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March in the Pacific Northwest


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I guess we know where the true weather geeks are. Right here! The Great Lakes Feb. discussion had 1,232 posts. Ours had 8,380! Now we just need to get their weather and we'd be all set!

Well that would most definitely occur in a -ENSO winter.  This next winter looks to be warm...so perhaps the following winter will be cold...and therefore favorable.  Not that El Nino winters can't produce coastal snowfall or cold intrusions...they just don't happen as much as La Nina winters.

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I think the odds are pretty high we get some kind of torch next winter. Doesn't mean we can't throw a January 1998 like event into the mix though. I really think 2015-16 could be big. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I have a feeling most of us will see snow before the weekend is over. Like I said last night the models have a terrible time working out a solution with all this dry offshore flow. I see they have a winter storm watch for the canal. :)

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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It is just amazing to me that just from evaporative cooling the temp can drop 10-15 degrees in the matter of a half hour. Really interesting.

 

Now the NWS is calling for an inch today/tonight, with the possibility of 1-3 inches tonight. I don't know if I'd quite believe that, I would think closer to an inch or less. But as Snowmizer has pointed out recently, with this kind of set up, there might be some nice surprises.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Wow, this has suddenly gotten much more interesting! From the SEA NWS discussion this morning:

.SHORT TERM...   AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWLAND INTERIOR   THIS MORNING. A WET BULB COOLING PROCESS WAS OCCURRING. THIS WAS   CONFIRMED BY A SPOTTER IN NORTH BEND WHO STATED THAT THE   TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 47 DEGREES TO 37 DEGREES IN ABOUT 15   MINUTES. THIS MEANS THAT WHERE IT IS RAINING...EXPECT TEMPS TO   PLUMMET 10-15 DEGREES AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE...LEADING TO A   CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW.      THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS DUE TO   WET BULB OR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. NOW...THIS MEANS THAT MANY   LOWLAND SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE SOME   LIGHT SNOW TODAY BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING.   AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY.   TONIGHT...PRECIP RATES WILL INCREASE LEADING TO MORE SIGNIFICANT   SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR   AND THE HOOD CANAL AREA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO   INCLUDE THE HOOD CANAL ZONE. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE INTERIOR   LOWLANDS...AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AN INCH   OR LESS. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND   LOWLANDS AS ADVISORY AMOUNTS /1 TO 3 INCHES/ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER   THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IS THE AREA ON   THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW   COULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES. 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW

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Wow, this has suddenly gotten much more interesting! From the SEA NWS discussion this morning:

.SHORT TERM...   AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWLAND INTERIOR   THIS MORNING. A WET BULB COOLING PROCESS WAS OCCURRING. THIS WAS   CONFIRMED BY A SPOTTER IN NORTH BEND WHO STATED THAT THE   TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 47 DEGREES TO 37 DEGREES IN ABOUT 15   MINUTES. THIS MEANS THAT WHERE IT IS RAINING...EXPECT TEMPS TO   PLUMMET 10-15 DEGREES AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE...LEADING TO A   CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW.      THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS DUE TO   WET BULB OR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. NOW...THIS MEANS THAT MANY   LOWLAND SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE SOME   LIGHT SNOW TODAY BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING.   AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY.   TONIGHT...PRECIP RATES WILL INCREASE LEADING TO MORE SIGNIFICANT   SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR   AND THE HOOD CANAL AREA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO   INCLUDE THE HOOD CANAL ZONE. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE INTERIOR   LOWLANDS...AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AN INCH   OR LESS. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND   LOWLANDS AS ADVISORY AMOUNTS /1 TO 3 INCHES/ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER   THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IS THE AREA ON   THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW   COULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES. 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW

 

 

I don't think so. 

 

Temperatures are still in the 40s for most places... and the GFS MOS has the coldest temperature at SEA being 37 tonight.    There is not going to be any magical cooling from here.   925 temps are already about to start rising.   

 

Maybe for Bellingham... but not the Seattle area.    This one is dead upon arrival.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX down to 38 now TTD down to 35.

 

Salem is at 47, but their wind just switched from south to north in the past hour.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I don't think so. 

 

Temperatures are still in the 40s for most places... and the GFS MOS has the coldest temperature at SEA being 37 tonight.    There is not going to be any magical cooling from here.   925 temps are already about to start rising.   

 

Maybe for Bellingham... but not the Seattle area.    This one is dead upon arrival.

I don't think any model showed snow possible this morning like has happened. So at this point it might just be a now cast thing.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I don't think so. 

 

Temperatures are still in the 40s for most places... and the GFS MOS has the coldest temperature at SEA being 37 tonight.    There is not going to be any magical cooling from here.   925 temps are already about to start rising.   

 

Maybe for Bellingham... but not the Seattle area.    This one is dead upon arrival.

 

A lot of cold air moving through the gorge at this hour. Temps in the Willamette Valley north of Aurora have been steadily dropping throughout the day. Salem's wind just switched to north as well.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I don't think any model showed snow possible this morning like has happened. So at this point it might just be a now cast thing.

