March in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Mid march. Arctic express.

18z?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z?

yep. At the end. But the way this year is going I wouldn't be surprised.

[TT-SEA]

yep. At the end. But the way this year is going I wouldn't be surprised.

 

 

Keep it away.

 

It just flirts with us and then sets up days of rain along the boundary.

 

I would rather no cold air gets within 1,000 miles of us until next November at this point.    It does nothing but produce cold, lumpy rain and ice.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Keep it away.

 

It just flirts with us and then sets up days of rain along the boundary.

 

I would rather no cold air gets within 1,000 miles of us until next November at this point.    It does nothing but produce cold, lumpy rain and ice.  

Yeah, what I meant was of all years this would be the year we get some insane once in 200 years arctic air at the end of march. Then everyone could complain why it didn't happen in January.

[Jesse]

Heavy downpours this afternoon. There has been hail mixed in and even a rumble of thunder. Strange to experience that with so much snow on the ground still.

 

High of 41 so far.

[Jesse]

Keep it away.

 

It just flirts with us and then sets up days of rain along the boundary.

 

I would rather no cold air gets within 1,000 miles of us until next November at this point.    It does nothing but produce cold, lumpy rain and ice.  

 

Cold air is still important for the mountains. March is a snowpack building month.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah, what I meant was of all years this would be the year we get some insane once in 200 years arctic air at the end of march. Then everyone could complain why it didn't happen in January.

 

^ This right here.

 

With the way this year has trended, anything is possible. If we had a massive snow storm in the middle of March I suppose I wouldn't be surpised. (as unlikely as it may seem).

[HighlandExperience]

Story of our winter..

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold air is still important for the mountains. March is a snowpack building month.

Yep, the best snowmobiling is in march and april if it remains cold.

[MossMan]

What is the latest time frame in March where we have had a region wide true arctic blast? Snow & cold that lasted more than a day or two.

[Jesse]

Story of our winter..

 

 

Except that it's not.

 

Temps in the PNW were below average overall Dec-Feb. Probably our coldest winter as a whole in quite some time.

 

Some people seem to automatically think that it was a torchy winter just because the Seattle metro never had a big snow event. It was a stellar winter from Kelso south and Arlington north. As far as temperatures, they were well below average everywhere except for maybe SEA and Andrew's house.

[TT-SEA]

Cold air is still important for the mountains. March is a snowpack building month.

Mountains are good.

[Jesse]

Mountains are good.

 

They won't be if they spend the entire month of March melting out.

 

Cold air in the spring makes for interesting weather too. The downpours this afternoon got me in the mood for the cold core convection season.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

They won't be if they spend the entire month of March melting out.

 

Cold air in the spring makes for interesting weather too. The downpours this afternoon got me in the mood for the cold core convection season.

Yeah no doubt. Interesting weather is fun. Thunder storms rank up there with snow for me.

[luminen]

Cold core convection is nothing compared to warm core convection.

 

Pretty nice day here in Eugene after the showers stopped. That sun sure feels strong...and nice!

[TT-SEA]

They won't be if they spend the entire month of March melting out.

 

Cold air in the spring makes for interesting weather too. The downpours this afternoon got me in the mood for the cold core convection season.

 

 

That would only happen with warm rain events like the one shown for this coming weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_l.gif

[Jesse]

That would only happen with warm rain events like the one shown for this coming weekend.

 

Soooo....yeah, we should hope cold air decides to come within 1,000 miles of us again between now and November. All the more reason.

[TT-SEA]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_l.gif

 

 

Why show this?     Even if this was 120 hours out... that cold ULL would still probably end up about 500 miles to the north.    

 

The models all showed that last week for right now.   Here is what we got:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

Soooo....yeah, we should hope cold air decides to come within 1,000 miles of us again between now and November. All the more reason.

 

 

No... ridging would be fine for the mountains.     

 

Relax... life will go on and the mountains are good for the summer now.   Water supply will be just fine... if not above normal.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why show this?     Even if this was 120 hours out... that cold ULL would still probably end up about 500 miles to the north.    

 

The models all showed that last week for right now.   Here is what we got:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif

Because it still happens right sometimes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why show a ridge over us 180hrs out?

[TT-SEA]

Because it still happens right sometimes.

