Phil Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 New EPS weeklies also show the retrogression, but follow it up with another extended jet/coastal trough pattern, very similar to the current regime. Seems to be the major theme of this year, which actually makes me semi-curious about what the EPO will do under this winter's waveguide given -QBO boundary conditions. If we do return to the -ENSO with WPAC subsidence, then that's a +EPO/hose job catastrophe barring a massive -AO/strat attack. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 18z GFS is much closer to solving the retrogression. Let's see if it actually gets there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Pushing 70F here again today under sunny skies. Another nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 18z GFS is much closer to solving the retrogression. Let's see if it actually gets there.It does solve it, just a few days too slow and damp with the entire process (which begins day 8/9). Should occur between June 20th and 25th given the rate of AAM removal, but likely on the earlier side of that range, in my opinion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 It does solve it, just a few days too slow and damp with the entire process (which begins day 8/9). Should occur between June 20th and 25th given the rate of AAM removal, but likely on the earlier side of that range, in my opinion. Are you talking about a trough swinging through around 6/25 in 13 days? If there is a warm spell next week then I don't even have to look at the models to know a trough will be coming through the next weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Are you talking about a trough swinging through around 6/25 in 13 days? If there is a warm spell next week then I don't even have to look at the models to know a trough will be coming through the next weekend. I'm talking about the pattern progression. In this case, a full retrogression of the ridge offshore into a more -PNA/western trough style circulation as opposed to a extended jet/GOA vortex type circulation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Pushing 70F here again today under sunny skies. Another nice day.Cloudy all day, but not raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 I'm talking about the pattern progression. In this case, a full retrogression of the ridge offshore into a more -PNA/western trough style circulation as opposed to a extended jet/GOA vortex type circulation. Ahhh. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Pushing 70F here again today under sunny skies. Another nice day. Got up to about 70F here today but there's a strong marine push coming in this evening, things really cooled down in a hurry. Has it hit your area yet, or are you normally more sheltered from marine pushes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 I guess the Orygun vs Warshington discussion died, but I just want to add that approaching Wallowas reminds me of Montana, and definitely puts Eastern OR above it's counterpart in WA for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 High of only 59 today with a lot of drizzle around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 I like the 00Z GFS for the weekend... nice improvement over the already improved 12Z run. Temperature anomaly map for Sunday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061300/gfs_T2ma_us_25.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 But the 00Z GFS is also very different for early next week... definitely not a massive heat wave on that run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 D*mn this would be REALLY bad day... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYhRVdd47XQ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 But the 00Z GFS is also very different for early next week... definitely not a massive heat wave on that run.Poor model cant figure out how to retrograde the ridge, so it just disintegrates it and reforms a new one offshore. Classic GFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Retrogression or bust. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 The corn I planted today will enjoy the rain. I already have one row growing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Got up to about 70F here today but there's a strong marine push coming in this evening, things really cooled down in a hurry. Has it hit your area yet, or are you normally more sheltered from marine pushes?West wind kicked up around 4pm and things cooled off quickly after about 6pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 SEA maxed at 64*F today, which was actually colder than the ECMWF had forecasted by two degrees. So perhaps streamflow aloft is indeed a factor there, rather than some mysterious warm bias unique to SEA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Hit 71F here this afternoon. Currently 51F which is the low for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 SEA maxed at 64*F today, which was actually colder than the ECMWF had forecasted. So perhaps streamflow aloft is indeed a factor there, rather than some mysterious warm bias unique to just SEA. I was going to mention that... it came down to placement of the thickest cloud cover which hung on over SEA. I assure you that this issue is not specifically related to the station itself. Its generally too cool for all of King County for sure and it appears to be all of the Puget Sound region. Keep watching. It will run too cool on 80% or more of the days. It happens on solid onshore flow days all the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 I was going to mention that... it came down to placement of the thickest cloud cover which hung on over SEA. I assure you that this issue is not specifically related to the station itself. Its generally too cool for all of King County for sure and it appears to be all of the Puget Sound region. Keep watching. It will run too cool on 80% or more of the days.Don't worry, I'm watching. Seems the departures were larger down south compared to areas around Puget Sound. PDX finished with a -13 departure on the high. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 00Z ECMWF shows that SEA does not get above 62 for the rest of the work week (61, 60, 59, 62). Then absolutely bakes at 67 and 70 over the weekend! <_> Lets check back on these results. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Assuming the modeled pattern remains static. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 ECMWF shows total sunshine and 70 at SEA on Sunday: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061300/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_7.png I am willing to bet $500 (and I will pay up) that SEA does not have high below 75 on Sunday. I will also bet SEA gets above 62 before Saturday afternoon which is what the 00Z ECMWF shows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Model biases don't just appear and disappear on a whim. If they're not statistically identifiable, they're not biases. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Don't worry, I'm watching. Seems the departures were larger down south compared to areas around Puget Sound. PDX finished with a -13 departure on the high.Wow, it was around +2 here today on the northern edge of the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Model biases don't just appear and disappear on a whim. If they're not statistically identifiable, they're not biases.Statistically... I am sure the ECMWF is too cool on the vast majority of the days in the warm season for SEA and King County. Not all... but the vast majority. Call it what you want. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Wow, it was around +2 here today on the northern edge of the region.This might explain it. ECMWF initialized with a warm pocket of 850s over southern BC into extreme northern WA. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16EBD032-3D62-4A4C-BD7D-5A70017E3E5C_zpspuwziebt.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 This might explain it. ECMWF initialized with a warm pocket of 850s over southern BC into extreme northern WA. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/16EBD032-3D62-4A4C-BD7D-5A70017E3E5C_zpspuwziebt.png It was because of the marine layer configuration... it was sunny up there most of the day and very gloomy elsewhere. Very typical in a set up like this with a ULL to the east... sunny up there and the clouds banked against the mountains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Wow, it was around +2 here today on the northern edge of the region. Your climate is getting pretty warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 The marine layer is reflected in the thermals, though. Sensible heat flux is reduced above an inversion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 The marine layer is reflected in the thermals, though. Sensible heat flux is reduced above cloud cover. Its definitely reflected in the 850mb temps. I have seen it hundreds of times with a cool pool over the lowlands of WA and OR surrounded by warm 850mb temps in every direction. But its often a reflection of the topography and not random. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Quarter inch of rain this morning Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Only 57 here yesterday. Coolest high of the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 PDX is down to average for the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 PDX is down to average for the month.Pretty crazy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Pretty crazy.One for the ages so far. Pretty enjoyable overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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