 

The backdoor push of cold air through the gorge seems to be stronger than expected and the mesoanalysis has not yet caught up. Ausburger Mtn. near Hood River at 2100' is at 21 degrees and Biddle Butte at 1500' is down to 27, Corbett is at freezing now too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I don't think any model showed snow possible this morning like has happened. So at this point it might just be a now cast thing.

 

What has happened??

 

A few snowflakes with non-measurable precip?

 

The ECMWF has shown very light precip for today for the last 6 days.    Its not like there is measurable snow happening.   Temperatures are in the 40s and wet bulb cooling is not going to help much more.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What has happened??

 

A few snowflakes with non-measurable precip?

 

The ECMWF has shown very light precip for today for the last 6 days.    Its not like there is measurable snow happening.   Temperatures are in the 40s and wet bulb cooling is not going to help much more.

No model shown snow possible at low elevations this morning. Just thinking that the models don't do well with so much dry and cold air so close. We will see.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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No model shown snow possible at low elevations this morning. Just thinking that the models don't do well with so much dry and cold air so close. We will see.

 

 

I am not sure how the models were supposed to be right other than showing nothing.    Its not accumulating.   The ECMWF showed very light precip... that is what is happening.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX now down to 37.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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OK, only the second time I have ever seen this type of ( we'll call it precip ) and the last time I saw it was in Dec 1996 but there is currently thsee small slush ball type precip falling here and it's making a noticeable " splat " sound as it hits the ground

 

So F****ing weird

 

EDIT: post #420  :P 

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The wet bulb cooling was a surprise, I had heard nothing about that being a possibility until it was happening this morning. I think there will be a lot of suprises this weekend!

 

 

How is wet bulb cooling a surprise with a dry air coming in yesterday and then light precip being shown by the GFS and ECMWF today?

 

It was a given actually.   But there is no accumulating snow.   

 

Here is right now:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.06.0000.gif

 

Here is tomorrow morning:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.30.0000.gif

 

 

There is not going to be all these 'surprises' this weekend.    Nothing is happening.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not sure how the models were supposed to be right other than showing nothing.    Its not accumulating.   The ECMWF showed very light precip... that is what is happening.

 

It would be nice to just see some snow, even if it doesn't stick.

 

It doesn't take much to make me happy.

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I'd be happy to just see some snow, even if it doesn't stick. It doesn't take much to make me happy.

 

Obviously not.   The sunshine made me happy yesterday.

 

Now we don't even have next weekend to look forward to... the models pretty much show rain off and on for the next 10 days.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How is wet bulb cooling a surprise with a dry air coming in yesterday and then light precip being shown by the GFS and ECMWF today?

 

It was a given actually.   But there is no accumulating snow.   

 

Here is right now:

 

 

Here is tomorrow morning:

 

 

 

There is not going to be all these 'surprises' this weekend.    Nothing is happening.    

The NWS thinks there is more potential than what the models are showing.  Maybe you should call them and tell them they will be wrong now, well before any event gets started.

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The NWS thinks there is more potential than what the models are showing.  Maybe you should call them and tell them they will be wrong now, well before any event gets started.

 

 

Its pretty obvious what is happening.   A little low has spun up as show for the last 5 days... and will begin drawing in warmer air later today.    It will rain tomorrow for most places.

 

One guy at the NWS office got a little excited about some initial wet bulb cooling.

 

SEA has light rain and 42 degrees and this is the coldest point of the event.    This is a little silly.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The NWS thinks there is more potential than what the models are showing.  Maybe you should call them and tell them they will be wrong now, well before any event gets started.

 

And this is the 'event'.

 

The next wave of moisture is well offshore and will arrive tomorrow when the entire column is above freezing.    

 

This round of moisture is passing through now... with nothing upstream on the coastal radar.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Obviously not.   The sunshine made me happy yesterday.

 

Now we don't even have next weekend to look forward to... the models pretty much show rain off and on for the next 10 days.    

 

Not sure what you mean by "obviously not."

 

I like almost any weather. Yesterday was great, and I'm enjoying today too.

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Oh good god Tim, REALLY?

 

 

Really.

 

Show me a dry day on the GFS or the ECMWF in the next 10 days.   :)

 

Find one.   It won't happen because its not there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure what you mean by "obviously not."

 

I like almost any weather. Yesterday was great, and I'm enjoying today too.

 

I was agreeing that it does not take much to make him happy.  

 

Light rain and 42 degrees with a possible snowflake in the somewhere?   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The moisture will increase tonight as the trough gets more focused over western wa.

 

 

No.  

 

You are just making that up.   The models show the moisture increasing rapidly tomorrow morning with southerly flow.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No.  

 

You are just making that up.   The models show the moisture increasing rapidly tomorrow morning with southerly flow.

 

What will happen tonight will not roll in from the coast it will develop over us. Watch the visible loop and you can see it happen already.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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