Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z GEFS trending more with a -NAO Week 2 which directly relates to the idea I pointed out how these tropical systems effect the downstream pattern as a ridge usually likes to form south of Greenland... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS back with a Hurricane Matthew-like track hugging the eastern FL coastline...this would be a worst case scenario if you ask me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 My word. 888. Does anyone know what the lowest pressure ever recorded was?What was Harvey at its strongest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS back with a Hurricane Matthew-like track hugging the eastern FL coastline...this would be a worst case scenario if you ask me... Looks horrible thanks to the unrealistic pictures panted by our GFS but in reality Matthew was also shown at 921mb iirc but ended up being weak sauce for the east side of FL. My buddy near the Cape said it just basically downed some trees. No worse than a strong summer T-storm here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks horrible thanks to the unrealistic pictures panted by our GFS but in reality Matthew was also shown at 921mb iirc but ended up being weak sauce for the east side of FL. My buddy near the Cape said it just basically downed some trees. No worse than a strong summer T-storm here.True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify. On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 This is what I found......The lowest atmospheric pressure recorded in a hurricane was 882 mb(26.05 inHg). It was recorded on 19-10-2005 in the eye of hurricane Wilma. Note: The lowest pressure recorded in any hurricane/cyclone/typhoon was 870 mb (25.69 inHg). It was recorded on 12-10-1979 in the eye of super typhoon Tip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Smoke has arrived here. The sky is yellow. There is only one explanation for this: 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Smoke has arrived here. The sky is yellow. There is only one explanation for this: southpark-blame-canada.jpgCan you smell it on the surface??? I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Can you smell it on the surface??? I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside. Can't smell it, and smoke normally doesn't affect me. Just a visual thing here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Wow yeah its smokey here too. kind of an orangish sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 My brother just got back from caribou hunting near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 I hope the CF today can deliver a good dose of storms. Much cooler air coming afterwards. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 My brother just got back from caribou hunting near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska.IMG_1542.JPGWow, that is about as far north as you can get in the U.S.! That looks like a fun experience. Do you know when that picture was taken? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 My word. 888. Does anyone know what the lowest pressure ever recorded was?What was Harvey at its strongest?https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/19/ten-years-ago-hurricane-wilma-underwent-most-extreme-intensification-in-atlantic-history/?utm_term=.536bff106414 882mb perhaps on Hurricane Wilma. Harvey I believe had a 938mb. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just a few days ago Tom. Yeah it is ver far north. North of the arctic circle. Extremely remote. They got flown in and dropped off. They had to get a satellite phone as that is the only means of communication out there. He got a caribou though. I'm sure a trip he'll never forget. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify. On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean.12z GFS is a worse-case scenario. Irma basically skirts the coast of Cuba without making landfall. If it were to cross a bit of the mountains in Cuba it would really be ripped apart pretty good before making its way back out to sea. 12z run is eye-opening. If I were in S FL right now I'd be getting my pre-plan in place. That is some scary, scary stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Smoky haze here again today. Friday night was the worse with the smoke. Smelled like a campfire everywhere. Only 73 here now after 88 yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z GFS is a worse-case scenario. Irma basically skirts the coast of Cuba without making landfall. If it were to cross a bit of the mountains in Cuba it would really be ripped apart pretty good before making its way back out to sea. 12z run is eye-opening. If I were in S FL right now I'd be getting my pre-plan in place. That is some scary, scary stuff.Remarkably, both GFS and Euro are in similar agreement with a direct hit into MIA. Where and how it tracks from here differ a bit. As you said, it's time to start prepping. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Remarkably, both GFS and Euro are in similar agreement with a direct hit into MIA. Where and how it tracks from here differ a bit. As you said, it's time to start prepping.I hadn't even checked the Euro yet but you're right. The tracks are eerily similar. Still plenty of time for favorable changes in track and to sort out the intensity, but I'm sure the alarms are starting to sound in the weather offices in FL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 As a country, we do not need another major impacting Hurricane that quite possibly may make 2 landfalls. Harvey is estimated to cost the U.S. over $150B...can you imagine if there is another catastrophic event??? Where will we get all this money??? No bueno...budget plans will be broken... