January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Most of King County and Pierce has not done very great along the i-5 corridor. In issaquah (east of Seattle) we picked up maybe an inch or two this entire winter.

 

Places farther east along the foothills have done pretty good. SeaTac obviously had a good localized dump. And there have been periods of brief snow, but nothing special considering how long we have been in this pattern.

 

We've had multiple good snowfalls advertised in the models at various times, but nothing has panned out. Of course much better than the past several years!

 

I could say almost literally the exact same things about my location (not the one near Silver Falls).

 

My seasonal total is probably a little over 3" now and that is made up of a bunch of little snowfalls.

[HighlandExperience]

I could say almost literally the exact same things about my location (not the one near Silver Falls).

Yea I'm sure your area has had a few dissspointments as well. I suppose my expectations for the past few weeks have been to high. Just seems like a lot of wasted potential. More cold rain than anything.

 

If it wasn't for global warming the past month would have been something special.

[Deweydog]

There's a good chance most places on the I-5 corridor will come out of this impressive six week stretch with below average snowfall.

 

happens. It's the dangerous side of believing the atmosphere has justice in mind.

 

Next winter will probably warm overall with a brutally cold/snowy week that plasters everyone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ultra high res wrf shows a good snow for many.

[BLI snowman]

There's a good chance most places on the I-5 corridor will come out of this impressive six week stretch with below average snowfall.

 

s**t happens. It's the dangerous side of believing the atmosphere has justice in mind.

 

Next winter will probably warm overall with a brutally cold/snowy week that plasters everyone.

 

Not really the case south of Olympia. For Tacoma up to Bellingham that would appear to be the case.

[Deweydog]

Not really the case south of Olympia. For Tacoma up to Bellingham that would appear to be the case.

I thought our average winter was like a foot and a half?

[Goducks09]

A few flakes mixing in...you have to squint to see them.

[MossMan]

I thought our average winter was like a foot and a half?

It used to be in my area. The post 2012 era snow drought continues up here. Even crappy warm winters I used to still score a foot or so from a single event...Now it takes a month to get a grand total of 4"...1 painful inch at a time... 

[BLI snowman]

I thought our average winter was like a foot and a half?

 

Cold phase.

 

Our 30 year average is obviously closer to 7-8". There's a chance we surpass that number this week here (I've had a hair over 5").

 

PDX is already up to its 30 year average (3-4") and should in all likelihood surpass its long term average (5-6") on Tuesday night.

 

Many places in western OR have already surpassed their averages.

[HighlandExperience]

It used to be in my area. The post 2012 era snow drought continues up here. Even crappy warm winters I used to still score a foot or so from a single event...Now it takes a month to get a grand total of 4"...1 painful inch at a time...

If mossman location does bad, you know we are screwed. Blame China and India.

[Jesse]

It used to be in my area. The post 2012 era snow drought continues up here. Even crappy warm winters I used to still score a foot or so from a single event...Now it takes a month to get a grand total of 4"...1 painful inch at a time... 

 

We haven't had a suppressed jet style winter like this for a long time. There can be long periods of cold, but also of northern places being pretty moisture starved. I'm sure you will get your big storm eventually. You are still ahead of me!!

[Perturbed Member]

Mark is onboard for Tuesday - Wednesday

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[Jesse]

Mark is onboard for Tuesday - Wednesday

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

Those mid-late week numbers look ridiculously cold.

[Perturbed Member]

Those mid-late week numbers look ridiculously cold.

GFS text output shows 8F-9F as a low temp at PDX Thursday and Friday morning, probably overdone but -9c 850mb temps, weak offshore to calm gradient and clear skies along with a few inches of snow on the ground should be able to get something.

[Jesse]

GFS text output shows 8F-9F as a low temp at PDX Thursday and Friday morning, probably overdone but -9c 850mb temps, weak offshore to calm gradient and clear skies along with a few inches of snow on the ground should be able to get something.

Perhaps. Let's actually get the snow on the ground first. The highs in the 20s are the thing I'm having the toughest time wrapping my head around, but I'd love to be wrong!

[Deweydog]

Contest time!!!

[Jesse]

Contest time!!!

Highs around 35 at the coldest!!

[Perturbed Member]

Perhaps. Let's actually get the snow on the ground first. The highs in the 20s are the thing I'm having the toughest time wrapping my head around, but I'd love to be wrong!

 

 

Yeah, I don't feel too great about highs in the 20s either but maybe some actual snow cover could make the difference. 

[Kayla]

Just absolutely dumping huge wet snow flakes here. Heaviest snowfall that I've seen in quite some time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to flurry. 31 degrees.

 

And looks like our garbage is being taken out now finally. We were backed up for a week.

 

I can't imagine driving a garbage truck or anything up or down that hill in the ice and snow. 

