January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

36 here and there IS a slight breeze.

 

Hmmmm...

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS depicts all snow in PDX metro starting around 3-4 PM with .5 to 1 inch. However take note that the last 12z was too bullish on precip and snow here for today.

[FroYoBro]

The graupel shower of a century has started here. Warning the neighbors. 

[Deweydog]

At the very least the radar is interesting to watch.  The low seems to be heading up the Lewis River.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In Tigard grapuel falling

[FroYoBro]

In Tigard grapuel falling

Pretty cool. Everything but the road is getting covered right now. 

[Deweydog]

Pretty cool. Everything but the road is getting covered right now. 

 

You got to love graupel.  If it comes down hard, it accumulates REALLY fast.  

 

4-19-08!

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

 

12z GFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

 

 

That's progress.

[FroYoBro]

You got to love graupel.  If it comes down hard, it accumulates REALLY fast.  

 

4-19-08!

 

Coming down HARD. Looks like we got a little bit of snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking at the sat loop and the low placement hard to imagine not having some snow along with the Arctic boundry in puget sound.

[Deweydog]

Tuesday is a smidge colder for Tuesday on the 18z!

[BLI snowman]

18z looks like the Canadian.

[Deweydog]

Much better by Wednesday AM.  

[whitechristmas]

18z GFS depicts all snow in PDX metro starting around 3-4 PM with .5 to 1 inch. However take note that the last 12z was too bullish on precip and snow here for today.

It's too warm. It's over 40 degrees in Washougal with sunshine! Really gross. Unless some magical cold air appears there's not going to be any snow. And speaking of cold air...where is it??

[Perturbed Member]

Towards a warmer pattern, yes.

 

How? The 18z is clearly cooler on that frame with the low further south and east...

[FroYoBro]

It's too warm. It's over 40 degrees in Washougal with sunshine! Really gross. Unless some magical cold air appears there's not going to be any snow. And speaking of cold air...where is it??

 

The cold is here, just up above. 

[Jesse]

How? The 18z is clearly cooler on that frame with the low further south and east...

Deleted my post. I thought they were reversed.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the GFS trending toward the colder GEM and Euro.

 

What an emotional saga the last few days have been.

[Perturbed Member]

It's too warm. It's over 40 degrees in Washougal with sunshine! Really gross. Unless some magical cold air appears there's not going to be any snow. And speaking of cold air...where is it??

 

Offshore flow, -7c 850mb temp and -3c 925mb temp and dropping. Also it is early January. 

 

With even half decent precip, that should be snow to the valley floor. 

[Deweydog]

It's too warm. It's over 40 degrees in Washougal with sunshine! Really gross. Unless some magical cold air appears there's not going to be any snow. And speaking of cold air...where is it??

 

This is cold air advection, or cold air working in from above.  The surface is the last guy to get the memo.  

[Perturbed Member]

Deleted my post. I thought they were reversed.

 

I guess it was the weird order in which I posted those frames. 

[FroYoBro]

I was in the perfect spot for that little shower. Was 42, now down to 35. Lots of white balls all over the deck, grass, and roofs. 

[Deweydog]

I was in the perfect spot for that little shower. Was 42, now down to 35. Lots of white balls all over the deck, grass, and roofs. 

 

Could be little bits of froyo, bro.  

[Deweydog]

Heights are 12dm lower at 4pm Thursday compared to the 12z.  

[Perturbed Member]

Look at how much cooler the 18z is compared to the 12z. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_18.png

 

The Wednesday low still ends up spreading precip over us for some brief snow and then pretty much falls apart. Airmass remains cool. 

[MossMan]

Ahhhh my snow is melting quickly....going to be another bare ground cold snap...when it gets here!

[Kayla]

Heights are 12dm lower at 4pm Thursday compared to the 12z.  

 

Ha, thanks a lot GFS for causing a weenie forum meltdown!

[Perturbed Member]

Ha, thanks a lot GFS for causing a weenie forum meltdown!

 

This happened for the December 14th event as well when the GFS randomly spit out a run or two where the low just tracked straight up the WA coast. Caused mass panic. 

[Deweydog]

35 in Bellingham with strong NE winds.  

 

Not exactly 12-18-90.  

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is way colder by Friday compared to the 12Z run.  

[westcoastexpat]

Anyone else worried about Jim?

[MossMan]

35 in Bellingham with strong NE winds.

 

Not exactly 12-18-90.

Thinking about washing my truck...since the game is so painful.

[Perturbed Member]

That low that was going to bomb out and massacre all the cold air on the 12z is staying well to the south so far on the 18z. Phew. 

[MossMan]

Anyone else worried about Jim?

He will be back later in the week if things are looking good for more snow!

[Deweydog]

If that block could just fly about 700 miles east.  

 

Anyone have any Alaska Airline miles they want to cash in?  

[TT-SEA]

Anyone else worried about Jim?

 

Its the game he plays... super high and then super low.        Its been happening for 12 years and he also happens to live in a terrible spot for snow overall making the situation even worse for him.

[Jesse]

35 in Bellingham with strong NE winds.

 

Not exactly 12-18-90.

Still waiting for the big one. Warning shots!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ahhhh my snow is melting quickly....going to be another bare ground cold snap...when it gets here!

Should of listened to Tim

[whitechristmas]

This is cold air advection, or cold air working in from above.  The surface is the last guy to get the memo.  

Thanks for the explanations. Appreciate everyone's expertise! So the arctic air is stalled? What's the prognosis?

[Kayla]

That low that was going to bomb out and massacre all the cold air on the 12z is staying well to the south so far on the 18z. Phew. 

 

I ran out of likes at 2am today otherwise I would "like" this.