May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

So far this quarter we have been learning about electric charge/fields. Point charges, field vectors, capacitors, electric flux, Gaussian geometry, etc. It's been extremely fascinating but also challenging.

 

I am currently on part III of a three quarter sequence, so almost done. Next test will be about magnetism/electromagnetism and the third will be on optics, from what I can tell.

Way to go, man. Keep it going all the way into particle physics/QM and you'll learn some really spooky stuff.

[Phil]

With the slow but steady uptick in warmth regarding climate (call it what you will) what if this last winter was our modern *grand daddy* cold of the next decade and we will look back in 2030 wondering what it will take to get a Dec 2016 around here?

I'm not worried about that at all.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know if I like it. Makes it a lot harder to see what's going on upstream of us, in the GOA/North Pacific.

 

They have Europe divided into like four or five maps though. Even Africa has a north and a south map. It would have been awesome if they had made a western US/North Pacific map. Must be all the overseas goodwill toward us lately that had them rethink that. Just make one map for us and call it 'Murica.

I agree.

[stuffradio]

I'm at .81" of rain today, over 1" of rain this month so far. Average is between 5 and 6" for May.

[TT-SEA]

70 here now with a dewpoint of 61.    

[Phil]

Most of the model guidance, including the EPS/GEFS, is starting to deepen the GOA trough/UV200 jet again during the extended range, underneath the westward retrograding anticyclone. The entire west coast from CA to WA looks to remain wetter than average in the long run, at this point.

 

I have to say, this has been an amazingly persistent pattern since last autumn, and while it was more common back in the 19th century to see this strong, equatorward-retracted NPAC jet, it has never occurred before in the post-1998 era, and the only recent analogs to it are volcanic years. Heck, even those are 20+ years old.

 

Also, now with the MJO wave likely to circle back to the Indo/western IPWP area, I don't see how this pattern breaks anytime soon (as a background state).

[TT-SEA]

Screw it... got all the patio furniture out today.   Will just have to play flip-the-cushions-up game forever as it will not actually stop raining.

 

[GHweatherChris]

70 here now with a dewpoint of 61.

Same here, glad I am off today to enjoy it, enjoying a beverage on the patio while taking a break from resurrecting our hot tub.

[BLI snowman]

Screw it... got all the patio furniture out today.   Will just have to play flip-the-cushions-up game forever as it will not actually stop raining.

 

 

 

 

The indignity!

[DareDuck]

The indignity!

The struggle is real.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 74 at PDX.

 

72 here.   

[Front Ranger]

Most of the model guidance, including the EPS/GEFS, is starting to deepen the GOA trough/UV200 jet again during the extended range, underneath the westward retrograding anticyclone. The entire west coast from CA to WA looks to remain wetter than average in the long run, at this point.

 

I have to say, this has been an amazingly persistent pattern since last autumn, and while it was more common back in the 19th century to see this strong, equatorward-retracted NPAC jet, it has never occurred before in the post-1998 era, and the only recent analogs to it are volcanic years. Heck, even those are 20+ years old.

 

Also, now with the MJO wave likely to circle back to the Indo/western IPWP area, I don't see how this pattern breaks anytime soon (as a background state).

 

Thankfully, that late April/early May west coast ridge is giving everyone a nice, extended break. 

[Front Ranger]

Screw it... got all the patio furniture out today.   Will just have to play flip-the-cushions-up game forever as it will not actually stop raining.

 

 

Fortune favors the bold!

[TT-SEA]

Fortune favors the bold!

 

Exactly.

 

At least we can enjoy the patio during the 45-minute breaks in the rain now.  

[stuffradio]

Thankfully, that late April/early May west coast ridge is giving everyone a nice, extended break. 

Yes! It gave me a nice almost 1 inches of rain break from the rain.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 here now... pretty impressive for a day that was gloomy and drizzly until after 10 a.m.

[Guest Sounder]

It's so muggy today!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest Sounder]

Screw it... got all the patio furniture out today.   Will just have to play flip-the-cushions-up game forever as it will not actually stop raining.

 

I really wanted my vanilla latte to be hot today but it was just too warm this morning for hot coffee and I had to order it iced, UGH

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 71... first 70 of the year.

