February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last page made me realize how many people live in very snowy spots on this board. 

 

 

 

Yes I think most people on here live in spots that get more snow than where the majority of people live. Yesterday morning at one point it seemed like everyone in the Puget Sound area was posting about snow at their location. I went and looked at the W. WA airport obs and only like Everett and BLI were reporting snow. Every other station was reporting either rain or cloudy skies with temps in the mid to upper 30s. 

[Front Ranger]

Epiceast, Dareduck, Timmysupercell, Shawniganlake...you all are well ahead of me at this point. I'm sitting at 28" on the season.

[Front Ranger]

Yes I think most people on here live in spots that get more snow than where the majority of people live. Yesterday morning at one point it seemed like everyone in the Puget Sound area was posting about snow at their location. I went and looked at the W. WA airport obs and only like Everett and BLI were reporting snow. Every other station was reporting either rain or cloudy skies with temps in the mid to upper 30s. 

 

There was widespread lowland snowfall in western WA yesterday.

[BLI snowman]

While we do okay in March and April there's a large drop-off in average snowfall in Spring unlike in the plains part of Montana, or continental divide area(bozeman) where March can be the snowiest month and April is equivalent to November/February. 

March here gets just a skiff less snow than November according to 81-10 data.

 

Early April 1955 was the most extreme snowfall on record in Billings. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was widespread lowland snowfall in western WA yesterday.

You would have never known by looking at any of the hourly obs...

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Doubt that. They didn't get more than a dusting in January, and had maybe 6" in December and in early February.

 

They got more than a dusting in January, two separate snowfalls, but yeah I was exaggerating. No way to know for sure, but they did well in early February and better than most places in December. 

[BLI snowman]

They got more than a dusting in January, two separate snowfalls, but yeah I was exaggerating. No way to know for sure, but they did well in early February and better than most places in December. 

 

They had maybe had a tenth of an inch of slush on New Year's Day

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/2017/1/1/DailyHistory.html

 

and maybe a couple tenths of an inch on January 11

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/2017/1/11/DailyHistory.html

 

Basically a dusting.

[Front Ranger]

You would have never known by looking at any of the hourly obs...

 

 

Depends when and where you were looking. Look at SEA's obs yesterday afternoon.

 

And other than Everett, there's not many obs for the CZ areas.

[Front Ranger]

They had maybe had a tenth of an inch of slush on New Year's Day

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/2017/1/1/DailyHistory.html

 

and maybe a couple tenths of an inch on January 11

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/2017/1/11/DailyHistory.html

 

Basically a dusting.

 

Pretty sure I remember CTA, our one Olympia area poster, saying he got an inch or two in January. And don't forget OLM killed it early on this month: https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/2017/2/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

Either way, no way to know for sure how much OLM got this winter. Would be nice if they started recording snowfall again.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty sure I remember CTA, our one Olympia area poster, saying he got an inch or two in January.

 

Either way, no way to know for sure how much OLM got this winter. Would be nice if they started recording snowfall again.

 

Downtown Portland (15.5") has almost assuredly had more than downtown Olympia or OLM. Sorry.

[Front Ranger]

Downtown Portland (15.5") has almost assuredly had more than downtown Olympia or OLM. Sorry.

 

Ok. Nothing to be sorry about. 

[BLI snowman]

Ok. Nothing to be sorry about. 

 

Just sad to see OLM fall so much from their heyday in the 1960s and 1970s. There was a time when it was effortless for them to get a 5"  slopstorm at 33 while it was 40 and raining at PDX and SEA. 

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, the 2/5-2/6 storm at OLM brought .88" of all snow precip. That was a big snowfall for them, and it started much earlier than places further north.

[IbrChris]

Fairly persistent low-grade cold pattern coming up (courtesy of a +EPO/GoA trough). Mean temp and departures for PDX based on the consensus forecast ensemble:

1-5 day period

Mean: 42.9 F
Departure: -3.1 F
 

6-10 day period
Mean: 44.0 F

Departure: -2.9 F
 

11-15 day period
Mean: 44.2 F
Departure: -3.5 F

Departures based on the 1981-2010 normal mean temp for each period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Depends when and where you were looking. Look at SEA's obs yesterday afternoon.

