms one after another. The pattern looks to remain well into next week and perhaps beyond February. 72/ 55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 BIG BEAR AIRP LGT SNOW 34 30 86 SW6G28 29.79F WCI 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Flood AdvisoryNational Weather Service OXNARD CA747 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2017CAC079-171845-/O.NEW.KLOX.FA.Y.0054.170217T1547Z-170217T1845Z//00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/San Luis Obispo CA-747 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2017The National Weather Service in OXNARD has issued a* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... San Luis Obispo County in southwestern California...* Until 1045 AM PST* At 740 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to locally heavy rain developing across much of San Luis Obispo county. Hourly rainfall rates were around one quarter inch. The rainfall is expected to intensify this morning with hourly rainfall rates possibly exceeding one half inch. Rainfall rates this high will cause urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. Rivers and streams are expected to rise quickly this morning. Stay away from washes, streams, culverts and rivers. Avoid driving through canyons as rocks and debris flows are a good possibility. Minor mud and debris flows are possible in and around the Chimney burn area.* Some locations that will experience flooding include... San Luis Obispo...Paso Robles...Morro Bay...Pismo Beach... Atascadero...Arroyo Grande...Nipomo...Cambria...Cuyama... Grover Beach...Guadalupe...Santa Margarita...Shandon... Diablo Canyon...Cayucos...Baywood-Los Osos...San Miguel... Hearst Castle...and Templeton.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flooddeaths occur in vehicles.A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, orponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.&& Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 A wind gust of 71 MPH was observed at the Salinas Airport earlier this morning, with numerous gusts in the 45-55 mph range at other observing sites. Numerous reports of downed trees and power poles across areas in Monterey and San Benito counties, with many people experiencing power outages in Monterey County.http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&afos=AFDMTR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 17, 2017 Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 Storm has been greatly underperforming so far, but still hoping the best is yet to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted February 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2017 2.11" since 8pm last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 It's been raining heavily for a few hours now, but I have seen much stronger winds than this before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted February 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 I had wind gust up to 56 MPH earlier today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted February 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Here is my rainfall totals for every month starting September. Its amazing that every month has seen above average rainfall except for September. I'm already above my monthly average rainfall by 2 inches!Actual | Avg | % of averageSept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%Feb (So far): 2.92" | 2.75" | 106% Update: Actual | Avg | % of averageSept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%Feb (So far): 5.61" | 2.75" | 204%Season to date: 18.24" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 5+ inches and still raining. I had to empty the rain gauge mid day so that it would not fill up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Very windy this afternoon [local gusts: 48mph] and rain, heavy at times and still raining. 59/ 53Rain: 2.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 So far, the January 22 storm had much higher rainfall totals for Orange County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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