January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Interesting to note that the upcoming +EAMT/NPAC jet extension will blow away anything observed during last winter's super niño event. Like, it's not even close. SoCal/SW US will be cashing in big time over the next 10-15 days.

 

Huge changes upcoming during late January, though, partially as a result of this regime. We'll have the EAMT/tropical convection reversing phase, partially in response to this NPAC cyclonic regime perturbing the global stratosphere and reducing the tropical static stability, on aggregate, via a cooling of the equatorial tropopause. The NPAC jet will pull back with the cyclonic train shifting into NE Russia and the NW Pacific, placing ideal surf zone across NPAC, which will lead to another round of EPO and/or NAM/polar based blocking.

 

In some respects, this may be similar to the systematic transition from November into December, however, due to differences in the seasonal relationships and alterations to the background state in general, the result will be somewhat different. Will likely be a significant EPO drop, but otherwise, differences likely in WPO domain, possibly NAM/AO as well. Could be less WPO, more EPO/NAM.

 

Will be a fun ride. Eventually models will catch on, assuming I'm correct which is never a given, especially in winters like this.

Sooo....mega blast incoming for us?

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks nice, maybe a bit better than 00z for the Portland area.

[Heavy Snow]

And just for fun...RGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017011012/rgem_asnow_nwus_12.png

RGEM for the win!

[Front Ranger]

The difficulty in getting the cold air to combine with precip for sticking snow in the Puget Sound region has been brutal this winter.

 

Again, DJF 1978-79 is probably the last time there's been such persistent cold with so little widespread accumulation.

[Phil]

So the Puget Sound area might actually get snow in a few weeks?

Yes. When blocking returns in late January and beyond, once again potential for cold/snow increases in the PNW, and for the country as a whole.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro looks nice, maybe a bit better than 00z for the Portland area.

It is...I'll take it. Right now I am thinking 2-3" for most of the metro, 1-2" for the Salem area, and T-1" Albany/Corvallis. 

[Prairiedog]

Last nights blog from Mark was pretty interesting.  I don't think the NWS even really touched on where Mark went with his analysis re: the ULL.  I'd be curious on any of our thoughts on this.  If this plays out the way he thinks it might then my respect for him goes to yet another level.  Its the whole delivery system of the moisture that I find fascinating compared to what the NWS is suggesting, unless I'm missing their thinking.  He said he would blog sometime this am. Wondering if his same thinking from last night is still in play. 

[Phil]

Sooo....mega blast incoming for us?

Lol. You never know.

 

It's always a possibility in progressions like this, but as I'm sure you know, the exact nature of the blocking pattern(s) and PV will be the ultimate determining factors.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes. When blocking returns in late January and beyond, once again potential for cold/snow increases in the PNW, and for the country as a whole.

 

Can't wait...

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the gradient through the Gorge is already starting up slowly. Now we just need some colder temperatures in that area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z EURO is a lot better for the metro AND my backyard. SCORE!

[TT-SEA]

Sun!

[Heavy Snow]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Been raining here for hours. Just imagining if it was cold enough to snow I would easily had 2 to 4 inches... Bummer my elevation hardly ever helps me here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

...and we are back!

 

Yay!

[Jesse]

Looks like the gradient through the Gorge is already starting up slowly. Now we just need some colder temperatures in that area.

PDX is already 36. Just four degrees to go.

 

I can remember many times going into setups like this with metro temps in the low 40s and mid to upper 30s deep into the Gorge. This is already much better.

[MossMan]

Been raining here for hours. Just imagining if it was cold enough to snow I would easily had 2 to 4 inches... Bummer my elevation hardly ever helps me here. 

Yeah I would have had around 2" early this morning when we had moderate rain and 33 degrees. 

