January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[yugo]

Freezing rain here in sw Gresham @~300ft. Breezy east wind. 28 degrees.

[Dave]

Lower level cold air loves to get stuck in Eugene. How much ice do you have?

It's hard to say because there are two layers of it with snow sandwiched in between, but I'd estimate at least a third of an inch on top.  

[TT-SEA]

35 here with a dewpoint of 25 and windy. Should be able to avoid FR here but still not sure.

[BLI snowman]

It seems like that temporary though, temps around the normal wind areas popped just briefly but all seem to be going down again with e. Cooling going on.

 

PDX is still at 33, VUO at 34.

 

Temp up just below 32 here, ice not really accumulating on a number of surfaces.

 

Seems like the Portland area mostly dodged a major ice bullet, further east of I-205 notwithstanding. 

[Deweydog]

34 here with a little wind. Definitely reminds me of the dynamic that occurred late on 12-18-05, early 12-19-05.

[Deweydog]

2008 but snowier.

Nine days ago the Euro said it would be.

[Timmy]

Is this a downsloping issue? Precip intensity? Why the ice storm bust? (I know it's still pretty messy in spots, but it's not what it could have been)

[ShawniganLake]

1/4" of snow here last night.

[luvssnow_spokane]

close to 40 here... Still really dry, not a drop of precipitation. 

[Deweydog]

Is this a downsloping issue? Precip intensity? Why the ice storm bust? (I know it's still pretty messy in spots, but it's not what it could have been)

Deeper than normal offshore flow. Wind is blowing here which is extremely indicative of the fact this is beyond just a gap wind. The deeper offshore flow can create some compressional warming as well as simply grab some of the mid level warmth.

[BLI snowman]

Is this a downsloping issue? Precip intensity? Why the ice storm bust? (I know it's still pretty messy in spots, but it's not what it could have been)

 

More continuous precip would have helped, I think. The long break last night led to temps being able to inch up a little faster, while our low level source has been gradually eroding. 

[HighlandExperience]

close to 40 here... Still really dry, not a drop of precipitation. 

 

Dew Points still in the teens. dry!

[luterra]

Is this a downsloping issue? Precip intensity? Why the ice storm bust? (I know it's still pretty messy in spots, but it's not what it could have been)

 

I suspect it has to do with the very warm 850 mb temps coupled with easterly 850 mb flow which is downsloping and merging/mixing with cold easterly gorge outflow.  The GFS seems to have a pretty good handle on this.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdx

 

Question will be what happens when upper flow turns southwesterly with gorge winds continuing, though steady at 33 might be more likely than a return to ZR.

[Timmy]

Pouring rain and 28f here

[Deweydog]

Pouring rain and 28f here

I thought you were supposed to get a foot of snow? Did it trend east?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dew Points still in the teens. dry!

Dew point it 29 here... mixing out good

[Kayla]

PDX is still at 33, VUO at 34.

 

Temp up just below 32 here, ice not really accumulating on a number of surfaces.

 

Seems like the Portland area mostly dodged a major ice bullet, further east of I-205 notwithstanding. 

 

I am seeing the temps in the area creep ever so slightly down though. Even HIO as dropped down to 33º. Either way, it's going to be a big mess out there with ice accumilations on trees/powerlines even up to 33-34º and dp below freezing.

 

Up to a toasty 27º here with the eerie cracking of trees all around.

[Bryant]

LR ensembles continue to show the reset button in the future. Can't get here any sooner

[Timmy]

I thought you were supposed to get a foot of snow? Did it trend east?

Nah, that's just what the NAM was saying, didn't believe it. Euro was spot on with a little over an inch. The gfs does give me over a foot Monday-Friday though.

[Deweydog]

LR ensembles continue to show the reset button in the future. Can't get here any sooner

A bird in the hand...

[Timmy]

LR ensembles continue to show the reset button in the future. Can't get here any sooner

Umadbro? Do you wish you had a gorge nearby?