 

And other than Everett, there's not many obs for the CZ areas.

 

I am sort of just being a pill. I know a lot of places got snow. 

[WinterSquall23]

34.4 degrees here, but just down the hill its 41 in town.  

[IbrChris]

Looking at NWS MOS verification it really sh*t the bed in January.

Hour 120 Max Temp MAE (00z run)

 

Hour 120 Max Temp Bias (00z runs)



Compare to last 12 months here: http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~verification/mos/index.php

[Jesse]

Yes I think most people on here live in spots that get more snow than where the majority of people live. Yesterday morning at one point it seemed like everyone in the Puget Sound area was posting about snow at their location. I went and looked at the W. WA airport obs and only like Everett and BLI were reporting snow. Every other station was reporting either rain or cloudy skies with temps in the mid to upper 30s.

This is really misleading.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is really misleading.

 

Its actually not. I posted the observations from the time I referenced and low and behold the vast majority of reporting stations were reporting cloudy skies or rain. I then posted the obs from 7pm which showed the same thing. Not saying a lot of people did not see snow, but the vast majority or reporting stations did not. 

[HighlandExperience]

Yes I think most people on here live in spots that get more snow than where the majority of people live. Yesterday morning at one point it seemed like everyone in the Puget Sound area was posting about snow at their location. I went and looked at the W. WA airport obs and only like Everett and BLI were reporting snow. Every other station was reporting either rain or cloudy skies with temps in the mid to upper 30s.

It snowed heavily in downtown Seattle yesterday. Quite a feat for almost March. Most people in Puget Sound received at least a half inch.

[TT-SEA]

Just crazy... no wind here at all and the temp has been stuck at 34 despite occasional bursts of blindingly bright sun.   

 

There is still a fair amount of snow on the trees... and still 8 inches of snow on the ground.   

 

Where is the strong SW wind when I actually want it?    Can't stop it in December and January but when I want snow to melt we can't buy a whisper of a breeze here.  

[Fircrest]

It snowed heavily in downtown Seattle yesterday. Quite a feat for almost March. Most people in Puget Sound received at least a half inch.

I am going to speak for Tacoma, especially the west side.  It has not been a good snow winter for us. Very frustrating. I have only had a little over 4" for the whole season.  Even the "big" February event was just under 3" for my location in Fircrest. And yesterday was just snow mixed with rain here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am going to speak for Tacoma, especially the west side.  It has not been a good snow winter for us. Very frustrating. I have only had a little over 4" for the whole season.  Even the "big" February event was just under 3" for my location in Fircrest. And yesterday was just snow mixed with rain here.

If it was not for the 12 inches I got at the beginning of the month this winter would have been a nightmare.

 

Overall, most of everything I have received has mainly been very wet to non-accumulating snow. LOTs of cold rain and mixed snow and rain. The 2inches I got about a week and half ago melted before noon so not much to write home about. I am happy with the 12 inches I received but even that only lasted about 2 days. If that had not happened this would have been a winter of mostly marginal to missed snow events and lots of dry cold = A winter of massive snow potential that never really delivered accumulating snow...

 

I am NOT complaining, but I think that has been the case for many people who live in the Puget Sound. SO I concur with Fircrest... 

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is really misleading.

Not at all... I drive 30 miles too and from work and what he is saying is not inaccurate at all. It is observations on the ground that matter. YEs, many received some wet snow, but much of that was very borderline for accumulation if any. My entire drive (Bonney Lake to Boeing Field) was a wet mainly snowless valley with a little spotty slop about 400 to 500 ft. Some areas had none. Not misleading, just a fair view of what happened up here. NOT a bad thing just is what it is... HEY at least we got to see snow fall which is better than most years!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I understand your frustration. Considering that this has been the coldest winter in decades, it sure lacks in the snow department. We should be sitting at 25+ inches right now

Actually I am not frustrated at all... (not sure if you read my whole post) I am very happy. Just not as epic as some may make it out to be from a real-world view, but the stats sure look good. Although that 12inches looked pretty epic the morning I woke up to it. It was amazing!

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah March and April can be huge snow months in Montana. It can snow into May in K-Falls though usually just an inch or so. I remember Timmy SuperCell posting pics a couple years ago of snow around May 20th, I think it was 2013. 

