Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Anyone have Euro details? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Tons of ice for KS/E. NE and IA. WB doesn't have ice amounts, but it looks more impressive than 12z and a lot more QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 W. KS/C. NE/SE SD receive a solid 6-12 inches of snow. W. IA and W. MN probably 4-8. Develops a solid defo. band before it weakens as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 In terms of precip: E. NE receive 1.8-2.0 QPF (majority frozen) Nearly all of KS 2.0+C/SW/W IA 1.0+ (frozen) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 00Z Euro--- catastrophic if it verifies OMA-MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.8 0.9 1024 82 98 0.10 565 546 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.7 3.6 1020 89 98 0.36 563 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.3 3.5 1016 96 95 0.62 559 547 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.0 3.6 1013 97 73 0.15 554 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.4 2.3 1010 98 96 0.20 550 542 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.4 -0.7 1008 94 92 0.09 546 539 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.9 -3.3 1010 84 66 0.09 547 539 LNK-MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.2 1.4 1025 61 87 0.03 565 545 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.3 1.8 1023 89 97 0.16 564 546 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.1 3.6 1018 93 99 0.49 561 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.7 3.2 1015 96 94 0.54 558 546 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.7 3.2 1012 96 73 0.11 553 543 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.1 1.2 1011 95 97 0.22 549 541 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.5 -2.0 1010 92 98 0.16 547 539 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.2 -2.6 1011 81 59 0.08 549 541 even MSP goes RA and FZRA--- a bad sign overall that the WAA is winning out--TUE 00Z 17-JAN -3.7 0.1 1021 79 98 0.05 561 544 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.2 2.8 1016 88 94 0.18 558 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.1 2.4 1010 93 85 0.08 553 544 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.3 1.0 1006 94 97 0.06 547 542 WED 00Z 18-JAN 0.4 -1.3 1005 99 92 0.13 544 540 WED 06Z 18-JAN 0.1 -0.8 1006 98 74 0.01 546 541 HSIMON 00Z 16-JAN -2.5 0.6 1025 73 94 0.03 564 545 MON 06Z 16-JAN -3.0 1.4 1023 84 98 0.08 563 545 MON 12Z 16-JAN -3.1 2.4 1017 92 96 0.35 559 546 MON 18Z 16-JAN -2.8 -1.8 1016 93 86 0.35 556 543 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -3.3 -1.3 1015 92 95 0.10 552 540 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -3.9 -2.7 1014 90 87 0.08 550 539 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -3.0 1013 88 82 0.03 549 539 DSM-MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 1.6 1026 71 98 0.02 566 545 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.6 3.8 1022 89 99 0.22 565 548 MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.4 5.6 1018 96 97 0.54 563 549 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.8 5.8 1013 99 92 0.20 558 548 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.2 4.0 1009 99 79 0.19 554 547 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.0 -2.1 1007 96 55 0.00 548 543 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.9 -0.2 1006 89 88 0.01 545 540 WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.3 -2.9 1010 78 56 0.01 551 543 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 follow $$'s details and the above raw #'s with this QPF and it's just not a good situation-- one thing to think about is that the Euro has gradually been shifting the ice N and W with time. If that trend continues,, it will be Sioux City to FSD to MSP that see the crap. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 MHK (Manhattan,KS) I don't even know if something like this has happened before in these areas in recorded history-- FRI 18Z 13-JAN -4.8 1.4 1038 36 75 0.01 574 545 SAT 00Z 14-JAN -5.2 2.6 1037 57 40 0.01 574 546 SAT 06Z 14-JAN -4.5 3.5 1036 54 90 0.00 575 547 SAT 12Z 14-JAN -4.2 3.1 1035 57 35 0.01 574 546 SAT 18Z 14-JAN -2.4 3.9 1034 46 55 0.00 574 547 SUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.5 4.0 1032 70 94 0.04 573 548 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -3.1 3.1 1031 80 92 0.24 572 547 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.2 3.0 1029 88 98 0.15 569 546 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.7 3.9 1026 94 99 0.56 568 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.1 5.1 1023 95 100 0.28 567 549 MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.8 7.1 1019 97 99 0.66 565 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.2 6.6 1011 98 82 0.65 560 551 MON 18Z 16-JAN 4.0 6.1 1009 99 62 0.05 554 547 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 3.1 1.4 1008 99 90 0.10 549 543 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.3 0.3 1010 98 81 0.02 550 542 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.4 -0.8 1011 91 83 0.01 549 540 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Looks ugly on paper, but im still very confident Lincoln sees mostly plain rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Weather Channel can't stop talking about the ice event this weekend. That's all they been talking about since 5:30. Cantore is in Lake tahoe. They have had 114 inches of snow in 3 days. Much more higher up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Weather Channel can't stop talking about the ice event this weekend. That's all they been talking about since 5:30. Cantore is in Lake tahoe. They have had 114 inches of snow in 3 days. Much more higher upOne spot got 38" in 24 hours...pure heaven! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 GFS is all over the place. High pressure holds it down and then it slowly moves up next Wed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Disclamer - when you see the CO front range, Dakotas to UP of Mich getting slammed with snow, you got a season that's at least behaving like a Nino, regardless of what ENSO graphs say. Call it delayed response or due to Modiki signature or whatever you want to call it, but it is what it is and there's no white washing it for those that keep getting warm rainers. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 My forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies along with cold temps this weekend. It keeps the storminess to my south. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Hmmm...that HP in MN that was showing on the previous GFS runs isn't there on the 12z, allowing the low to come more north thru 126. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 As I am likely one of the younger members on this forum, I have never actually experienced an ice storm. That being said, I do not really want to... Hopefully the models are incorrect on this one as it would be catastrophic for much of the central CONUS. The models seemed to have been trending north a bit lately bringing those of us in MN into the mess this system could create. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I'll be quite surprised if I wind up with Ice where I am and not just plain rain. Have not seen a decent ice storm here since 2005. Local forecast has me at 35 on Monday which means just a cold rain, pffft! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Well, GFS is a devastating ice storm from Texas up thru Nebraska and on East with heavy snow off to the Northwest. The Canadian has a little more snow on top of the ice. This is looking like a mess........ Total QPF from both models..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Total snow and ice from both models..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Thanks for posting all the maps Gabel. Looks like a total nightmare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 It's almost a game of QPF now. How much ice do we get vs. if it will happen. It's such a vast area I don't think there's any question as to if we don't get any. Crazy that the EURO/CMC/GFS all show ice in the catastrophic category for Eastern Nebraska, esp. towards the Lincoln/Hastings area. EDIT: Where is CentralNebWeather at?!?! Looks like he'll actually get some snow out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Well, GFS is a devastating ice storm from Texas up thru Nebraska and on East with heavy snow off to the Northwest. The Canadian has a little more snow on top of the ice. This is looking like a mess........ Hard to tell from total maps, what comes first? Are you saying that it's ice > snow for those lucky enough to get snow, or is it more the reverse? Snow > ice > rain even? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Hard to tell from total maps, what comes first? Are you saying that it's ice > snow for those lucky enough to get snow, or is it more the reverse? Snow > ice > rain even?Looks to me like rain/ice first....then a deformation band forms with the snow as the low shifts off to the northeast. Talk about a slow mover, looks like a 2 day event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 It's almost a game of QPF now. How much ice do we get vs. if it will happen. It's such a vast area I don't think there's any question as to if we don't get any. Crazy that the EURO/CMC/GFS all show ice in the catastrophic category for Eastern Nebraska, esp. towards the Lincoln/Hastings area. EDIT: Where is CentralNebWeather at?!?! Looks like he'll actually get some snow out of this.I think he lives in Holdrege, it looks like ice over to snow for him. I"m right on the line of ice changing to snow. It's still way to early in the game to talk temp profiles though, it will be a thread the needle situation for a lot of folks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 He think he lives in Holdrege I think, it looks like ice over to snow for him. I"m right on the line of ice changing to snow. It's still way to early in the game to talk temp profiles though, it will be a thread the needle situation for a lot of folks! True, definitely a thread the needle type of event. I don't like my chances of snow in Lincoln, too far south. I think our chances of freezing rain are compromised even. We'll see. If these pan out, then there's going to be major problems for this city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 This GFS run brings the storm in Sunday-ish now compared to Wed on last run haha. Lines up more with the other models. This is looking more and more like an ice storm for a lot of us. The last big one i experienced was Feb 07 when we had nearly 2" of ice. Poles were snapped.....lines down....power was out for 3 days...up to a week in some areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 When ever someone can if you could post the EURO info that would be great. Would love to compare the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I've never experienced an ice storm of any significance in my lifetime that I can remember. I'm hoping this isn't my first. Nothing's really been changing on the models though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Whats surface temps on GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 This GFS run brings the storm in Sunday-ish now compared to Wed on last run haha. Lines up more with the other models. This is looking more and more like an ice storm for a lot of us. The last big one i experienced was Feb 07 when we had nearly 2" of ice. Poles were snapped.....lines down....power was out for 3 days...up to a week in some areas.I remember that. It was crazy!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 EURO is stronger at 120 hr - 144hr. Temps look pretty similar as well. Hard to read with the crappy maps, but it looks like a nail biter for Nebraskans in terms of snow/ice/rain. If this run is all freezing rain, it looks like it could be disastrous once again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Not much talk of Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Even more ice then last run,, will post data when I get to desktop. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Even more ice then last run,, will post data when I get to desktop.Wow! And thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I heard the Euro is mostly rain for Lincoln. not sure if true though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Looks like the GFS is a bit warmer than the other models through the weekend. Something to keep an eye on. Also of importance is the role that the deep fresh snowpack will have on surface temps for those in the northern part of the sub (assuming precip makes it that far). One of the more complex storms we've seen in a while for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I heard the Euro is mostly rain for Lincoln. not sure if true thoughWrong shows well over an inch of fzr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Wrong shows well over an inch of fzrwhat about mby and yby? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Wrong shows well over an inch of fzrGoddamnit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Looks like the GFS is a bit warmer than the other models through the weekend. Something to keep an eye on. Also of importance is the role that the deep fresh snowpack will have on surface temps for those in the northern part of the sub (assuming precip makes it that far). One of the more complex storms we've seen in a while for sure. Peeps saying be careful with GFS's apparent warm 2m temps as it handles low level cold rather poorly. Shorter range guidance all pointing to the freezing line being well south of GFS's portrayal for first wave of precip fwiw. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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