NEJeremy Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 latest 3K Nam has gone extremely dry in East Central Iowa for the rest of the storm. Yuck, 4" of rain for Omaha?! We're still under an inch total so far from this storm but tonight should be the heaviest. Hopefully not that much! http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017100618/030/qpf_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 We're under a severe thunderstorm watch now. I don't think Lincoln will get much, but South of us should get interesting... Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 About as dreary as they come today. This morning I had fog in my area that was easily the densest I have ever seen; it made driving all sorts of fun... After that cleared off it stayed cloudy and is now raining lightly. It would appear our St. Paul member is getting a nice soaking rain as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 GFS much more bullish still on rain. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017100618/030/qpf_024h.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 let's go boys. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 mcd0868.gif let's go boys.Fast forward a couple months "Heavy Snow"...looking promising for you guys out there heading towards Winter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2017 Report Share Posted October 6, 2017 mcd0868.gif let's go boys.Obviously the funnest day weather-wise we've had since Spring has to be the night I go to a hockey game. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Fast forward a couple months "Heavy Snow"...looking promising for you guys out there heading towards Winter!My thoughts exactly. May not have to wait 2 mos even. Was looking at daily data for autumn '89 and was quite surprised to see 70s & 80's just a few days prior to both snowstorms that brought snow OTG. Doesn't need to be a bitter cold month, especially in the plains, to get lucky. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Dreary, wet, mild evening out there. Temps are in the 60s. Light sprinkles on and off. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Best Winter track for the Gl's region..... Toms post: It has a weak SLP dig all the way down into TX Panhandle, then towards Texarkana which is ideal positioning for before it takes a turn up towards the lower lakes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 I hope this is the 1st system in the new LRC. I'm at 1.30" already and that radar means business. Quite a bit of thunder the past couple hours with better rainfall rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Reports of 50mph wind gusts on leading edge of storms in C IA.Also thinking defo band sets up close to mby! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Reports of 50mph wind gusts on leading edge of storms in C IA.Also thinking defo band sets up close to mby!That defo band is wrapping up over E NE peeps as we speak. Looks like it weakens some but swings through your area around dinner time. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 On the heels of this weekends system, another trough dives into the Rockies and a weak CO Low will develop Sunday night and kick out into the southern Plains. Models differ on strength and track so something to monitor. 00z Euro dumps soaking rains for those who missed out on the heavier rains with our current system in E IA/IL/WI/IN/W MI. Widespread 1-2" totals. This is a neat looking system with a Banana-looking HP to the north of the system. The Euro shows a TX Pan Handle hook and digs this system into the southern Plains and tracks towards lower lakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 The next big trough/storm to target our central/northern posters is begin picked up by both the GFS/EURO next weekend. 00z Euro spins up a monster MSP special with wind gusts approaching 60mph off the GL's in the extended and EPS/Control agree. Boy, looks like cutter season is off to a fast start this year! This would be the 3rd system to target our sub forum by mid October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Picked up close to .50'" of precip since this system began which is nowhere near to what the models were painting a couple days ago. Any precip at this point is a blessing. Hoping for the forecasted line of storms to develop later this afternoon to deliver another good soaking to bring totals near an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Picked up close to .50'" of precip since this system began which is nowhere near to what the models were painting a couple days ago. Any precip at this point is a blessing. Hoping for the forecasted line of storms to develop later this afternoon to deliver another good soaking to bring totals near an inch.Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that. Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 The next big trough/storm to target our central/northern posters is begin picked up by both the GFS/EURO next weekend. 00z Euro spins up a monster MSP special with wind gusts approaching 60mph off the GL's in the extended and EPS/Control agree. Boy, looks like cutter season is off to a fast start this year! This would be the 3rd system to target our sub forum by mid October. Sweet! I love strong autumn storms with winds. Today's winds might be just a sampler if that system takes shape. November should be interesting if we can get some truly cold air to work with. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that. Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lolIf the models keep this up we're gonna steal all the snow from you this year! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Hope all is well with you guys! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Picked up 2.48" so far with defo band about to move in. Nice looking comma on radar. Looks like a winter storm! Cycle 2 anyone? White Thanksgiving? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Big time storms moving in SMI later tonight. Looking forward to that. Not sure when the last time was when I saw some severe storms in my area. From NOAA: This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms early tonight. The potentialexists for these storms to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of60 mph. These storms are most likely between 9 pm and Midnight.Storm motion will be to the east-northeast at 45 to 50 mph. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Gulf states are preparing for what is now a Hurricane. Nate is expected to be a CAT2 when making landfall. Good luck to those people down there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that. Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lolI never thought we would get those 2-3" totals but more or less close to 1.0-1.5". This system was taking on a classic autumn storm shape with a comma head signature and a squall line out in the Plains and that likely took a lot of the energy away from areas east. It's almost like we got the WAA snows out ahead of a winter storm...LOL... Hope all is well with you guys!Money man is back! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Hope all is well with you guys!Gettin amped for Winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 12z GEFS are beginning to show signs of an amped up PAC jet in the 6-10 day range....this will be an important puzzle for the models to figure out down the road...looking a lot like what happened last year...or will it??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Some radar estimated totals since Oct 2nd in the Plains... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 So, its a beautiful day today, warm and muggy for October standards. Temps in the 70s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 12z Euro is still showing next weeks Tue/Wed system and a defo band over N KS/SE NE/C IA...day time temps don't make it out of the 40's under the heaviest precip. System weakens considerably heading up into the Lakes but still drops close to 1" totals across the Midwest states and WI/IL/N IN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Euro still showing a storm coming out of CO and tracking through NE/IA/SE MN and rapidly intensifying into the seasons strongest autumn storm This thing looks nice and right on schedule so I hope these are good trends going forward. 990mb storm in N WI by HR198... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Euro still showing a storm coming out of CO and tracking through NE/IA/SE MN and rapidly intensifying into the seasons strongest autumn storm This thing looks nice and right on schedule so I hope these are good trends going forward. 990mb storm in N WI by HR198...There's potential that the upcoming weeks have some of the old pattern in them also. Correct? I think we get to see some new stuff after the 16th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 There's potential that the upcoming weeks have some of the old pattern in them also. Correct? I think we get to see some new stuff after the 16th.Gary mentioned this past week was a blend of the old vs new and that next week an entirely new pattern begins. Hurricane Nate may actually be a part of the new pattern. Will hear more on Monday and let you know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Tom.....so Euro showing 2 systems in the next 10 days? That model seems to be consistent with these systems. It also beat out the GFS with this current system. It was the first to show the comma shape and to hang the defo band into the afternoon for mby. And right now that is whats happening. Closing in on 3" and temp has dropped to 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 3.89" at Lincoln airport for the first week of October. It's been pretty soggy lately so it's nice to see it clearing out for game day. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 12z GEFS are beginning to show signs of an amped up PAC jet in the 6-10 day range....this will be an important puzzle for the models to figure out down the road...looking a lot like what happened last year...or will it??? Let's go with "no" on that. I am not mentally prepared for another winter like that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Currently 81F and windy. A little muggy with dews at 62F. Storms should be firing up tonight. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Gettin amped for Winter?Sort of. That usually doesn't start until the first snowflakes tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 7, 2017 Report Share Posted October 7, 2017 Tuesday is looking wetter and colder as every model run comes out. It is very well possible we may not even reach 50° here Tuesday. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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