 

I've only seen snow a few times in May. 05/20 was my latest and it was in 2011. Before we bought this house.

 

The last time I had snow in May was 05/06/2015 (that was a thundersnow also!). It's actually a bit rarer than some think. Last year my latest was in late April. 

 

A lot of people mention snow in June or around 4th of July but they are long time folks and it's been about a decade or something when that last happened. Well before I moved here, let's put it that way.

 

But yeah generally I get pretty late snows. 

 

I don't even think May has an average of snowfall, but April averages 1.00". Based on what I've seen, when we get snow in May it's on 1 day or 2 days at most, and never in the middle of the day. They would fall overnight and I'd wake up to it, and have it melt off before the high. 05/20/2011 may have been the last time we had snow in the afternoon. I'd imagine it's difficult to pull off. Perhaps it used to happen more decades ago, not sure. 

[HighlandExperience]

[epiceast]

Early April 1955 was the most extreme snowfall on record in Billings. 

Billings is almost as far east as Denver.

[Fircrest]

I get it. I'm just saying with all this epic cold we should have a lot more snow

Yeah, there should have been a lot more snow.  It sure was fun model riding and having so many chances all winter, but in the end I think the Tacoma and even Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula area did not do well with snowfall.  Hopefully the next several winters will be great!

[epiceast]

Yeah, there should have been a lot more snow.  It sure was fun model riding and having so many chances all winter, but in the end I think the Tacoma and even Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula area did not do well with snowfall.  Hopefully the next several winters will be great!

Outside of Oregon, only a few select suburbs in Pierce county, and places up north in Whatcom and in Canada did well this winter.

[Jesse]

pdx could hit 50 today sun angles doing they're thing wow

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing again across the north shore of Vancouver.

[Jesse]

Its actually not. I posted the observations from the time I referenced and low and behold the vast majority of reporting stations were reporting cloudy skies or rain. I then posted the obs from 7pm which showed the same thing. Not saying a lot of people did not see snow, but the vast majority or reporting stations did not.

Stop trying to be Tim. There's already one and he's better at it.

[Front Ranger]

Outside of Oregon, only a few select suburbs in Pierce county, and places up north in Whatcom and in Canada did well this winter.

 

Nah, SW WA up to Olympia area has done well, parts of King/Snohomish County have done well. 11.2" at SEA, and they weren't among the places hardest hit with the early Feb snowstorm that dumped 8"+ over much of east Seattle metro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still a lot of snow left. Hit 42 today, already back down to 36 under clearing skies.

[Guest Sounder]

Yeah, there should have been a lot more snow.  It sure was fun model riding and having so many chances all winter, but in the end I think the Tacoma and even Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula area did not do well with snowfall.  Hopefully the next several winters will be great!

I think it's also important to note that the snowfalls in Western WA were almost all very borderline on temps, meaning those in the city or close to the water likely have a very different perspective on this winter. Downtown Portland got absolutely buried even at the lowest elevations. If you live on the waterfront in Seattle however, you probably haven't seen more than an inch this whole season. Big differences in elevation up here, whereas the whole PDX Metro seems to have scored more more uniformly.

[epiceast]

I think it's also important to note that the snowfalls in Western WA were almost all very borderline on temps, meaning those in the city or close to the water likely have a very different perspective on this winter. Downtown Portland got absolutely buried even at the lowest elevations. If you live on the waterfront in Seattle however, you probably haven't seen more than an inch this whole season. Big differences in elevation up here, whereas the whole PDX Metro seems to have scored more more uniformly.

Lots of city hills did well in Seattle(particularly west), because most of these events were elevation driven and not cold pool/radiationally cooling or even favored by convergence zone. Most of Seattle is just as hilly as the Eastside until you almost get into the exurbs, only reason the eastside does better is because of favorable convergence zone setups. There's a reason why north sound posters are crying wolf.

[luminen]

Snowing again across the north shore of Vancouver.

 

Where I am at 140' it didn't stick. This weekend is looking good though.

[Bryant]

Puppy approves of the snow

 

http://i.imgur.com/qx3HpJp.jpg