PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When I get my house built over there I'm going to pick 1 weekend a year in the winter and invite the forum to come up and play in the snow and spend the night if they wish. Something like that had always been my plan. 

Honestly, a rager at your place with all of us would be pretty great. A few kegs, some shots, hopefully somebody can bring some proper MDMA. Make it like a frat party.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Bet on Nevada to cover the +7.5 at Oregon tonight if you use an offshore book. I don't bet on college hoops because I feel that it's against the spirit of what I do.

Other college sports like college football tho...I made some $ for the bankroll this season.

Washington sucks. They are happy to hold a monopoly on gambling (lotto) and keep proper betting platforms illegal. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Washington sucks. They are happy to hold a monopoly on gambling (lotto) and keep proper betting platforms illegal. 

All the more reason to get Coinbase and use Bovada.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Washington sucks. They are happy to hold a monopoly on gambling (lotto) and keep proper betting platforms illegal. 

You need machines in the bars there though.  Those pull tab things are as lame as it gets.

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One note on the GFS... it almost always runs too cold and in marginal situations it has massive errors in snow totals.   Nothing has changed since the upgrade.   

But that is not an issue when the situation is not marginal.    So assuming its always wrong with snow totals is probably incorrect.   

True, every 5 to 7°F temp GFS showed at my coordinates for the most recent cold spell verified 8 to 10 days later at 25 to 27°F. So maybe we can default +20° to the what GFS shows for arctic outflow temps. 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, selkirks said:

Facts:

• ECMWF is a superior model to GFS overall
• GFS has some serious flaws, which weren't fixed by the last update, particularly for the PNW with our topography and microclimates
• Precip type is always going to be hard to forecast in our region, with any model.
• More than five days out we should be trusting the ensembles more than the operationals anyway
• We *could* possibly be seeing some model improvement a week out
• Model riding isn't healthy

These points kind of ignore we are seeing improvement on everything today, and some of the improvement only a few days out.  Not getting the skepticism from people east of the Cascades who have already had a super cold winter.  We are in a cold groove right now.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

True, every 5 to 7°F temp GFS showed at my coordinates for the most recent cold spell verified 8 to 10 days later at 25 to 27°F. So maybe we can default +20° to the what GFS shows for arctic outflow temps. 

I actually looks at 500mb, surface pressure maps, and 850mb temp maps more than anything.  What it's showing on the 18z is very solid.  The numbers it spits out for temps and snowfall are a totally different thing than the raw numbers being shown.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

We need to get W7ENK to inject some cold hard truth back into this forum.

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS definitely seems to be a decisive step away from the EPS progression. 00z runs will (As always) determine the winner!!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

True, every 5 to 7°F temp GFS showed at my coordinates for the most recent cold spell verified 8 to 10 days later at 25 to 27°F. So maybe we can default +20° to the what GFS shows for arctic outflow temps. 

You'll get burned if you always generalize like this.  You have to take a case by case basis.

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

All the more reason to get Coinbase and use Bovada.

Bovado? I have Coinbase 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually looks at 500mb, surface pressure maps, and 850mb temp maps more than anything.  What it's showing on the 18z is very solid.  The numbers it spits out for temps and snowfall are a totally different thing than the raw numbers being shown.

It was way too aggressive at the 850mb and 925mb level for this past week as well.  It was about 8 degrees too cold for today at the 925mb level just a couple days ago.    Its basically a given.    You seem to know all this in the summer when it runs warm but forget it all during the winter.   

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18z GEFS definitely seems to be a decisive step away from the EPS progression. 00z runs will (As always) determine the winner!!

The 18z EPS might be kind of interesting to see if it picks up on any of the near term changes shown on the 18z GFS and 18z ICON.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Brennan said:

To add to the global warming, warming NW winters talk... I crunched some data a month or two back, and I believe I posted about it on here regarding Mt Baker snowfall by the decade. Mt Baker's decadal snowfall average when measured from 1960-1970, 1971-1980, 1981-1990 etc, has increased over the past decade. The volume of "BIG WINTERS" has increased over the past decade as well. 

Between 2010-2020 MT BAKER  had 4 winters with 805+" of snow. 
Between 2000-2010 MT BAKER had 0 winters with 805+" of snow. 
Between 1990-2000 MT BAKER had 1 winters with 805+" of snow. 
Between 1980-1990 MT BAKER had 1 winters with 805+" of snow. 
Between 1970-1980 MT BAKER had 4 winters with 805+" of snow. (All between 70-74)... 70-71 and 71-72 both had over 1,000". 

I used 805" as the bench mark because all of the winters in the most previous decade with over 805" of snow came in significantly higher than that except one, and the same goes for the 1970-1980 period as well. All 805+" winters were significantly higher than that. Whereas the 2000-2010 period had only 3 winters above 660" of snow, with 2 just reaching 800". 

Based on these numbers, i'd definitely say our winters are or have reverted back to  more pre WARM PHASE PDO type winters.

