June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

This one could be bump worthy in about a week.

 

No massive heat wave... Phil was right.  

[Jesse]

No massive heat wave... Phil was right.

That week went by fast!

[TT-SEA]

That week went by fast!

 

Trends are pretty clear... going towards what Phil expected.  

[Jesse]

Trends are pretty clear... going towards what Phil expected.

A well below average June across the entire region?

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS OP still pretty warm for a few days, but the ensembles have cooled down.

[Phil]

A well below average June across the entire region?

Did I actually say "well below" average?

 

Anyway, I'm glad to see the GFS has woken up.

[Front Ranger]

PDX is down to average for the month.

 

SEA: +1.6

BLI: +1.7

WFO Seattle: +1.8

OLM: +.5

 

Definitely been cooler relative to average further south over the past week. For the region as a whole, it's looking like the month will end up fairly close to normal, but of course a major heatwave or a period of prolonged troughing over the next couple weeks could still tilt it more decidedly one way or the other.

[Front Ranger]

Did I actually say "well below" average?

 

Anyway, I'm glad to see the GFS has woken up.

 

You definitely made some statements last month that sounded that way.

 

But you make a lot of statements. 

[Phil]

SEA: +1.6

BLI: +1.7

WFO Seattle: +1.8

OLM: +.5

 

Definitely been cooler relative to average further south over the past week. For the region as a whole, it's looking like the month will end up fairly close to normal, but of course a major heatwave or a period of prolonged troughing over the next couple weeks could still tilt it more decidedly one way or the other.

EUG: -0.8

PDX: 0.1

SLE: 0.1

Station of the gods: 0.5

 

I recall you saying you'd "judge me" based on SLE/OLM et al.

 

I think I'll pass with a decent grade.

[Jesse]

Did I actually say "well below" average?

 

Anyway, I'm glad to see the GFS has woken up.

#woke

 

You may have not used those exact words, but you said many things that implied as much.

[Phil]

#woke

#MASSIVEheatwave

[Front Ranger]

EUG: -0.8

PDX: 0.1

SLE: 0.1

Station of the gods: 0.5

 

I recall you saying you'd "judge me" based on SLE/OLM et al.

 

I think I'll pass with a decent grade.

 

As I said, it's been cooler further south. 

 

Ye shall be judged by the WRCC maps.

[Phil]

As I said, it's been cooler further south.

 

Ye shall be judged by the WRCC maps.

You know those are based on the extrapolation of preliminary data, right? I'm not saying they're wrong, but there are probably better ways to go about it.

 

I'd argue the PRISM maps are better than the WRCC ones.

[Phil]

Sitting at 98*F with a 70*F dewpoint. I don't want to hear Jesse complain about 60*F+ lows ever again.

[Deweydog]

Euro alert!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To quote Richard. {^~!]^ The cold is more South}€~!{*

[BLI snowman]

These marine layers are straight out of 2010.

[BLI snowman]

Sitting at 98*F with a 70*F dewpoint. I don't want to hear Jesse complain about 60*F+ lows ever again.

 

We haven't even had 65+ dewpoints the past couple summers. It's been remarkably arid. Definitely way overdue.

[Phil]

We haven't even had 65+ dewpoints the past couple summers. It's been remarkably arid. Definitely way overdue.

Man oh man, if I could afford a summer home up there...

[Deweydog]

Man oh man, if I could afford a summer home up there...

Lots of half acre view lots available in suburban Stampede Pass...

[Phil]

Lots of half acre view lots available in suburban Stampede Pass...

Bazinga!

[BLI snowman]

Lots of half acre view lots available in suburban Stampede Pass...

 

My cousin is renting a room this fall on the western side of Glacier Peak.

[Deweydog]

Bazinga!

You could get something downtown but you get less bang for your buck and UHI is rampant.

[Phil]

12z EPS drops another 2" of rain at SEA over the next 15 days.

 

There are two "clusters", but 35/51 members have over 2.5" of rain there thru d15, and 17 of those members have over 4".

[TT-SEA]

12z EPS drops another 2" of rain at SEA over the next 15 days.

 

There are two "clusters", but 35/51 members have over 2.5" of rain there thru d15, and 17 of those members have over 4".

 

Another?

 

There has only been rain on 3 days this month and SEA is running about 50% of normal for rainfall.  

[Phil]

FWIW, the EPS sort of reverses the temperature anomaly gradient, with southern zones running warmer/drier compared to northern zones, relative to the current pattern.

 

During the "warm spell" which lasts a few days, the EPS keeps onshore streamflow going over SEA (winds stay W/SW) but PDX sees four days of easterly winds.

[Phil]

Another?

 

There has only been rain on 3 days this month and SEA is running about 50% of normal for rainfall.

What? I meant "another", as in 2" more on top of what has already fallen.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that 2" had already fallen.

[TT-SEA]

What? I meant "another", as in 2" more on top of what has already fallen.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that 2" had already fallen.

 

It sounded like you were saying it has been a wet month and getting wetter.   

[Phil]

It sounded like you were saying it has been a wet month and getting wetter.

Well, that's not what I was saying.

 

June is approximately halfway over. If SEA is at 50% of normal rainfall, then it's been a fairly normal month in the rainfall department so far.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed a high of 60 at SEA today.    It was 62 at 2 p.m. and the marine layer is breaking up a little so it will likely get a little warmer.   Typical ECMWF.  

 

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF showed a high of 60 at SEA today. It was 62 at 2 p.m. and the marine layer is breaking up a little so it will likely go warmer. Typical ECMWF.

 

 

How many posts will you need to make about this until you feel satiated?

[Phil]

It showed a high of 61. If it's a few degrees off in either direction, that's within the margin of error on any day. Yesterday it was two degrees too warm.

 

#notabias

[Jesse]

Sitting at 98*F with a 70*F dewpoint. I don't want to hear Jesse complain about 60*F+ lows ever again.

Prepare to be disappointed then.

[stuffradio]

What? I meant "another", as in 2" more on top of what has already fallen.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that 2" had already fallen.

It's ok, you'd almost be right for me if you stated 2" had already fallen.

[TT-SEA]

It showed a high of 61. If it's a few degrees off, that's within the margin of error on any day.

 

#notabias

 

Showed 60 on the 12Z operational run through 5 p.m... but I did see it has 61 after 5 p.m.  

 

 

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that is has a Puget Sound area cool bias.   I watch it every single day for this area.   Being too cool on about 80% of the days is some kind of weakness.  

[Phil]

Prepare to be disappointed then.

Lol.

 

We successfully fried an egg on our driveway today. I'll post the video later, but it actually works.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows 60 at SEA tomorrow which seems quite low.   GFS MOS has 70.  For this area... the GFS MOS is much more reliable in the warm season.   

 

I am guessing 66 or 67 tomorrow.  

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF shows 60 at SEA tomorrow which seems quite low. GFS MOS has 70. For this area... the GFS MOS is much more reliable in the warm season.

 

I am guessing 66 or 67 tomorrow.

Double down!

 

My eyes aren't quite bleeding yet. Almost there.

[Phil]

Showed 60 on the 12Z operational run through 5 p.m... but I did see it has 61 after 5 p.m.

 

 

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that is has a Puget Sound area cool bias. I watch it every single day for this area. Being too cool on about 80% of the days is some kind of weakness.

In my universe, 61 means sixty one.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7A5203B0-653B-486E-8C0F-12CDD9D3933D_zps1gdoxayl.png

[TT-SEA]

In my universe, 61 means sixty one.

 

 

Yes... 61 is the official high on the 12Z run.   It rarely shows a post-5 p.m. high here but it did today.