June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

And I am still willing to bet that SEA will have a high of 75 or warmer on Sunday... any takers?

[Phil]

LGA hit 101*F today. Amazing considering they're right on the water and it's only June. If confirmed, it ties the early season 100+ record, which was set back in 1952.

[Jesse]

LGA hit 101*F today. Amazing considering they're right on the water and it's only June. If confirmed, it ties the early season 100+ record, which was set back in 1952.

Where is LGA?

[BLI snowman]

Hey, I've actually recently noticed that the computer models are sometimes off. Anyone else had this problem?

[Jesse]

Hey, I've actually recently noticed that the computer models are sometimes off. Anyone else had this problem?

Only when they run too cool. : /

[BLI snowman]

Where is LGA?

 

LaGuardia

[Phil]

Only when they run too cool. : /

If these trends continue, Tim's 75+ Sunday call for SEA might be in trouble.

 

(Just kidding, Tim).

[Jesse]

LaGuardia

Impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Only when they run too cool. : /

 

You think I am making this up?   

 

Its a notable weakness of the ECMWF in the Puget Sound region.   It does awesome on cloud cover and precip and very good on temps outside of the warm season.

 

Phil has been citing the ECMWF output for SEA... I say add 3-5 degrees to pretty much every day and you will have a good forecast.  

[TT-SEA]

If these trends continue, Tim's 75+ Sunday call for SEA might be in trouble.

 

(Just kidding, Tim).

 

75 is very safe bet.  

[Phil]

75 is very safe bet.

Assuming the modeled pattern remains static.

 

The 18z GFS only shows one warmer than average afternoon now, and it's Sunday. At least until the clown range after truncation. The ridge starts retrograding after just 36hrs.

[Jesse]

You think I am making this up?

 

Its a notable weakness of the ECMWF in the Puget Sound region. It does awesome on cloud cover and precip and very good on temps outside of the warm season.

 

Phil has been citing the ECMWF output for SEA... I say add 3-5 degrees to pretty much every day and you will have a good forecast.

Nobody thinks you are making it up (at least I don't). I don't see any reason to mention it 8 times a day though.

[Jesse]

Remember Tim, I was the one who pointed out that the ECMWF output for PDX looked too cool a few weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

Nobody thinks you are making it up (at least I don't). I don't see any reason to mention it 8 times a day though.

 

We are tracking it... something to debate.  

[TT-SEA]

In my universe, 61 means sixty one.

 

 

 

64 at SEA now.     

[luvssnow_spokane]

Fingers crossed for a dry 4th of July!! 

[Trainwreck]

LaGuardia

No one cares about east coast except news outlets.

[Phil]

No one cares about east coast except news outlets.

More interesting weather = more headlines.

 

(Trolling).

[Phil]

Remember Tim, I was the one who pointed out that the ECMWF output for PDX looked too cool a few weeks ago.

Was it actually too cool, though? PDX ran a -11 departure on the high today, after a -13 yesterday. Today's -6 (overall) will drop them to a negative anomaly for the month, with more to come.

[Phil]

SEA WFO topped out at 63*F today, which is only two degrees warmer than the ECMWF forecast of 61*F.

 

So, basically within the margin of error. I don't yet see evidence for a cold bias inherent to the model, as far as radiative transfer is concerned. In SeaTac's case, it seems to be a product of local microclimatic effects and/or anthropogenic contamination(s) that vary in their degree of influence, depending on wind direction, surface boundary layer moisture, and/or cloudiness/solar radiation.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Showed 60 on the 12Z operational run through 5 p.m... but I did see it has 61 after 5 p.m.  

 

 

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that is has a Puget Sound area cool bias.   I watch it every single day for this area.   Being too cool on about 80% of the days is some kind of weakness.  

 

Hit 68F up here today with persistent sun, so much for the marine layer.

[Front Ranger]

SEA WFO topped out at 63*F today, which is only two degrees warmer than the ECMWF forecast of 61*F.

 

So, basically within the margin of error. I don't yet see evidence for a cold bias inherent to the model, as far as radiative transfer is concerned. In SeaTac's case, it seems to be a product of local microclimatic effects and/or anthropogenic contamination(s) that vary in their degree of influence, depending on wind direction, surface boundary layer moisture, and/or cloudiness/solar radiation.