 

PDX up to 77.

 

Poor BLI... stuck at 58 with a north wind and clouds.

[Deweydog]

Dew points falling through the 80's here.

[GHweatherChris]

74 here, so awesome!!

[Trainwreck]

I may have to water the lawn today. I don't want to burn it though. Decisions decisions.

[Front Ranger]

Up to 75 here now... pretty impressive for a day that was gloomy and drizzly until after 10 a.m.

 

Yet another gorgeous spring afternoon in Seattle.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yet another gorgeous spring afternoon in Seattle.

 

Screenshot_2.png

Lucky bastards! Its actually warmer here today.

[Front Ranger]

SEA up to 71... first 70 of the year.

 

PDX up to 77.

 

Poor BLI... stuck at 58 with a north wind and clouds.

 

They've had more sun and dry weather than everyone else to this point, though.

[Phil]

Thankfully, that late April/early May west coast ridge is giving everyone a nice, extended break.

It technically is a longwave ridge.

[Dave]

The 2:54 obs reported 76/65 in Eugene.  That's pretty muggy for Eugene standards.

[Phil]

Looking at the analogs 1951, 1980, 1983, 1993, and 1995, the upcoming pattern is captured quite well, with the deep -NAO for the month of May showing up clearly and concisely:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D4DA0A65-0305-4D69-813C-C57EED56E36E_zpsnpyxr64i.png

 

What do these years imply for JJA? It places the deepest NH 500mb trough over the NW USA.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7E3EEFD5-A16B-4F72-B407-46AB5D2FB20A_zpsf1qfgbpm.png

 

Just to check for homogeneity, let's hindcast March and April with these years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8F7972EE-5CE1-4004-B1A9-3C4EFC3F5008_zpsfmbwxkiz.png

 

Captures the strong NPAC jet and Indo-Eurasian forcing, but the AO was much more positive during 2017. So we'll have to watch that one:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FCFDDDB4-421C-41C2-85B4-7E62194CE700_zps277ggutn.png

[Front Ranger]

Tim's summer hopes.

 

[TT-SEA]

79 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's summer hopes.

 

 

1951 and 1995 were spectacular summers.   There is still hope!  

[Phil]

Tim's summer hopes.

 

More like this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&noapp=1&v=6yw8uDdrNU8

[Jbolin]

Don't you love how everyone rushes out to help.

Yep but in all fairness this plane skidded roughly 1/4 mile or more after crashing onto Harbour Pointe Blvd. South of this intersection on Mukilteo Speedway and HPB

[GHweatherChris]

Got to 77 here, perfection, gonna be a fun night grilling and relaxing by the campfire!!

[TT-SEA]

81 at PDX on the hour.   Breaking through all of the barriers today.   

 

SEA had a high of 73 so far.  

 

77 here for a high.  

[Jesse]

81 at PDX on the hour. Breaking through all of the barriers today.

 

SEA had a high of 73 so far.

 

77 here for a high.

80 has looked like a lock for PDX for the last 4-5 days.

[Front Ranger]

81 at PDX on the hour.   Breaking through all of the barriers today.   

 

SEA had a high of 73 so far.  

 

77 here for a high.  

 

BFI hit 76. OLM 77.

[BLI snowman]

81 at PDX on the hour. Breaking through all of the barriers today.

 

SEA had a high of 73 so far.

 

77 here for a high.

Yeah, kinda neat to have the first 70+ day at PDX also be the first 80+.

 

Tomorrow will hit 80+ there too, so PDX will probably go the furthest into the year without a 70-79 degree day on record.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, kinda neat to have the first 70+ day at PDX also be the first 80+.

 

Tomorrow will hit 80+ there too, so PDX will probably go the furthest into the year without a 70-79 degree day on record.

That is sort of interesting.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, kinda neat to have the first 70+ day at PDX also be the first 80+.

 

Tomorrow will hit 80+ there too, so PDX will probably go the furthest into the year without a 70-79 degree day on record.

 

80+ is far from a lock for PDX tomorrow, though. All depends on when clouds move in. NWS going with 78 right now.

 

Decent chance today was the warmest of the week for PDX, and tomorrow probably will be for OLM north.