March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[NEJeremy]

i was just outside and cleard snow off the driveway and it is so nice that the snow is starting to melt and i am thinking that we will get at lease two more shots of artic air before we start to warm up.

Both those shots coming before the 16th then? Because I am banking on winter being done with on the 16th.... don't tell me you steered me wrong or I will lose all faith in your predictions!

[Tom]

CFSv2 agrees with what I'm talking about...Canada reloads in some late season cold later this month and doesn't go anywhere as we head into April.  The winter that keeps on giving.  I'd expect the colder anomalies to edge a little farther south that what this map indicates as the cold has won the battles this winter.  However, I wouldn't see it go nearly as far south as it has been during this winter as the south is warming up dramatically.  This should translate into an active stormy pattern as well.

 

Keep in mind as well how cold the model see's air building in Canada.  As we get closer, this will translate to even colder temps.  Lot's on the table this month before its over.

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles with off the charts cold from Plains/East mid month.   I don't see a warming pattern in this map now do you????

[indianajohn]

Did I just read euro showing an epic snowmaggedom of 30-40"? No way that comes true........does it?

[gabel23]

12z Euro Ensembles with off the charts cold from Plains/East mid month.   I don't see a warming pattern in this map now do you????

Wow those are some cold anomalies!! Just what we need, more cold dry air for me and more snow off to the East. I'm ready for golf since we can't squeeze one flipping storm in our area!!! Crazy how good that map lines up with the LRC, it has been spot on this year. 

[tim the weatherman]

ALERT, ALERT...............Latest 12Z Euro throws 30-42" to NE Ohio, NW and extreme north PA thru about its center point and then much of western NY. Wow, Euro really wants to phase this storm.

i think that this model really over did it.

[Money]

LOT

 

NOW ONTO THE BAD NEWS. ITS LIKELY THAT THE TASTE OF SPRING ON MONDAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT-LIVED IN AS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL YET
AGAIN AMPLIFY AND FAVOR STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN EASTERN NOAM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE BACK IN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON TIMING. ALSO THERE IS NOW FAIRLY DECENT OPERATIONAL AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN. PRECIP COULD START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON FASTER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS PER THE SLOWER
GUIDANCE. TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL AND
ALSO IF WE DO WHETHER ITS PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN TO SNOW SETUP.
THUS ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONE TO
WATCH. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO LINGER BEYOND
DAY 7...KEEPING COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH LOCKED
IN OVERALL. WE JUST CANT SEEM TO SHAKE THE NEVER ENDING WINTER OF
2013-14 IT SEEMS.

[Tom]

+1 Money, I don't see how one can make an educated forecast and expect warmth when we are in a pattern that prevents any significant extended warm up???  I mean, you can't expect a pattern that is locked in to "flip" all of a sudden.  It's obvious that the cold will be getting less extreme but the extreme cold we have had in Jan/Feb was bone chilling cold so if we were to expect another extremely cold month in March, temps in the 10's/20's are not out of the question.  Especially when there is still such a deep snow pack in WI/MN and points north.  IA/IL/IN will have a bit of a hit the next few days but I'm not discounting another snowstorm next week to re-freshen the snow pack.  March is setting the stage for yet another record breaking month for cold and snow.

[East Dubzz]

Well, if 20s keeps feeling as amazing as it did today, bring on the cold and snow But seriously, now that the very brutal cold is over, I'm alright with cold and more snow, might as well keep it going!

[Tom]

Interesting quote from LOT mentioning how downtown Chicago temps have been held in the upper 20's from an ice breeze off the lake!  Sounds like something you would hear from the arctic regions.

[Money]

GFS looking nice for Wisconsin.

 

Looks stronger/nw of 12z.

[tim the weatherman]

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago just said that in several weeks that our snow cover will be melted.

[Tom]

18z GFS...looks like it runs up the OV

[Money]

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago just said that in several weeks that our snow cover will be melted.

 

No crap.... it will be April

[Tom]

GFS has taken baby steps each run...looking better with phasing as well.

[Money]

18z GFS...looks like it runs up the OV

 

Goes from KS to STL then E into S. IN and Ohio

[Sciascia]

It's Geos & 24weatherman vs. the world here! Talk about cold & possible snow, and you're shot down while being told how warm it's gonna get.

 

Or is it just me that's feeling this way? I'd say we let everyone's opinions breathe and not say someone or something is wrong, whether it's showing cold/snow or warm/sun/rain.

[Tom]

JB has been saying on Wx Bell about how this storm has similarities to the Super Storm back on March 13, 1993.  He's not saying necessarily it will be such a large scale of a system but there are indications of this becoming a major storm.

 

BTW, this storm is hitting around March 13th as well...would be a crazy thing to see this storm repeat!

[BrianJK]

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago just said that in several weeks that our snow cover will be melted.

 

Did he mention anything about a possible 60 degree day in April?