Or the mean winter jet position is migrating north and hitting that area more consistently, as opposed to a more suppressed jet leaving the northern mountains relatively drier and colder.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It was way too aggressive at the 850mb and 925mb level for this past week as well.   Its basically a given.    You seem to know all this in the summer when it runs warm but forget it all during the winter.   

There is simply no denying what it showed on the 18z is a great pattern though.  People are acting like this year is business as usual and most certainly is not.  A lot of cold and snowy weather has already verified.

[Gradient Keeper]

Can we believe the GEFS, even a little? For what its worth the 18z GEFS improved substantially holds the ridge and cold trough over us longer. Day 11.5 (4-run trend)

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

We need to get W7ENK to inject some cold hard truth back into this forum.

Oh god you’re part of this crowd. I should have guessed.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And it showed it snowing here right up to the last minute when almost all othrt models showed just rain. It snowed here for about 6 hrs but only added up to 1/2 inch. 3 Miles from here it snowed 2.5 inches.

Just best to give up on the doubters.  They will see soon enough.  It's the same sheit every time.  Same thing last year before the great stuff in December.

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was way too aggressive at the 850mb and 925mb level for this past week as well.   Its basically a given.    You seem to know all this in the summer when it runs warm but forget it all during the winter.   

I agree with 850Ts also being overdone in parallel with the 2M temps. It's not a problem specific to the 2Ms. It's a problem overdoing the cold all the way up the column. 850Ts is what I look at first and most to filter out the noise. 

In terms of what snow_wizard does in summer and winter, I have no idea. But I always admire his optimism that cold can and will prevail in this maritime climate no matter what the last model run shows. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There is simply no denying what it showed on the 18z is a great pattern though.  People are acting like this year is business as usual and most certainly is not.  A lot of cold and snowy weather has already verified.

Definitely a great pattern at the 500mb level.    It would bring cold and snow.

[Requiem]

Interesting batch of newer folks...

[lowlandsnow]

Very cold on 18z GEFS for so far out

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Can we believe the GEFS, even a little? For what its worth the 18z GEFS improved substantially holds the ridge and cold trough over us longer. Day 11.5 (4-run trend)

Trends are great today.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Very cold on 18z GEFS for so far out

Didn't you hear it's a sheit run though? 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely a great pattern at the 500mb level.    It would bring cold and snow.

That's the thing I'm really waiting to see on the upgrade.  How good it does with 500mb.

[Doinko]

What does the 500mb pattern for the GEFS control run look like? I know there's really no point in looking at it but it looks very cold in terms of 850mb temps.

[Cold Snap]

Lol I literally can’t keep up with the posts since there’s so many. Anytime I flip to the next page and it refreshes, there’s another page ready for me to read.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Lol I literally can’t keep up with the posts since there’s so many. Anytime I flip to the next page and it refreshes, there’s another page ready for me to read.

Maybe we'll get over 300 again?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I agree with 850Ts also being overdone in parallel with the 2M temps. It's not a problem specific to the 2Ms. It's a problem overdoing the cold all the way up the column. 850Ts is what I look at first and most to filter out the noise. 

In terms of what snow_wizard does in summer and winter, I have no idea. But I always admire his optimism that cold can and will prevail in this maritime climate no matter what the last model run shows. 

A lot of good stuff has verified in recent winters.  Every single one of them had wringing of hands and doubters beforehand.

As an interesting aside.  I only tell my wife to tell others when I'm the most sure and they think I'm a bloody genius because I'm almost always right.  I'm almost to the point of telling her to pull the trigger on this one.

[Terreboner]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh god you’re part of this crowd. I should have guessed.

The MDC?  Milwaukie Dome Crowd? LOL

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Lol I literally can’t keep up with the posts since there’s so many. Anytime I flip to the next page and it refreshes, there’s another page ready for me to read.

Sure sign something is brewing!

[Gradient Keeper]

850s quite a bit colder Day 6-12

18z GEFS

12z GEFS

[MossMan]

Changed the generator engine oil today since it ran for half of November it seemed like. I’m ready for the next round of awesomely crazy weather!! Let’s go!! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of good stuff has verified in recent winters.  Every single one of them had wringing of hands and doubters beforehand.

As an interesting aside.  I only tell my wife to tell others when I'm the most sure and they think I'm a bloody genius because I'm almost always right.  I'm almost to the point of telling her to pull the trigger on this one.

 I think you forget all the stuff that just disappears and never verifies.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Sure sign something is brewing!

Probably because everyone is getting drunk, lol.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the 500mb pattern for the GEFS control run look like? I know there's really no point in looking at it but it looks very cold in terms of 850mb temps.

That isn't available on Weatherbell.  -15 850s would indicate a great pattern though.

[Gradient Keeper]

I am probably putting too much faith in the GEFS....

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 I think you forget all the stuff that just disappears and never verifies.

Hard to forget the total cave to EPS this November at like only 5 days out

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 I think you forget all the stuff that just disappears and never verifies.

Yeah....but they usually don't go this far.  I still remember the huge busts of course.

[OysterPrintout]

I already spilled the beans to my neighbor's wife after the 18z came out and then her husband started asking all these stupid questions like what is the 18z what are you doing in my house why are you talking to my wife