Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017102600/240/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 00Z ECMWF surface map shows a high of only 37 at SEA on day 10... and 44 at PDX on that day. Precip is mostly gone by that time though. It does show a tiny bit of snow in the lowlands close to the foothills before it clears out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 00Z ECMWF surface map shows a high of only 37 at SEA on day 10... and 44 at PDX on that day. Precip is mostly gone by that time though. It does show a tiny bit of snow in the lowlands close to the foothills before it clears out. Something like that is certainly possible in early November. The fact the GFS and ECMWF both trended colder is interesting. The GFS ensemble has sped up the return to colder 850s also. Rather interestingly it is exceedingly rare for a cold snap to begin in early November in this area. There have been many that began in late Oct and went into November, but cold actually beginning in the Nov 1 to Nov 5 time frame is almost unheard of. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 6z GFS in 2 hours!Who's staying up for it ? Edit: Just kidding, but ahhh yes soon enough we'll be analyzing every model run scrutinizing every detail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Today (yesterday?) in The Dalles it was 73, only one degree shy of the daily record high. And it was WEST WIND that made the 73 possible, not east wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 10/26/17 2:42 AM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs Day 6-10, 8-14 (*1985 popped up 3 times!) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=265099 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Today (yesterday?) in The Dalles it was 73, only one degree shy of the daily record high. And it was WEST WIND that made the 73 possible, not east wind.Downsloping. That’s going to be a much more efficient way to heat you guys up at this point. You should know this stuff Bon Bon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 10/26/17 2:42 AM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs Day 6-10, 8-14 (*1985 popped up 3 times!) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif November 1985 was a "wonderful" month. In fact, one of the best from my childhood. 2 weeks of (often) bitter cold, multiple snow events, clear cold sunny days with over 15" to 20" of snow on the ground w/ very little to no melting. It was a rare and special event... 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Sitting around 50 with some fog/haze this morning.Have almost completed the process of setting up my weather station. I got a Bloomsky setup. Has a great camera on it and the instruments are power by solar. I'll post the link once it starts transmitting data on WU. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Looking more and more like a maritime verses a continental airmass next weekend... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Looking more and more like a maritime verses a continental airmass next weekend... Bring on the rain. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Bring on the rain. Continental airmass would likely bring you snow. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 A little teaser video I shot last year at the beginning of the 12" dumping we got in February. https://vimeo.com/202707542 4 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Continental airmass would likely bring you snow. I know, but I don't really expect snow in November. Earliest snowfall since moved here in 2011, was 11/14/15. Most significant snowfall was in November 2011, had about 6.5" the weekend before Thanksgiving. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 I know, but I don't really expect snow in November. Earliest snowfall since moved here in 2011, was 11/14/15. Most significant snowfall was in November 2011, had about 6.5" the weekend before Thanksgiving. November 2011 isn't going back very far... Early November snowfall isn't all that unheard of at your elevation. Although early November cold waves are I suppose. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12z GEM is kind of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF FWIW. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 This has to be good news, no? This is the first run this year I think I have seen the GFS showing snow within the lower mainland/fraser valley BC region within 200 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 This has to be good news, no? This is the first run this year I think I have seen the GFS showing snow within the lower mainland/fraser valley BC region within 200 hours. gfs_asnow_nwus_34.png Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! 12Z GEM showing the same type of idea. I wonder if this thing will actually verify... we'll have to see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 12Z GEM showing the same type of idea. I wonder if this thing will actually verify... we'll have to see! Yeah... it's definitely a nice blend of the GFS and Euro. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Yeah... it's definitely a nice blend of the GFS and Euro.Yea that blocking configuration would be ideal for a big snowstorm somewhere in the PNW. Not so sure it would work out being so early. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Socked in with low clouds over a big area this morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 As long as this torch ends soon I’m happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 As long as this torch ends soon I’m happy.Torchy McTorch face. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Consensus here is that no one likes first half of November snow, so...no! Well, I would rather it hold-off a bit later in the season for a number of reasons, but other than that, what I like about this year is the overall larger scale patterns which give us some good possibilities from late fall through winter. Could be a good year winter-white wise, no matter what does or does not happen in the next 200 hours. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Some pretty cold rain on the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's....NW Washington and BC too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Omg so dam close to the WV. Let's keep doing this once every 2 weeks! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Euro says snow at Tim, Timmy's, and Andrew's....Woot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Another seventysaster at PDX??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Another seventysaster at PDX???Fairly solid chance every day between now and Saturday. This is a pretty crazy climo ridge! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Fairly solid chance every day between now and Saturday. This is a pretty crazy climo ridge!Stop looking for trouble, Mr. Trouble McTroubleson. My butt already took a pounding last night. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 A little teaser video I shot last year at the beginning of the 12" dumping we got in February. https://vimeo.com/202707542Wow great job on this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Absolutely MASSIVE early Fall ridge! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Absoutely beautiful fall day! Should get the mushrooms popping finally. I know Jesse will be excited about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now getting out of the low clouds between Eugene and Corvallis. Should be pleasant for the Stanford blowout of the Beavers tonight. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Sure wish the east wind would surface here like in Portland. Sunny morning became foggy late morning and its still foggy. But its sunny just a couple miles to the east. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Sure wish the east wind would surface here like in Portland. Sunny morning became foggy late morning and its still foggy. But its sunny just a couple miles to the east.Clear blue skies and calm winds here all day. Right about 60F currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.