[Iowawx]

JB has been saying on Wx Bell about how this storm has similarities to the Super Storm back on March 13, 1993. He's not saying necessarily it will be such a large scale of a system but there are indications of this becoming a major storm.

 

BTW, this storm is hitting around March 13th as well...would be a crazy thing to see this storm repeat!

That 1993 storm was a very impressive one. Only problem with this one is that the track is 300-500 miles too far southeast. It has to come northwest.

[Tom]

IowaWx, track this far out is not important.  We have seen dynamic systems blow up and trend NW hundreds of miles even 2-3 days out.  I like what I'm seeing though.

[Iowawx]

I do to tom, just hoping for a big NW shift. This better not be a storm where I get a dusting and Chicago gets destroyed.

[tim the weatherman]

with tomorrow and monday's temps that most of our snowpack will be gone.

[Tony]

with tomorrow and monday's temps that most of our snowpack will be gone.

Ok then.

[midwest buildit]

with tomorrow and monday's temps that most of our snowpack will be gone.

not a chance. Last warm up had the same temps with a lot of rain and it couldn't take down the snowpack. now that layer that was left is solid. It will take weeks in the sun at  temps around mid to upper 40's to melt that away.

 

ill ad that this is the case here, not sure what snowpack you have an hour south of here.

[East Dubzz]

We have a pretty solid snowpack around here, and this snow has a little more moisture to it on top of an ice layer, so it's gonna take a while to get rid of it. Even if we do lose some, I'm willing to bet we will see some more snow to add back onto it again. 

 

And right after I typed that, I just saw that Dubuque's official snow depth is 11"...yeah that's gonna take quite a while to get rid of..

[midwest buildit]

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago just said that in several weeks that our snow cover will be melted.

Is there any reason why you believe so much and post what a bunch of other people think. I could care less what channel 5, 7 and 9 say. Each has there own bias as to what they want to happen vs what can happen. And the weather channel? When did they start forecasting weather again?  noaa has some good forecasters, but they provide a ton of information. And the better ones will talk about more than one solution in there diso's. So you cant hang on every forecast they give either.

[abhidupage]

with tomorrow and monday's temps that most of our snowpack will be gone.you

you honestly need to make up your mind you keep on saying winter will be over starting the 16th then say were going to get 2 more shots of artic air thats contradicting itself.  

[tim the weatherman]

from central to southren il has bare ground already and tom skilling just said that is causing our warmth in no il that will take a toll on our snowpack.

[abhidupage]

with tomorrow and monday's temps that most of our snowpack will be gone.

But I thought you said Mike Caplan said its going to take several weeks to melt our snowcover?! So in your books is 3 days several weeks?

[Tom]

Euro weeklies are in...and survey says....4 more weeks of winter!  The reality of it all is, this winter will go down in the books as one of the most long lasting and dominant winter's on record.  This winter never really had a major thaw and when it warmed, cold just kept on coming.  Obviously this month we will see transitions to warmth more often than not during Dec-Feb but the overall cold trend will out weigh any warm ups in our region.

[tim the weatherman]

But I thought you said Mike Caplan said its going to take several weeks to melt our snowcover?! So in your books is 3 days several weeks?

ignore it

[midwest buildit]

the ground in southern illinois doesnt look bare to me

 

http://i.imgur.com/P1lSZvS.jpg

[FiNsTa]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_850_temp_168.gif

lol

[tbone8]

 

todays sat pic

[East Dubzz]

DVN also said well below normal by late next week and a clipper pattern. And on marches this winter!

[Geos]

i think that this model really over did it.

 

Yeah that's off the deep end. That's as bad as the GFS showing below zero highs for the 15th a couple days ago.

 

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago just said that in several weeks that our snow cover will be melted.

 

Probably more like 3 at most. 

 

The snow was melting today at 24°. Noticed some grass showing again in Kenosha this evening. 

[Geos]

not a chance. Last warm up had the same temps with a lot of rain and it couldn't take down the snowpack. now that layer that was left is solid. It will take weeks in the sun at  temps around mid to upper 40's to melt that away.

 

ill ad that this is the case here, not sure what snowpack you have an hour south of here.

 

Sun, 40s in March is like the equivalent of 50s, especially if the dewpoints are above freezing. A week of that and piles would be the only things left. (...Yeah above freezing dewpoints with sun and wind is what really does snow pack in for- even more than rain)

 

FYI: That map image was taken at 12am today.

[Sleather]

Yeah that's off the deep end. That's as bad as the GFS showing below zero highs for the 15th a couple days ago.

 

 

Probably more like 3 at most. 

 

The snow was melting today at 24°. Noticed some grass showing again in Kenosha this evening. 

Probably be a while before my yard melts.. I've still got lots of 3 and 4' deep spots.

[East Dubzz]

Been pretty dead in here tonight... So just to get some convo started....

 

Cold or warm weather ahead?