PNW December 2022 - Part II

[WildrootParable]

Precip seems to be done for now, but my unscientific opinion is that the clouds look...heavy? Is that a thing? 

What a day. Hard to get anything done because I have the obsessed-with-looking-out-the-window disease.  

[snow_wizard]

GFS is pretty good for snow over the next 36 from BLI to OLM.  Moving from N to S pretty much.

[Doinko]

High 40s in the southern Willamette Valley on Tuesday

[TacomaWx]

Low a bit further south again. Goes right over Tacoma this time. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

18z runs are pointless, same with 6z. We’ll see how things look tonight 

[snow_wizard]

GFS is 3 degrees colder Tuesday afternoon than the 12z for the Seattle area.  Moving the right way.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Low a bit further south again. Goes right over Tacoma this time. 

This looks promising for us.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This looks promising for us.

I just looked again and it’s actually almost exactly the same as the last run. Needs to be about 20-30 miles further south to work out here. 18z euro hopefully shows that. 

[Deweydog]

Clouds are increasing here!

[WeatherGeek2022]

10 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

Precip seems to be done for now, but my unscientific opinion is that the clouds look...heavy? Is that a thing? 

What a day. Hard to get anything done because I have the obsessed-with-looking-out-the-window disease.  

 

[lowlandsnow]

GEFS looks slightly better

[snow_wizard]

Nice move in the right direction.   I'll take it.

[Sandy rocks]

I have to say that Drama Queens don't hold a candle to you guys. You just go which ever way the wind blows without seeing the whole picture. I do have to say that I have had my share of ice storms including the time I needed a shovel to get into my house.  I'll have have warm rain over that but of course I am not in the driver's seat.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I just looked again and it’s actually almost exactly the same as the last run. Needs to be about 20-30 miles further south to work out here. 18z euro hopefully shows that. 

It's colder with mid levels and surface temps.  Certainly better.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Sandy rocks said:

I have to say that Drama Queens don't hold a candle to you guys. You just go which ever way the wind blows without seeing the whole picture. I do have to say that I have had my share of ice storms including the time I needed a shovel to get into my house.  I'll have have warm rain over that but of course I am not in the driver's seat.

I have never backed down on this one.   Just trying to defend my position.

[Terreboner]

That cold cumulus streaming towards NW Oregon is not on the models.  Looks like a surprise to me.

[Doinko]

GFS is a lot different with that overrunning event

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is better for the Seattle area on every metric for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  A notch colder and it snows in areas that didn't have it on the 12z.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's colder with mid levels and surface temps.  Certainly better.

It’s definitely an improvement overall. Last run the snow line was north of king county…now north of pierce county so a subtle but good shift.

[Sandy rocks]

I am not trying to criticize you, Snow Wizard. I am just responding to the over all tone of the discussion.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely an improvement overall. Last run the snow line was north of king county…now north of pierce county so a subtle but good shift.

One more notch on the 12z and we're golden.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

One more notch on the 12z and we're golden.

It’s gone the right way for several runs now. I still think it’ll be a good event from atleast Olympia north at this point. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

@snow_wizard I am still onboard! I’m not trying be negative, I just want to show volatility of this system/next couple days. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I have to say that Drama Queens don't hold a candle to you guys. You just go which ever way the wind blows without seeing the whole picture. I do have to say that I have had my share of ice storms including the time I needed a shovel to get into my house.  I'll have have warm rain over that but of course I am not in the driver's seat.

Thank you! Why watch soap operas when u can read the WF!

[snow_wizard]

It appears the chances for a serious ice event are waning with this event.  Good.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Also, great trend on the GFS. #teamrugpush

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@snow_wizard I am still onboard! I’m not trying be negative, I just want to show volatility of this system/next couple days. 

It's all good.  I'm just wound up.  This one has been unusually weird.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Dryyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also, great trend on the GFS. #teamrugpush

Just one notch better would nail Seattle good.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Dryyyyyyyyyyyyyy

If you don't want ice that's very good.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also, great trend on the GFS. #teamrugpush

trend south more...

[snow_wizard]

So many chances north of Everett coming up.  OLM to SEA looks good, but up there could be pretty wild.

[Terreboner]

Portland is still very much in the game.  

[Cold Snap]

I feel like the GFS is slowly going to trend better the next few runs. Could have huge potential in some places if this thing is really juicy.

[lowlandsnow]

GEFS is better

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Portland is still very much in the game.  

I think so too given the circumstances.  The 12z EPS still had a lot of really cold members.

[Brennan]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also, great trend on the GFS. #teamrugpush

Lock it in. 1 to 2 FEET of snow in Whatcom County. 

[Nov1985]

35 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

Precip seems to be done for now, but my unscientific opinion is that the clouds look...heavy? Is that a thing? 

What a day. Hard to get anything done because I have the obsessed-with-looking-out-the-window disease.  

I see another band spinning up over lk Sammamish. This could be fun. I have a poor man's half inch already.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Portland is still very much in the game.  

[flya00]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also, great trend on the GFS. #teamrugpush

NEED this for the Fraser Valley, 2+ feet!!