August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

Surprising to who?

 

Al Gore and his cronies.

[ShawniganLake]

Al Gore and his cronies.

I was curious so I checked. Hasn't been below 50 here since June 23rd. That seems like an unusually long stretch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"The labor of clearing the great space was done by ***** slaves and Mexicans, as no white man could have worked and endured the insect bites and malaria, snake bites, impure water, and other hardships. Many of the blacks died before their work was done."

 

MAGA!

 

We are so soft...

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows up to 40 inches of rain now:

 

[TT-SEA]

Smoke model... run the loop for the best view.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=00

 

Seems to keep everything to the east for the next couple days and its not as extensive in general as it was a couple weeks ago.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

44 this morning. 

 

48 here... coolest morning in quite awhile.  

 

Not sure if you saw my post from Monday, but my sons and their friends watched the total eclipse in a field in Jefferson and then immediately were stuck in traffic trying to head north so they looked on their phones for a good hiking spot and ended up at Silver Falls.   They loved it... they had more pictures and videos from there than the eclipse.  

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF shows up to 40 inches of rain now:

 

Yeah..48" of rain in 5 days is serious stuff just about anywhere.

 

The Gulf of Mexico literally causes nothing but trouble for this country in terms of weather/disasters. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and dangerous summer heat indices are all caused by those fiery waters.

[Phil]

Sorry, final OT post for now.

 

Harvey's minimum central pressure is already lower than Ike's when it made landfall. Smaller storms tend to cycle faster following ERCs so I expect Harvey will be upgraded to a major hurricane by this afternoon, probably around 115-125mph. I'm watching those webcams and Wunderground stations like it's the first moon landing.

 

Eye is clearing out nicely on both GOES16 visible and radar.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ADD3439F-5AC8-48BE-804F-82168A28A1AB_zpsvot1du56.jpg

[stuffradio]

It dropped to 46 here. #mustbeglobularwarming

[Kayla]

00Z ECMWF shows up to 40 inches of rain now:

 

 

The ECMWF brings it in near Corpus Christi then just sits there, retreats back offshore, strengthens and then comes back ashore near Galveston as once again a major hurricane. Just an absolute worst case scenario.

[Kayla]

Yeah..48" of rain in 5 days is serious stuff just about anywhere.

 

The Gulf of Mexico literally causes nothing but trouble for this country in terms of weather/disasters. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and dangerous summer heat indices are all caused by those fiery waters.

 

If the 00z ECMWF is right, your 48" rain forecast may not have been all that far fetched! Likely even see some 50"+ areas if the ECWMF were to verify. Insane.

[Phil]

This is hard to fathom.

 

The 12z NAM WRF drops 54" of rain in 84hrs, and is still dumping at the end of the run. Worst case, this could be the most costly US natural disaster since Ike, if not Katrina.

[Phil]

If the 00z ECMWF is right, your 48" rain forecast may not have been all that far fetched! Likely even see some 50"+ areas if the ECWMF were to verify. Insane.

Yeah, I'm glad I didn't chase this one (was really considering it until I analyzed the roads and topography, then noped out). That amount of water is obscene and will cause huge problems everywhere and everywhere.

[Front Ranger]

Station of the gods dropped to at least 44, their coolest low since 7/11.

[epiceast]

Station of the gods dropped to at least 44, their coolest low since 7/11.

If only 7/11 was a full time job, then it would have froze!

[TT-SEA]

This is hard to fathom.

 

The 12z NAM WRF drops 54" of rain in 84hrs, and is still dumping at the end of the run. Worst case, this could be the most costly US natural disaster since Ike, if not Katrina.

 

Time for Trump to shine!   

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF brings it in near Corpus Christi then just sits there, retreats back offshore, strengthens and then comes back ashore near Galveston as once again a major hurricane. Just an absolute worst case scenario.

 

Its like nature is just comically punishing them when you run the loop.   It circles back and gains strength and then just pounds the coast again. Like someone who hates Texas is controlling the weather.   Absolute nightmare scenario.