 

 

384 hours on the 18Z GFS?    I supposed by random coincidence at some point.   

[Jesse]

No... ridging would be fine for the mountains.     

 

Relax... life will go on and the mountains are good for the summer now.   Water supply will be just fine... if not above normal.  

 

I am relaxed. You are the one expecting ridiculous things out of the weather. Of course we will have cold airmasses over us from time to time between now and November.

[TT-SEA]

Why show a ridge over us 180hrs out?

 

 

It would be closer.   Anything within the resolution change is at least fair game.

 

By the way... the last 2 runs of the GFS have been awesome for next week but the ECMWF says screw that so I am sure it won't be happening.

[TT-SEA]

I am relaxed. You are the one expecting ridiculous things out of the weather. Of course we will have cold airmasses over us from time to time between now and November.

 

No kidding.    Thanks for the stating the obvious!  

[richard mann]

.. hey "fellas", .. "ladies". 
 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/outlooks/sew
  
Cold air mass regression at this point, lending to main low-centers, and so general system and storm centers being focused increasing more north, looks as if.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/75-late-winter-2014-colder-air-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=19537

[Skagit Weather]

Just saw a flash of lightning off to my east and it looks like the lightning tracker picked it up.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning2.jpg

[MossMan]

Just saw a flash of lightning off to my east and it looks like the lightning tracker picked it up.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning2.jpg

Moderate to heavy shower overhead right now, but have not seen any lightning yet as I look out my window towards the cascades.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is the latest arctic intrusion of air we have had in the puget sound?

[TT-SEA]

What is the latest arctic intrusion of air we have had in the puget sound?

 

 

Define arctic.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Define arctic.

high of 32 or lower with outflow. Or I guess mid 30's with outflow.

[snow_wizard]

What is the latest arctic intrusion of air we have had in the puget sound?

 

The latest really big one was in March 1870.  It went from the 12th through the 16th.  Very cold and a lot of snow.  Just to give an idea of how cold the Fraser outflow was...the temps was 10 degrees at Fort San Juan with strong winds at 7am on the 13th.  That would mean it was easily in the low single digits in Whatcom County.  Amazingly there are records for Seattle on that one.  Dropped to 16 on the shores of Lake Washington which is a bad spot for cold low temps.  An outstanding event.

 

The latest widespread major snowfall was in 1936.  The Puget Sound area had heavy amounts on the 28th or thereabouts and Portland had a nice snow on April 1.  Lows dropped below 20 in many places.

[MossMan]

Does the 00z show the arctic blast as well?

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and the GFS ensemble are liking the idea of rising heights over the GOA around mid month.  The last several runs have all had some variation of that theme.  That would give us a fighting chance of some drier and cooler weather with frosty nights at the very least.

[snow_wizard]

Does the 00z show the arctic blast as well?

 

No...but it shows a trough with rising heights off the coast.  Below normal temps for sure.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The latest really big one was in March 1870.  It went from the 12th through the 16th.  Very cold and a lot of snow.  Just to give an idea of how cold the Fraser outflow was...the temps was 10 degrees at Fort San Juan with strong winds at 7am on the 13th.  That would mean it was easily in the low single digits in Whatcom County.  Amazingly there are records for Seattle on that one.  Dropped to 16 on the shores of Lake Washington which is a bad spot for cold low temps.  An outstanding event.

 

The latest widespread major snowfall was in 1936.  The Puget Sound area had heavy amounts on the 28th or thereabouts and Portland had a nice snow on April 1.  Lows dropped below 20 in many places.

Wow I had no idea it could happen that late. Makes me wonder how many more there were going back ever further.

[chinook]

Wow I had no idea it could happen that late. Makes me wonder how many more there were going back ever further.

The Ice Age for the win.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble mean goes below the normal line around the 10th and then again just after mid month.  It's been very consistent in showing the cooling just after mid month for several runs now.  If the wave length shortens and the crazy cold anomalies that have dominated east of the Rockies migrate westward a very late cold event of some sort could be possible.  Still a lot of cold air in play.

[Timmy Supercell]

Winter may be done for me already even though I live in the mountains. Its just been raining, and having lows well above freezing. With the weather I've seen this past week, I just might officially call this Spring. Ended with 8.80" of snow this season, also ended last winter with 15.0". Both well below normal.