January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3/4" new snow in the past 45 minutes.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning....

 

 

 

[FroYoBro]

That low from the south looks pretty weak on the 12z GFS. Just shows some light snow in the valley. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low from the south looks pretty weak on the 12z GFS. Just shows some light snow in the valley.

Guess we get our cold week

[FroYoBro]

Guess we get our cold week

 

Meh. It doesn't make a huge difference. I would rather have the low a little stronger and take some snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX down to freezing

[MossMan]

Was 28 when I woke up at 5am, now 26.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing in NE Salem a solid dusting.

[Prairiedog]

It was pretty interesting yesterday. We had gone snowshoeing up in the hills above Estacada and when we came back there had been about 1/4" grauple on the ground with some pretty dark clouds rolling out.  Temp was hanging about 33-34f.  About an hr later it started snowing with pretty large fluffy flakes, and temp dropped to 32f.   Ended up with 1.5" on top of the grauple.  Don't recall that combo of events happening before.  Obviously the atmosphere was a bit chaotic.  Pretty intense line of showers from about Silverton up to somewhere around Sandy.  Areas west towards Portland got nothing.  I'm between Oregon City and Estacada.  30f right now and beautiful out finally with some snow on the ground. 

[crf450ish]

[FroYoBro]

It was pretty interesting yesterday. We had gone snowshoeing up in the hills above Estacada and when we came back there had been about 1/4" grauple on the ground with some pretty dark clouds rolling out.  Temp was hanging about 33-34f.  About an hr later it started snowing with pretty large fluffy flakes, and temp dropped to 32f.   Ended up with 1.5" on top of the grauple.  Don't recall that combo of events happening before.  Obviously the atmosphere was a bit chaotic.  Pretty intense line of showers from about Silverton up to somewhere around Sandy.  Areas west towards Portland got nothing.  I'm between Oregon City and Estacada.  30f right now and beautiful out finally with some snow on the ground. 

 

Nice. You won the snow lotto with that little line!

[EA_TTD]

2004 no Bueno.

http://www.oregonphotos.com/Ice%20Storm%202004.html

[The Swamp]

32 here in the swamp this morning.

 

Still waiting for some arctic air.

 

It might not make it I'm afraid.

[MossMan]

32 here in the swamp this morning.

 

Still waiting for some arctic air.

 

It might not make it I'm afraid.

26 here with a DP of 19...I think it's coming your way! Was able to retain some snow on my deck and grass!

[The Swamp]

26 here with a DP of 19...I think it's coming your way! Was able to retain some snow on my deck and grass!

It's very dry out so I'm sure the DP's are more impressive. Retained no snow but has been fun to watch fall from he sky. I'll take it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like another band of snow is developing on a Salem/Molalla line and moving NW. 

 

The GEM shows the same snow band forming this afternoon that the NAM Hi-RES shows. GEM is actually a little more widespread with it, wants to give Eugene about 3". 

[Dave]

Eugene reporting light snow the past couple hours...Hopefully Dolt picked up something. Looks like they got 0.04" of precip during the 4 o'clock hour. 

Nada.  I don't necessarily believe those airport obs for light snow.  I've seen them say that a few times this season when there wasn't a flake to be found in Eugene.

 

Looks like Wednesday will be the last chance for me before a rapid warmup this weekend and no sign of winter returning.  Holy christ is it hard to make snow here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nada.  I don't necessarily believe those airport obs for light snow.  I've seen them say that a few times this season when there wasn't a flake to be found in Eugene.

 

Looks like Wednesday will be the last chance for me before a rapid warmup this weekend and no sign of winter returning.  Holy christ is it hard to make snow here.

 

If it makes you feel better some light snow is breaking out here in downtown Salem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models trending toward some kind of overrunning this weekend, and the GEM wants the N and S stream to do battle in the long range it appears...

 

GEM has 1-2" PDX to EUG Wednesday.

[Dave]

If it makes you feel better some light snow is breaking out here in downtown Salem.

Enjoy them.  I don't wish ill on anyone else.  I'm just ready to Eugene to score.  What made it worse is that I told friends/family about this event several days ago.  Big mistake.  I've learned not to do that before, yet I keep doing it.  Crap.

[The Swamp]

Enjoy them.  I don't wish ill on anyone else.  I'm just ready to Eugene to score.  What made it worse is that I told friends/family about this event several days ago.  Big mistake.  I've learned not to do that before, yet I keep doing it.  Crap.

