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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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A well below average June across the entire region?

Did I actually say "well below" average?

 

Anyway, I'm glad to see the GFS has woken up.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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PDX is down to average for the month.

 

SEA: +1.6

BLI: +1.7

WFO Seattle: +1.8

OLM: +.5

 

Definitely been cooler relative to average further south over the past week. For the region as a whole, it's looking like the month will end up fairly close to normal, but of course a major heatwave or a period of prolonged troughing over the next couple weeks could still tilt it more decidedly one way or the other.

A forum for the end of the world.

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SEA: +1.6

BLI: +1.7

WFO Seattle: +1.8

OLM: +.5

 

Definitely been cooler relative to average further south over the past week. For the region as a whole, it's looking like the month will end up fairly close to normal, but of course a major heatwave or a period of prolonged troughing over the next couple weeks could still tilt it more decidedly one way or the other.

EUG: -0.8

PDX: 0.1

SLE: 0.1

Station of the gods: 0.5

 

I recall you saying you'd "judge me" based on SLE/OLM et al.

 

I think I'll pass with a decent grade.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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#woke

#MASSIVEheatwave

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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As I said, it's been cooler further south.

 

Ye shall be judged by the WRCC maps.

You know those are based on the extrapolation of preliminary data, right? I'm not saying they're wrong, but there are probably better ways to go about it.

 

I'd argue the PRISM maps are better than the WRCC ones.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Sitting at 98*F with a 70*F dewpoint. I don't want to hear Jesse complain about 60*F+ lows ever again.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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To quote Richard. {^~!]^ The cold is more South}€~!{*

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We haven't even had 65+ dewpoints the past couple summers. It's been remarkably arid. Definitely way overdue.

Man oh man, if I could afford a summer home up there...

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Lots of half acre view lots available in suburban Stampede Pass...

Bazinga!

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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12z EPS drops another 2" of rain at SEA over the next 15 days.

 

There are two "clusters", but 35/51 members have over 2.5" of rain there thru d15, and 17 of those members have over 4".

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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12z EPS drops another 2" of rain at SEA over the next 15 days.

 

There are two "clusters", but 35/51 members have over 2.5" of rain there thru d15, and 17 of those members have over 4".

 

Another?

 

There has only been rain on 3 days this month and SEA is running about 50% of normal for rainfall.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW, the EPS sort of reverses the temperature anomaly gradient, with southern zones running warmer/drier compared to northern zones, relative to the current pattern.

 

During the "warm spell" which lasts a few days, the EPS keeps onshore streamflow going over SEA (winds stay W/SW) but PDX sees four days of easterly winds.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Another?

 

There has only been rain on 3 days this month and SEA is running about 50% of normal for rainfall.

What? I meant "another", as in 2" more on top of what has already fallen.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that 2" had already fallen.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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What? I meant "another", as in 2" more on top of what has already fallen.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that 2" had already fallen.

 

It sounded like you were saying it has been a wet month and getting wetter.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It sounded like you were saying it has been a wet month and getting wetter.

Well, that's not what I was saying. :)

 

June is approximately halfway over. If SEA is at 50% of normal rainfall, then it's been a fairly normal month in the rainfall department so far.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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12Z ECMWF showed a high of 60 at SEA today.    It was 62 at 2 p.m. and the marine layer is breaking up a little so it will likely get a little warmer.   Typical ECMWF.   :)

 

sea2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF showed a high of 60 at SEA today. It was 62 at 2 p.m. and the marine layer is breaking up a little so it will likely go warmer. Typical ECMWF. :)

 

 

How many posts will you need to make about this until you feel satiated?

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It showed a high of 61. If it's a few degrees off in either direction, that's within the margin of error on any day. Yesterday it was two degrees too warm.

 

#notabias

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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It showed a high of 61. If it's a few degrees off, that's within the margin of error on any day.

 

#notabias

 

Showed 60 on the 12Z operational run through 5 p.m... but I did see it has 61 after 5 p.m.  

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_3.png

 

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that is has a Puget Sound area cool bias.   I watch it every single day for this area.   Being too cool on about 80% of the days is some kind of weakness.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Prepare to be disappointed then. ;)

Lol.

 

We successfully fried an egg on our driveway today. I'll post the video later, but it actually works.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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12Z ECMWF shows 60 at SEA tomorrow which seems quite low.   GFS MOS has 70.  For this area... the GFS MOS is much more reliable in the warm season.   

 

I am guessing 66 or 67 tomorrow.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF shows 60 at SEA tomorrow which seems quite low. GFS MOS has 70. For this area... the GFS MOS is much more reliable in the warm season.

 

I am guessing 66 or 67 tomorrow.

Double down!

 

My eyes aren't quite bleeding yet. Almost there.

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Showed 60 on the 12Z operational run through 5 p.m... but I did see it has 61 after 5 p.m.

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_3.png

 

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that is has a Puget Sound area cool bias. I watch it every single day for this area. Being too cool on about 80% of the days is some kind of weakness. :)

In my universe, 61 means sixty one.

 

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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In my universe, 61 means sixty one.

 

 

Yes... 61 is the official high on the 12Z run.   It rarely shows a post-5 p.m. high here but it did today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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