[Perturbed Member]

Last nights blog from Mark was pretty interesting.  I don't think the NWS even really touched on where Mark went with his analysis re: the ULL.  I'd be curious on any of our thoughts on this.  If this plays out the way he thinks it might then my respect for him goes to yet another level.  Its the whole delivery system of the moisture that I find fascinating compared to what the NWS is suggesting, unless I'm missing their thinking.  He said he would blog sometime this am. Wondering if his same thinking from last night is still in play. 

 

Yeah the NWS analysis on this has been quite subpar. They were more focused on last nights non event than this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the NWS analysis on this has been quite subpar. They were more focused on last nights non event than this. 

 

Their new AFD is a lot better. 

[Deweydog]

PDX is already 36. Just four degrees to go.

 

I can remember many times going into setups like this with metro temps in the low 40s and mid to upper 30s deep into the Gorge. This is already much better.

When were those?

 

Closest I remember was 1-26?-96. That one was more about seepage and precip rates, though. Huge deformation setup. Took several hours to fully change over in that case. Started in the upper 30's.

[Kayla]

Their new AFD is a lot better. 

 

About time...

[Perturbed Member]

Their new AFD is a lot better. 

 

I hadn't noticed the new AFD, it is indeed much better. Thanks.

[MossMan]

When were those?

 

Closest I remember was 1-26?-96. That one was more about seepage and precip rates, though. Huge deformation setup. Took several hours to fully change over in that case. Started in the upper 30's.

I remember late Jan 1996 quite fondly...nearly a foot of snow...north wind howling...ohhhhhh the good old days. 

[FroYoBro]

Definitely a quality discussion from Portland NWS. Calling for 1 to 4 inches. Might be more or less depending on the exact low position. 

[TT-SEA]

Well that was fun while it lasted...

 

[Kayla]

PDX-DLS gradient is up to -4.6mb now. Enough to actually get a little outflow going through the gorge now.

 

Basin is building it's cold air nicely now as well. Negative 925s are sagging south into the gorge.

 

This is looking good guys.

[umadbro]

I should do well with the upsloping.

[Timmy]

I should do well with the upsloping.

U should bro!

[jsf343]

I was just going to mention that I went into Gresham to get some errands done, and when I drove back home through Corbett and up the mountain the east wind was blowing pretty good again. Although the roads are slushy and still icy in spots, it seems like it is close to freezing again.

[chinook]

Ha, noticed KLMT reports rain last couple observations. My additional few hundred feet on the hill sometimes makes that much of a difference. The flakes outside don't lie to me.

 

 

how much snow does it take to rid your avatar?

[MossMan]

The wind advisory has been replaced by a high wind warning up in Whatcom Co. 

[Goducks09]

Any Euro snow maps?  Usually someone posts one  

[Kayla]

Temps have dropped down to 34º here from a high of 36º earlier this morning. I like my chances to start as snow right from the get go and will definitely reap the benefits of up sloping.

[Kayla]

Any Euro snow maps?  Usually someone posts one  

 

[Perturbed Member]

I see the NWS has updated their zone forecasts. Showing 2-4 inches for Hillsboro tonight and 1-2 inches tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

Temps have dropped down to 34º here from a high of 36º earlier this morning. I like my chances to start as snow right from the get go and will definitely reap the benefits of up sloping.

 

Yeah, you will definitely start as snow.

 

Northern and eastern areas have a chance as well, but I suspect there will be 1-3 hours of light rain for everyone below 500'.

[Kayla]

I see the NWS has updated their zone forecasts. Showing 2-4 inches for Hillsboro tonight and 1-2 inches tomorrow.

 

3-6" seems like a good forecast for the westside. I'd go with 2-4" at PDX.

[FroYoBro]

Temps have dropped down to 34º here from a high of 36º earlier this morning. I like my chances to start as snow right from the get go and will definitely reap the benefits of up sloping.

Yeah, your location is going to get buried. Make sure to share pictures tomorrow!

[Kayla]

Yeah, your location is going to get buried. Make sure to share pictures tomorrow!

 

Will do! 

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe I can get a flurry tonight, that would be exciting!