 

Don't get too down on yourself.  I do/did the same thing.  More often than not it comes back to bite me.

 

Told the office before leaving for the weekend that we were going into the deep freeze and there would be a skiff of snow.  They all laughed as I told them I was going to build a snow person.

 

Dreading going to work now.  They will continue to laugh at me.

[Deweydog]

Still snowing on I-5 in Lewis County...

[MossMan]

Models trending toward some kind of overrunning this weekend, and the GEM wants the N and S stream to do battle in the long range it appears...

 

GEM has 1-2" PDX to EUG Wednesday.

Looking at the models with my inexperienced eye it doesn't appear to be much of up in the Puget Sound region... perhaps a very brief overrunning on the weekend but that's about it? Looks like south will be the winners once again.

[Timmy]

Still snowing on I-5 in Lewis County...

It's all going to melt though.

[Kayla]

Looking more likely many people around the PDX metro will see some light snow today with wrap around moisture. Interested to see how well the bands hold together through the morning and into the afternoon. Of course locations near the Gorge will be dry slotted but locations such as Oregon City could get in on some fun.

[Deweydog]

It's all going to melt though.

We outsmarted that process here!

[Goducks09]

Looking more likely many people around the PDX metro will see some light snow today with wrap around moisture. Interested to see how well the bands hold together through the morning and into the afternoon. Of course locations near the Gorge will be dry slotted but locations such as Oregon City could get in on some fun.

 

Man, I hope so.  Would like to see a dusting down here at least!  Looks like a band moving N to S in southern Clackamas County.  Perhaps that can hold together and make it to the metro area.  Not holding my breath!

[FroYoBro]

Looking more likely many people around the PDX metro will see some light snow today with wrap around moisture. Interested to see how the bands hold together through the morning and into the afternoon. Of course locations near the Gorge will be dry slotted but locations such as Oregon City could get in on some fun.

 

Radar shows a little something over me, but I haven't even seen one flake. Might be too weak to see anything. 

[Kayla]

As Andrew mentioned, the 12z NAM 3km is pretty bullish with a snow band moving across the area later this evening. Moisture gets completely eaten up near the gorge but points south look to do well.

 

[Kayla]

Man, I hope so.  Would like to see a dusting down here at least!  Looks like a band moving N to S in southern Clackamas County.  Perhaps that can hold together and make it to the metro area.  Not holding my breath!

 

Yeah it's going to be tough for any moisture to work it's way down near the gorge. Most likely just some flurries for downtown PDX.

[Jesse]

At least it looks like we are heading into our coldest stretch of winter so far now. PDX could string 3-4 sub freezing highs together if things work out.

[Kayla]

Radar shows a little something over me, but I haven't even seen one flake. Might be too weak to see anything. 

 

You might be in a bit of a better spot to see a dusting today/tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Sun!!

 

 

[FroYoBro]

You might be in a bit of a better spot to see a dusting today/tonight.

 

Perhaps. I'll probably at least see some flurries. The dry wind is already ramping up out there. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Larch Mt(WA) Already gusting to 40mph and with a weak gradient. The east wind/downslope to get very bad by Tuesday. Also, Mesoanalysis shows 850s are down to -9c over PDX. 1c colder than modeled(6z) and it's likely to drop to -10c maybe -11c. Colder due to snow covered Columbia Basin/Gorge perhaps..... 12z GFS Op was pretty close to being great. The Super Ensemble Day 6-10, 8-14 Composite Analog was improved with the block hanging around 160 W no longer retrograding to the Bering Sea and strong SE ridge signal.

[Timmy]

Some shots from this morning. The one of the valley is looking towards pdx from the NW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some shots from this morning. The one of the valley is looking towards pdx from the NW.

Beautiful pics... And you have some breaks in the clouds!

[epiceast]

38" in 24 hours at mission ridge. The swamp ski resort of (Eastern) Cascades scored big. Also multiple foot+ accumulations in Yakima valley. You guys know who stole your snow now.

[HighlandExperience]

Looking at the models with my inexperienced eye it doesn't appear to be much of up in the Puget Sound region... perhaps a very brief overrunning on the weekend but that's about it? Looks like south will be the winners once again.

 

Looks like another weak transition event where the cold air erodes away. Typical.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38" in 24 hours at mission ridge. The swamp ski resort of (Eastern) Cascades scored big. Also multiple foot+ accumulations in Yakima valley. You guys know who stole your snow now.

Wow!