Days with appreciable sun it definitely runs cool. Very consistent.

 

Not sure why you're stubbornly fighting Tim on this. He follows these things closely.

[Phil]

Days with appreciable sun it definitely runs cool. Very consistent.

 

Not sure why you're stubbornly fighting Tim on this. He follows these things closely.

Please read more carefully. I'm saying it's not a "model bias".

 

It does just fine in most places on sunny days, including OLM and PDX. The divergence is local to SEA, probably for the reasons I've outlined previously (microclimatic effects and anthropogenic contamination(s)).

[Front Ranger]

Please read more carefully. I'm saying it's not a "model bias". It does just fine in most places on sunny days, including OLM and PDX.

 

The divergence is local to SEA, probably for the reasons I've outlined previously.

 

Except it's not. The last two days were mostly cloudy, which is why it was closer everywhere.

 

I agree that it's probably most pronounced at SEA much of the time, but it also runs cool for most of western WA during the warm season, as Tim says. Which makes sense, since the warm season has a lot more sun.

[Phil]

Except it's not. The last two days were mostly cloudy, which is why it was closer everywhere.

 

I agree that it's probably most pronounced at SEA much of the time, but it also runs cool for most of western WA during the warm season, as Tim says. Which makes sense, since the warm season has a lot more sun.

The ECMWF ran warm yesterday because it underestimated the degree of saturation within the lower boundary layer. Today it overestimated it. Both errors were/are related to local/regional streamflow and differential surface heating gradients.

 

There is no "warm bias" inherent to the model as far as its radiative/latent heat transfer physics are concerned. Read the verification paper on the latest version, which was published months ago. It scores the highest of all models as far as sfcT is concerned, both diurnally and overall.

 

I may not know much of anything about PNW microclimates, but I think I know a model bias when I see one. This is not a model bias, as far as I can tell. It's a typical, localized, sub-domainal error that can run both ways depending on the conditional boundary state, and likely occurs for reasons of spatial resolution and perhaps some convective parameterizations.

[Trainwreck]

The ECMWF ran warm yesterday because it underestimated the degree of saturation within the lower boundary layer. Today it overestimated it. Both errors were/are related to local/regional streamflow and differential surface heating gradients.

 

There is no "warm bias" inherent to the model as far as its radiative/latent heat transfer physics are concerned. Read the verification paper on the latest version, which was published months ago. It scores the highest of all models as far as sfcT is concerned, both diurnally and overall.

 

I may not know much of anything about PNW microclimates, but I think I know a model bias when I see one. This is not a model bias, as far as I can tell. It's a typical, localized, sub-domainal error that can run both ways depending on the conditional boundary state, and likely occurs for reasons of spatial resolution and perhaps some convective parameterizations.

Strange why you care so much 2700 miles away. Baffling really.

[Phil]

Strange why you care so much 2700 miles away. Baffling really.

How is it strange, exactly? Weather and climate are globally encompassing by their very nature. They're not comfined to my backyard.

 

I also have lots of family in Seattle (where I will be visiting this summer) so I follow the weather there more closely than some other areas anyway.

[Phil]

But hey, if I'm not wanted here I'll happily retreat to my own subforum and be done with it. No biggie.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF ran warm yesterday because it underestimated the degree of saturation within the lower boundary layer. Today it overestimated it. Both errors were/are related to local/regional streamflow and differential surface heating gradients.

 

There is no "warm bias" inherent to the model as far as its radiative/latent heat transfer physics are concerned. Read the verification paper on the latest version, which was published months ago. It scores the highest of all models as far as sfcT is concerned, both diurnally and overall.

 

I may not know much of anything about PNW microclimates, but I think I know a model bias when I see one. This is not a model bias, as far as I can tell. It's a typical, localized, sub-domainal error that can run both ways depending on the conditional boundary state, and likely occurs for reasons of spatial resolution and perhaps some convective parameterizations.

 

WHATEVER dude.

 

Start tracking it every single day.   I have... but just did not write it down.   It will be too cool at least 80% of the time at SEA in the warm season.   And all of King County.     And it seems for most of the Puget Sound region.