[Phil]

Time for Trump to shine!

Lol, you just had to go there.

 

Though, if anyone could bungle a natural disaster response more prolifically than Bush did w/ Katrina, it'd probably be Trump.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, you just had to go there.

 

Though, if anyone could bungle a natural disaster response more prolifically than Bush did w/ Katrina, it'd probably be Trump.

 

At the very least... he will start attacking and mocking the storm via Twitter.    

[Front Ranger]

At the very least... he will start attacking and mocking the storm via Twitter.    

 

Probably. Though I heard on CNN that Harvey is a Republican. Californians agree, per happ.

[Kayla]

Probably. Though I heard on CNN that Harvey is a Republican. Californians agree, per happ.

 

Tims point stands...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48 here... coolest morning in quite awhile.  

 

Not sure if you saw my post from Monday, but my sons and their friends watched the total eclipse in a field in Jefferson and then immediately were stuck in traffic trying to head north so they looked on their phones for a good hiking spot and ended up at Silver Falls.   They loved it... they had more pictures and videos from there than the eclipse.  

 

Very nice!

[BLI snowman]

Our stagnant hellish ridge will certainly help Harvey murder TX.

[Front Ranger]

Our stagnant hellish ridge will certainly help Harvey murder TX.

 

It will be interesting to see where the pattern goes once Harvey finally moves on. Big-time retrogression by week 2 or so of September isn't out of the question.

[Phil]

Live streaming cameras from Corpus Christi if anyone is interested. Should get crazy later this afternoon/evening.

 

http://www.cctexas.com/services/general-government/bayfront-webcams

[BLI snowman]

It will be interesting to see where the pattern goes once Harvey finally moves on. Big-time retrogression by week 2 or so of September isn't out of the question.

 

It would be nice, there hasn't been a significant trough over us since April.

[Phil]

This is a great live feed too.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&noapp=1&v=SBfsTmlIuzc

[Timmy]

Driving santiam pass to bend. Worst smoke I have seen just east of Detroit. You can't even see across the lake!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a hurricane hitting Texas in 6 days on the 12Z ECMWF... or is that still Harvey?    <_>

 

[Front Ranger]

How do precip totals look compared to previous runs?

[Phil]

How do precip totals look compared to previous runs?

This run is worse. Between 50-60" of rain.

[TT-SEA]

How do precip totals look compared to previous runs?

 

Actually a little less for Houston... but also showing an area of 50+ inches to the south.

 

[Front Ranger]

Wow.

 

This run also significantly tames the warmth next weekend. Seems to be the trend for now.

[Phil]

Harvey is officially a major hurricane, with sustained winds now at 120mph. Pressure still dropping, and the co-centric eyewalls have consolidated. Barring dry air entrainment, Harvey could make a run at 130mph+.

[Jesse]

Wow.

 

This run also significantly tames the warmth next weekend. Seems to be the trend for now.

The 00z Euro was hot through day 10. Wouldn't call it a trend yet. Just run to run variability in the mid-long range.

[Phil]

The 00z Euro was hot through day 10. Wouldn't call it a trend yet. Just run to run variability in the mid-long range.

Yeah, both the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS are warm/ridgy well into the clown range. I can't find any kind of cool signal on the ensemble data as of now.

[Deweydog]

Doesn't Harvey know you're not supposed to mess with Texas?

[Front Ranger]

The 00z Euro was hot through day 10. Wouldn't call it a trend yet. Just run to run variability in the mid-long range.

 

Overall, models runs over the past 24 hours have trended at least somewhat cooler for next weekend. But yeah, maybe too soon to call it a trend.

[Deweydog]

Overall, models runs over the past 24 hours have trended at least somewhat cooler for next weekend. But yeah, maybe too soon to call it a trend.

The GFS was off its rocker on the hot side. Seems unlikely we'd see 4-6 days at or above 100 degreez in early September.