January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

18z HRRR just initialized... Literally shows zero precip in the whole northern half of the state over the next 5 hours!

[Goducks09]

Oregon City/Mulino/Canby must be getting hammered again right now.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 32 already at 11 a.m.

 

A certain person was actually attacking people for even suggesting it could get above freezing there today.    35 was beyond ridiculous.    Lets see what happens.   

[Goducks09]

Crossing my fingers for a dusting with this incoming band.  Would help us with our overnight lows if it stuck around.

[Perturbed Member]

18z HRRR just initialized... Literally shows zero precip in the whole northern half of the state over the next 5 hours!

 

At this point I'm going mostly based on radar. HRRR didn't do all that well yesterday with the movement of this low and this precip either. Really none of the models did. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SEA is up to 32 already at 11 a.m.

 

A certain person was actually attacking people for even suggesting it could get above freezing there today. 35 was beyond ridiculous. Lets see what happens.

It became obvious a couple days ago the cold was going to bleed in like it so often does

[BLI snowman]

Probably the best band, as seen on radar, is headed straight for PDX-TTD area. We'll see if it can overcome the east wind in an hour.

 

Pretty unlikely.

[epiceast]

Pretty unlikely.

Yea if I had to make a forecast I would put accumulating snow west of west hills and south of hwy 26. Maybe even south of 212/224 east of I-205.

[Perturbed Member]

Alert: I just saw 1 snowflake fall from the sky here in Hillsboro.

 

SCORE!

[ShawniganLake]

The models I've looked at since Saturday showed the arctic front not moving the cold air in until tonight.  It looks delayed now half a day or so.  Front temps are moving into S BC, Hope has lost 5* since midnight with 5* dewpoint with the cold air filtering south.  I hope the NAM is wrong, forecast single digit lows for Abbotsford tomorrow night.  That air is already up the Fraser and Coquihalla.  Looks like it is spilling through into Omak and Spokane valley as well. 

Majorly delayed since what we were looking at in the models Thursday/Friday.  If the wind stays up, single digit lows for Abbotsford seem pretty unlikely.  Wind sheltered areas quite possibly as the snowcover is pretty extensive over there. 

[BLI snowman]

Yea if I had to make a forecast I would put accumulating snow west of west hills and south of hwy 26. Maybe even south of 212/224 east of I-205.

 

I would concur.

 

Lots of blue sky filtering through here in Clark County and in Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

SEA is up to 32 already at 11 a.m.

 

A certain person was actually attacking people for even suggesting it could get above freezing there today.    35 was beyond ridiculous.    Lets see what happens.   

Seattle or SeaTac? SeaTac is 32. The Seattle obs is always wayyy warmer than SeaTac.

[umadbro]

So not Woodburn but Newberg. You're still north of that main band.

That is why I said North of Woodburn. Keep up. I've had several bands roll over me this morning. Started to stick just a little bit. But since then it's been constantly snowing per radar with just a few flakes falling.

 

Why is this so difficult?

[MossMan]

I can smell a big over running event coming to the hood canal in 4 or 5 days.

How does Arlington smell to you?

[Kayla]

Yea if I had to make a forecast I would put accumulating snow west of west hills and south of hwy 26. Maybe even south of 212/224 east of I-205.

 

Agreed. Likely just a flurry storm here in the west hills.

[Perturbed Member]

That is why I said North of Woodburn. Keep up. I've had several bands roll over me this morning. Started to stick just a little bit. But since then it's been constantly snowing per radar with just a few flakes falling.

 

Why is this so difficult?

 

You mad bro?

[Deweydog]

Sunbreak!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How does Arlington smell to you?

I think you could do well. Still a lot to sort out in the models. Small shift would make a huge difference for everyone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunbreak!

 

You mad bro?

[Perturbed Member]

Good number of heavier echos starting to show up on radar. 

[umadbro]

You mad bro?

Haha. Oh man, I may have screwed up in my name choice. Oh well.

[Kayla]

Sunbreak!

 

Flurry storm cancel!

[Kayla]

Haha. Oh man, I may have screwed up in my name choice. Oh well.

 

Was just going to say you're doing your name justice. We're all friends here!

[Deweydog]

Flurry storm cancel!

Nothing is making it north of the river. That much is a known quantity.

[Heavy Snow]

Now THAT is a total mind ****. I don't buy it having an effect on our Arctic Blasts.. but goddamnit anything is possible.

Portland just had its wettest December ever in 2015 and wettest October ever 2 months ago in 100 years. It's only going to get worse. Right now its the worst it's ever been.

 

"China starts 2017 engulfed in smog, issues pollution alerts

 

With air particulate levels well above WHO recommended levels, flights cancelled, highways closed"

 

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/technology/china-new-year-smog-1.3918388

[Timmy]

Flurry storm cancel!

You mad bro girl?

[Kayla]

Nothing is making it north of the river. That much is a known quantity.

 

Word dog...

[dairyd]

Majorly delayed since what we were looking at in the models Thursday/Friday.  If the wind stays up, single digit lows for Abbotsford seem pretty unlikely.  Wind sheltered areas quite possibly as the snowcover is pretty extensive over there. 

 

NAM was accurate for us last time on temps, NWS forecast lows of 20 and 18 we had 14 and 11 and that was when most of the snow was blown out.  pressure differential is narrowing as the low moves/weakens so the wind should calm down as forecast.  Snowcover is everywhere.  I don't want it that cold.  But crap it is cold up the valley.

[Kayla]

You mad bro girl?

 

Haha! Still so upset about the 5" of snowfall I got yesterday!

[BLI snowman]

Radar looks nice for Salem, they've done well so far.

[crf450ish]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Radar looks nice for Salem, they've done well so far.

Why you mad bro?

[luvssnow_spokane]

At a glorious 36 here and climbing. Shooting for 38 to 40 today... This is way better than I ever anticipated. I think we all be remembering this one for a long time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At a glorious 36 here and climbing. Shooting for 38 to 40 today... This is way better than I ever anticipated. I think we all be remembering this one for a long time. 

Dude you sure your meter is right? its only 32 in port orchard in the sunlight.

[Deweydog]

Analog update?

[Dave]

It's official.  Brookings has outdone Eugene in this event.  Snow there.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Hwy%20101%20at%20Brookings%20NB_pid1804.JPG

[Deweydog]

Downslope has kicked in here!

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z ECMWF says there will be a transition event on Saturday evening in Seattle... might mean snow for the playoff game at 5 p.m.  

 

Sunday is a rainy mess for everyone on that run.  

[The Swamp]

At a glorious 36 here and climbing. Shooting for 38 to 40 today... This is way better than I ever anticipated. I think we all be remembering this one for a long time. 

 

I've got 42.8 in the shade here in the swamp.

 

I will admit when I am wrong.  I called for a high of 35 today.  This event is a bust for me.

[MossMan]

Dude you sure your meter is right? its only 32 in port orchard in the sunlight.

And only up to 29 here!