[jcmcgaffey]

^{Here is an excerpt from Scott Sistek at Komo:}

 

 

^{"It has been quite remarkable for the Seattle area to have had so many days primed for snow -- usually we can get snow with the pattern shift to the cold, if a storm comes in the right spot when we're cold, and when the warm storm comes to wash out the cold -- and end up with so little as a whole. Sure, there have been pockets of snow in each one, but Seattle's weather history is littered with moderate to heavy widespread snows in these types of patterns and aside from the little bit on Dec. 8 that would weakly qualify as a widespread snow, it's been more hit-and-miss, with some areas seemingly always in the "miss"."}

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just absolutely dumping huge wet snow flakes here. Heaviest snowfall that I've seen in quite some time.

 

Looking at the Silver Falls cam it looks like a couple additional inches of snow may have fallen. My fiancee worked a graveyard last night, she told me she doesn't feel like going out and measuring right now...

 

[Heavy Snow]

Mark is onboard for Tuesday - Wednesday

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Everything is finally coming together now.

[MossMan]

Contest time!!!

Easy peasy!

 

PDX...

20/10

15/5

19/12

22/15

25/17

Ten Feet of SNOW

 

Seattle...

45/35

42/33

43/34

55/40

72/50

Ten Feet of MUD! 

[jsf343]

Started snowing around 9-10 and has been absolutely dumping the last 1/2 hour. Medium to large flakes helping with quick accumulation.

[Deweydog]

Easy peasy!

 

PDX...

20/10

15/5

19/12

22/15

25/17

Ten Feet of SNOW

 

Seattle...

45/35

42/33

43/34

55/40

72/50

Ten Feet of MUD! 

 

Hard to imagine with those lows at SeaTac that at least some of the outlying areas won't see some grassy accumulations.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I got an update.... 2.5" today. 

[BLI snowman]

GFS text output shows 8F-9F as a low temp at PDX Thursday and Friday morning, probably overdone but -9c 850mb temps, weak offshore to calm gradient and clear skies along with a few inches of snow on the ground should be able to get something.

 

Mark's numbers are about the best case scenario.

 

I do think we'll see better numbers than the similar mid December airmass, owing to the enhanced regional snowcover.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark's numbers are about the best case scenario.

 

I do think we'll see better numbers than the similar mid December airmass, owing to the enhanced regional snowcover.

Wasn't there a lot of low cloud cover around after that event? Could be wrong I was out in Oklahoma.

[Perturbed Member]

Everything is finally coming together now.

 

Pretty much, but the NAM still isn't on board FWIW. 

 

We can never really be too certain about anything here either. Everything could suddenly trend 50 miles south for tonight's runs and leave us dry. My gut feeling is we should actually get something this time.

 

EDIT: Does look like the 18z NAM trender a bit further north. 

[Prairiedog]

Looking at the Silver Falls cam it looks like a couple additional inches of snow may have fallen. My fiancee worked a graveyard last night, she told me she doesn't feel like going out and measuring right now...

 

:(What kind of woman would do that to her man in such time of need?

[BLI snowman]

Wasn't there a lot of low cloud cover around after that event? Could be wrong I was out in Oklahoma.

 

There was on the first day (12/15), then it cleared out a bit.

 

The models have been pretty insistent in showing a clear, calm night on Wednesday night which should allow for full decoupling and maybe some foggy business early on Thursday. 

[Jesse]

Wasn't there a lot of low cloud cover around after that event? Could be wrong I was out in Oklahoma.

Yeah, there was a ton of mid level cloudiness over the Portland area in the wake of that. The atmosphere got pretty juiced up where the deformation band tried to form.

 

Hence the low of 25 for PDX during that event, while areas to the north and south saw teens.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm not on the I-5 corridor, nor am I Hood Canal--between the two.  I've managed about an inch of snow in one event this year.  The remaining opportunities have been shadowed, wind-blown, or northing more than virga.

 

Annoyed at mother nature right now (and no, not the models).  One thing for sure, no matter what the models say or what man thinks it's going to do, I will be unscrewed only when the screwing is over.

[Timmy Supercell]

I can't imagine driving a garbage truck or anything up or down that hill in the ice and snow. 

 

The roads actually are either just wet or slushy. You underestimated yesterday's rain. Even I did to an extent. lol

 

It's sidewalks and parking lots that have suffered a little. 

[Kayla]

Pretty much, but the NAM still isn't on board FWIW. 

 

We can never really be too certain about anything here either. Everything could suddenly trend 50 miles south for tonight's runs and leave us dry. My gut feeling is we should actually get something this time.

 

EDIT: Does look like the 18z NAM trender a bit further north. 

 

3km NAM is not horrible either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[BLI snowman]

Pretty much, but the NAM still isn't on board FWIW. 

 

We can never really be too certain about anything here either. Everything could suddenly trend 50 miles south for tonight's runs and leave us dry. My gut feeling is we should actually get something this time.

 

EDIT: Does look like the 18z NAM trender a bit further north. 

 

NAM continues to figure itself out. Its trended way north today already, and the Hi-Res NAM continues to echo the other major models. 

[Blizzard777]

Impressive that it made it all the way from Antarctica and across the equator.

 

If it could only make it to Seattle!

[Deweydog]

The NAM is warmer, but still not seeing the light when it comes to an actual snowstorm.