[BLI snowman]

I am seeing the temps in the area creep ever so slightly down though. Even HIO as dropped down to 33º. Either way, it's going to be a big mess out there with ice accumilations on trees/powerlines even up to 33-34º and dp below freezing.

 

Up to a toasty 27º here with the eerie cracking of trees all around.

 

33-34 isn't going to do it for major ice accumulation on the roads. I'm at 32 now and things seem to be getting rather liquidy. For many in the area this one will fall well short of expectations.

 

Portland/Gresham/Troutdale are in a different ballpark, 28-30 looks common once you get south of PDX which means the ice will be fairly ubiquitous.

[The Swamp]

steady rain now

 

i'd rather have 52 and rain than this three week tease bullshit

[Kayla]

33-34 isn't going to do it for major ice accumulation on the roads. I'm at 32 now and things seem to be getting rather liquidy. For many in the area this one will fall well short of expectations.

 

Portland/Gresham/Troutdale are in a different ballpark, 28-30 looks common once you get south of PDX which means the ice will be fairly ubiquitous.

 

Yeah of course. I was just noting that we are far from out of the woods. Especially for downtown and points east and of course the west hills. 

 

What are your thoughts on tomorrow morning? Models are still insisting on some accumulating snow...

[Timmy Supercell]

Raining a decent amount this morning. Over a quarter inch so far. If the pack were an inch or so, it would be washing away, but not 21". lol it'll take forever.

[luvssnow_spokane]

steady rain now

 

i'd rather have 52 and rain than this three week tease bullshit

Yah it is a bummer but at least we have a 10% chance to see something. It has been a nice effort and fun to track. Next time.

[Bryant]

Umadbro? Do you wish you had a gorge nearby?

Nothing to be mad about. I've had 2-3" of snow cover for over a week. It's been great! Enjoy the pouring rain you're currently getting though!

[BLI snowman]

Yeah of course. I was just noting that we are far from out of the woods. Especially for downtown and points east and of course the west hills. 

 

What are your thoughts on tomorrow morning? Models are still insisting on some accumulating snow...

 

Looks like a bit of a mess, to me. I suspect for lower elevations precip type will fluctuate a lot with precip intensity after 1am or so. Probably just a lot of 33-34 degree stuff. Could be something a little heavier towards morning. 

[DareDuck]

It just keeps coming. Snowing heavily in Bend, only 10 degrees but you can tell there's warming aloft as the flakes are bigger than they've been all week. About 6" yesterday and about 1" this morning. Supposed to be warm to 33 or so today so it could get messy later.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's raining now.. honestly it is a nice change enjoying it!!

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow morning looks like a precip intensity/dead gradient-dependent kind of shtick.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strong south wind now, up to 41. 

[Kayla]

12z GEM continues to look good for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Salem looks to be the big winners once again on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The warmest layer right now is along the W. Slopes of the Cascades from about 1000'-2500'. I notice the higher sites like Horse Creek and Yellowstone Mtn have switched back to offshore flow and are slowly dropping. 

[Kayla]

12z Euro sticking to it's guns for tomorrow morning accumulating snowfall between 4am-10am. More widespread snowfall being shown here than what the euro was forecasting for yesterdays storm yet still no mention of it...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GEM continues to look good for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Salem looks to be the big winners once again on this run.

 

Good track and the low is a little stronger at landfall...

[Kayla]

PDX back down to 32...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amazing how perfect everything worked out to have zero snow in the lowlands of puget sound.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1/4" of snow here last night.

 

Nice! Sounds like the precip was able to overcome the dry air up there. Nothing in Vic, we're still under outflow winds but it's done nothing to cool it down. Snow prospects look pretty dismal this afternoon, but better up that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro sticking to it's guns for tomorrow morning accumulating snowfall between 4am-10am. More widespread snowfall being shown here than what the euro was forecasting for yesterdays storm yet still no mention of it...

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-08 at 9.59.09 AM.png

 

This is interesting...Basically what I am seeing here is an airmass generally supportive of 1000-1500' snow levels, but the EURO is saying there will still be low level cold trapped at the surface? Just my take on it.