MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like Seattle cracked 50 again today. This month is really losing its stance statistically.Yeah this month is completely forgettable now, about as dull of weather as you can get since just before Christmas. Hopefully next winter will at least feature a windstorm or something...anything! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like Seattle cracked 50 again today. This month is really losing its stance statistically.How is Shawnigan Lake faring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like a 45/31 at SLE today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like a 45/31 at SLE today.KGW was wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 How is Shawnigan Lake faring?Fairly seasonal 44/31 here today. Overall on the month, Shawnigan is at 33.4 and Victoria is 36.1. Looks like most if not all stations around here will end January warmer than December. Still solidly below average for the winter to date. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Fairly seasonal 44/31 here today. Overall on the month, Shawnigan is at 33.4 and Victoria is 36.1. Looks like most if not all stations around here will end January warmer than December. Still solidly below average for the winter to date.Sounds chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 39/34 at Eugene today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Currently 12 here in Sunriver. Cant believe how cold it is here and it just started dumping about 30 minutes ago. What the hell is going on here? A ridiculous micro-climate like I've never seen before!!! Must be the disposition of the cold air pulling off the mink coats from Sunriver Lodge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yeah this month is completely forgettable now, about as dull of weather as you can get since just before Christmas. Hopefully next winter will at least feature a windstorm or something...anything!Muddy dogs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Most of the early/mid Holocene from 13,000 to 9,000 +/- 1000 years before present, and 7000 to 3500 +/- 500 years before present, was dominated by the +ENSO long term mode. The long term -ENSO mode dominated from 9000-7000 +/- 1000 years ago, and starting around 3500 +/- 500 years ago, the long term ENSO state began to decline again, and high frequency amplitude began to increase. There was a prolific +ENSO stretch about 1000yrs ago, however long term we're now headed down, and that increase 1000urs ago appears to be a mark of the increasing instability since then. This is a great paper: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999GMS...112..373C The long term +ENSO mode tends to be more stable and feature a reduction in high frequency (yearly/decadal/centennial) variability, while the long term -ENSO mode tends to be more unstable and feature increased high frequency variability. The more stable, +ENSO mode tends to precede the termination of ice ages and rapid warnings into stable interglacial states, while the unstable -ENSO mode tends to precede the termination of interglacials and marks the initiation of glacial states.Thanks for citing your stuff for once. I'll make sure to read that paper, it's really hard for me to tell how serious your posts are because they talk about stuff that isn't often talked about on the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Thanks for citing your stuff for once. I'll make sure to read that paper, it's really hard for me to tell how serious your posts are because they talk about stuff that isn't often talked about on the forum.Yeah, I usually don't cite common knowledge, since it's typically easy to find and verify. Obviously, paleoclimate is more hypothetical in nature, and is full of competing theories attempting to explain the oddities we see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Sounds chilly.For sure. Still some ice on the lake. An impressive start to January but has lost a lot of its punch recently. The Dec / Jan combo is going to be pretty notable overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Muddy dogs.Yep just like the last 5 January's! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yeah, I usually don't cite common knowledge, since it's typically easy to find and verify. Obviously, paleoclimate is more hypothetical in nature, and is full of competing theories attempting to explain the oddities we see.Just because it's common knowledge, doesn't mean that more casual users(majority, and including me for the most part) of the forum understand things more complicated than indices like PDO, NAO, ENSO and the blend of models NWS offices use to forecast mid-range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 0z GFS has trended slightly further north again after the 18z; not a bad trend for the Puget Sound/SW BC if it keeps up. Still good enough for a brief transitional snow. The ECMWF, unlike the GFS, has been relatively consistent and I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS trended more toward the ECMWF solution. Tonight's ECMWF will be interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Wow, this place is busy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Wow, this place is busy.Everyone gave up on winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Everyone gave up on winter.Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow?Of course Portland people are having a great winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Euro looks nice, just need a little more moisture midweek. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 0z ECMWF goes a little further south with the cold air at the start of the week but is much more aggressive with the low by Thursday. At face value this would be better for an overrunning snow than the previous run or what the GFS shows, and then there's this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012900/ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Wow, this place is busy.While my winter has been A+ in a valley. Its Saturday night. People do other things other than Obsess over one set of model runs. Weird, right? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like this will end up as the 4th coldest January on record at Baker City after their coldest December on record. This one will likely fall just behind 1949, 1979, and 1957 in that order. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looking at departures in the Willamette Valley, January should end up about -5 to -8. Pretty impressive. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 While my winter has been A+ in a valley. Its Saturday night. People do other things other than Obsess over one set of model runs. Weird, right?You still must have frozen fingers with how bad your grammar is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Snow Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 SnowPuget Sound snow? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Puget Sound snow?Haha. No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Salem to PDX Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up.I think February will be warm Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up.This should assure a chilly February. You don't consider lakes with ice thick enough that you can skate on it winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I think February will be warmSure is looking that way! Well at least we are getting some pre frontal breeze gusts up here...I guess that is some form of weather! Super exciting and expect hourly updates on breeze damage. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Some elk along the road just before dawn this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 March should be chilly Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 This should assure a chilly February. You don't consider lakes with ice thick enough that you can skate on it winter?I like snow at my house. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRG Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Geez, I step away for a while and now all of a sudden frozen things are back on the table mid week?!? I need to hang out with you guys more often... Portland AFD:http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Models continue theirtrend toward a more aggressive intrusion of cold air from BritishColumbia into eastern WA/OR by the midweek period. Am still somewhatskeptical of how fast some models are bringing in this cold air, butit is impossible to ignore what has been a steady trend over the pastcouple days` worth of model runs. As such, we made some fairlydramatic changes to the forecast, bringing the threat of snow orfreezing rain west of the Cascades and into the north WillametteValley by Wed morning. This is far from a lock at this point, asthere are many pieces that need to come together to make snow/freezing rain a reality in the PDX metro Wed. However, model trendscontinue to gravitate towards bringing these ingredients together.The northern stream system expected to push down the west coast ofCanada Mon night/Tue is moving faster and faster on latest modelruns. This system is now moving across the Aleutians, and will likelygain some acceleration southeastward as it dumbbells around the lowassociated with our current front. Also, the low currentlyapproaching the BC coast is expected to continue to strengthen ormerge with a larger system dropping down the crest of the Rockiesover the next 24-48 hours. Models now show decent agreement on thissystem latching onto some decent cold air as longwave ridging beginsto develop over Alaska and flow turns increasingly northerly acrosswestern Canada. The 00z ECMWF, GFS, and now NAM deterministic runsnow all show this. As mentioned in the short term discussion, thesqueeze between cold air from the north and milder air being pushednorthward by the low presently north of Hawaii will enhancefrontogenesis, eventually increasing precipitation along the frontalzone Tue-Wed. Meanwhile, increasingly cold air will be damming downthe east slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps coming down the westsidevia Fraser River outflow as well. By Wed night/Thu, most models getvery close to a snow sounding for Portland as precipitationincreases. If this all sounds very familiar to Jan 11, itshould...but there are some very notable differences. For one, theeastside cold air is not nearly as cold, deep, or entrenched as itwas prior to that event. However, it does now appear that enoughlow-level cold air will push through the Gorge to threaten at leastthe East PDX Metro with some freezing rain Wed/Thu. Some models, suchas the 00z GFS, and even nearly the 00z ECMWF, suggest the cold airmay be deep enough to support snow in the Gorge and perhaps thePortland area as well. We shall see.Will highlight the same caveat I have the last couple mornings;typically when there is a race between eastside cold air working itsway through the Gorge and moist/milder S-SW flow from the Pacific,the cold air often arrives a little slower than modeled. At thispoint, the most likely scenario appears to be a decent snow/ice eventfor portions of the Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley. Somefreezing rain will likely bleed into the East PDX Metro, bringingsome ice to Troutdale. However, snow/ice could either be much more orless widespread based on how the details evolve with our backdoorcold front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 According to NWS Seattle we have great news!! The airmass will be dry so any mention of snow in the lowlands have been dropped!! Isn't that just wonderful!!! I'm so happy!!! And my wife mentioned that she noticed the grass ( where we still have grass) is startling to grow! Let it spring Let it spring Let it spring!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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