 

It can get every single parameter correct and it will be too cool by 3-5 degrees on most days.   Warm spells or cold spells.   

 

This morning it showed 61 for a high... actual high was 65.   

 

GFS MOS showed 65.   

 

Tomorrow the ECMWF shows 60 for a high at SEA.   GFS MOS shows 70.    Do want to bet that 60 is going to be at least 3-5 degrees too cool??   

[Phil]

WHATEVER dude.

 

Start tracking it every single day. I have... but just did not write it down. It will be too cool at least 80% of the time at SEA. And all of King County. And it seems for most of the Puget Sound region.

 

It can get every single parameter correct and it will be too cool by 3-5 degrees in most cases.

 

This morning it showed 61 for a high... actual high was 65.

 

GFS MOS showed 65.

 

Tomorrow the ECMWF shows 60 for a high at SEA. GFS MOS shows 70. Do want to bet that 60 is going to be at least 3-5 degrees too cool??

FWIW, the WxBell meteogram is actually interpolated from the raw ECMWF grids for surface thermals, which technically run on a 2km spatial resolution, IIRC. In other words, the meteogram isn't actually point-located to Sea-Tac.

 

There was also quite a bit of spread in temperatures across the Seattle metro area today, from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. See the various MESONET/ASOS maps or even the Wunderground maps (if you remove the outliers).

 

If the 00z ECMWF holds serve at 60*F, then we'll have to look at the soundings and figure out why it's doing so. Likewise for the GFS MOS, if it holds at 70*F.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the WxBell meteogram is actually interpolated from the raw ECMWF grids for surface thermals, which technically run on a 2km spatial resolution, IIRC. In other words, the meteogram isn't actually point-located to Sea-Tac.

 

There was also quite a bit of spread in temperatures across the Seattle metro area today, from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. See the MESONET maps or even the Wunderground maps.

 

If the 00z ECMWF holds serve at 60*F, then we'll have to look st the soundings and figure out why it's doing so. Likewise for the GFS MOS.

 

Showed 60 for the last several runs for tomorrow.     

 

I know that I can add 3-5 degrees and get a good forecast for this area (King County) in most cases.  You can analyze it six ways to Sunday and that will not change.    It is what it is.  

 

And it will happen again tomorrow.   And for sure over the weekend.   Probably 5-8 degrees too cool on those days.  

[Deweydog]

But hey, if I'm not wanted here I'll happily retreat to my own subforum and be done with it. No biggie.

Okay... I'm leaving now guys.

 

I'm leaving now. Right now. I'm leaving. Here I go. I'm walking out the door.

 

No one try to stop me, my mind is made up. I AM OUT OF HERE. No changing my mind. This train has left the station. Don't waste your time trying to convince me otherwise. Goodbye forever.

 

I hope you all are free to pursue a life of religious fulfillment.

[Phil]

Showed 60 for the last several runs.

 

I know that I can add 3-5 degrees and get a good forecast for this area (King County) in most cases. You can analyze it six ways to Sunday and that will not change.

Except yesterday, right? Was that just a fluke?

 

Or, perhaps the (diurnal) persistence of lower boundary layer saturation varies depending on streamflow and upstream differential heating gradients, which would explain modest errors in cloud cover/thermals? Just think about it.

[Jesse]

Okay... I'm leaving now guys.

 

I'm leaving now. Right now. I'm leaving. Here I go. I'm walking out the door.

 

No one try to stop me, my mind is made up. I AM OUT OF HERE. No changing my mind. This train has left the station. Don't waste your time trying to convince me otherwise. Goodbye forever.

 

I hope you all are free to pursue a life of religious fulfillment.

If you literally left the forum forever after making this post, it would be like the ultimate in Andy Kauffman-esque performance art comedy.

 

You should totally do it. Die a legend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just rented out a room at my house for $400 for the eclipse.

[Jesse]

Just rented out a room at my house for $400 for the eclipse.

Kinky.

[Deweydog]

Just rented out a room at my house for $400 for the eclipse.

Don't impregnate them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Campsites still available.

[Deweydog]

I've seen it get darker during daylight hours before. They're called clouds.

[luminen]

Progged for 2" of rain on Thursday here...