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Another scary scenario to consider is the fact this thing may barrel north right through the middle of FL. So much for evacuating one coast to the other. People are going to have to travel far north to get out of the way. A sub 900mb (or so) storm isn't just going to have impacts on the coasts. Inland areas would be severely impacted, depending on the track of course. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 I thought early on and called it an Andrew repeat. This has the path but it will be so much worse than Andrew ever was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Temps here have crashed from 73 to 57 in the last 15 minutes with an approaching line of intense storms from the north. Wind gusts are pretty intense as well. Crazy. Edit: 55 and still falling rapidly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Temps here have crashed from 73 to 57 in the last 15 minutes with an approaching line of intense storms from the north. Wind gusts are pretty intense as well. Crazy. Edit: 55 and still falling rapidly.Wow! Yeah they said the coldest air was lagging way behind the front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 I thought early on and called it an Andrew repeat. This has the path but it will be so much worse than Andrew ever was.She'll be hard pressed to dethrone Andrew! He was compact and able to ramp up to amazing 165 mph gusts @ landfall. Bigger maybe, stronger or more devastating I have a hard time believing that tbh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Can you smell it on the surface??? I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside. Only thing I can smell is my daughter burning something in the kitchen LOL! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 As a country, we do not need another major impacting Hurricane that quite possibly may make 2 landfalls. Harvey is estimated to cost the U.S. over $150B...can you imagine if there is another catastrophic event??? Where will we get all this money??? No bueno...budget plans will be broken...Not only the cost but FEMA would be hard pressed to respond with everything committed to Harvey! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify. On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean.The left side of a cane is always weaker than the right, so a graze along the east side of FL is preferable to any direct hit. And if she's weakened by anything at all I think she remains weak similar to Matthew. Not buying any doomsday scenario that the GFS wants to sell. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Irma Cat 4 now 130mph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 That was a weird looking sky for a while late this morning. Had the smoke and a thin layer of clouds in the mid layers so you could see the red colored sun through the clouds and the air was a weird grayish to yellowish color at times. Almost reminded me of how things looked weird right before totality during the eclipse. I got out my video camera and used the zoom on it and you could see a couple of big sun spots. Couldn't smell any smoke though. The clouds cleared and now the sun is just a tint of orangish red with the smoke still up in the atmosphere 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 That was a weird looking sky for a while late this morning. Had the smoke and a thin layer of clouds in the mid layers so you could see the red colored sun through the clouds and the air was a weird grayish to yellowish color at times. Almost reminded me of how things looked weird right before totality during the eclipse. I got out my video camera and used the zoom on it and you could see a couple of big sun spots. Couldn't smell any smoke though. The clouds cleared and now the sun is just a tint of orangish red with the smoke still up in the atmosphereI was just driving and thought the same thing when I saw the sun - reminded me of the eclipse around here...never got as warm as they said, which is okay by me, but the hazy clouds have certainly put a weird "tint" to the air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Might not mean anything, but last week I heard several flocks of geese which I found odd. Don't they usually fly south later this month or Oct? Thought it was peculiar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Might not mean anything, but last week I heard several flocks of geese which I found odd. Don't they usually fly south later this month or Oct? Thought it was peculiar.I heard them for the first time yesterday morning and then again today - definitely a fall sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma Cat 4 now 130mphNow with 140mph! Got a bad feeling about this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Now with 140mph! Got a bad feeling about this one. From other poster......"Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm" Apparently on 12z GFS? Any confirmation of that Tom? Did u see anything like that?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Got some nice storms earlier. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 @Thunder98 Did ya break some more records? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like the CF has past. Clouds are starting to break. Saw a large tree branch that was knock down by the wind. No damage though anywhere. So long to the warm air we had today. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 From other poster......"Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm" Apparently on 12z GFS? Any confirmation of that Tom? Did u see anything like that??18z GFS gets squashed but there are several sub 990's showing up on the GEFS members. GEFS still taking the idea of a track up through the OV/eastern GL's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2017 Report Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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