Kayla Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 9 The ridge just rebuilds and doesn't budge once again on the 12z. I'm having a really hard time believing that solution in a Niña. More likely that we see things breakdown in the 8-10 day period with the NPAC flow breaking through. I'd love to be wrong though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Wasn't there something we used to talk about where big typhoons over in the West Pacific later on leads to something here in the PNW? Maybe colder weather or big wind storms? I seem to remember something about that.We often look for a huge low bombing off Kamchatka to be a main driver of downstream blocking near 160 W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 10 .....Not there yet, but I actually really liked the progression on this run compared to many previous ones. Ridge is much healthier, sturdy/upright, and the energy with the trough to the west of it is more consolidated, less cut-off propensity. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Pouring rain here this morning at 45F. Sadly this looks to be the last active weather for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 11-12 for what it's worth (Sack of potatoes?) Block is now tilting http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/276/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Heavy rain now. Temp pushed down to 40. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 12-13 This is exactly the "potential" I was looking for and again due to the sturdy/upright nature of the block and how the energy was handled west of 160/150 W the entire run. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/300/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Ok. DJ. I see what you're describing now. That pattern would deliver the cold to the southwest. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 11-12 for what it's worth (Sack of potatoes?) Block is now tilting http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/276/500h_anom.na.png There's no amount of tilting that would be enough to save us with the block in that position. Better odds if it were undercut and rephrased over the Central Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 GFS gets chilly toward the end of the run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows where the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.png That looks like it would eventually get undercut. Leading possibly a brief overrunning event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Pouring rain here this morning at 45F. Sadly this looks to be the last active weather for awhile.drought conditions returning to VIS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Been a wet November here. More than 12” with a little more to fall today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 If it were only 7-8 degrees cooler. This would be an epic snowstorm. Rain is hammering down here in Bothell. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Subtle improvement on 12z GEFS, mainly with 500mb ridge orientation/axis. The 6-10, 8-14 day 500mb Composite Analogs also improved some with a few cold/snowy years popping up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Cold air has arrived on Sunday afternoon... clearing up and drying out at this point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 It will likely freeze here on Sunday night! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I have to step out, so I can't post any 12z ECMWF stuff. Hope it's a decent run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 It will likely freeze here on Sunday night! 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 13-14, I know it's la-la land, but it shows the progression has a far better chance of getting to where we want it due to the nature of the block which setup at day 7. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/348/500h_anom.na.pngOnly if you like dry backside cold... Yawn... no snow whatsoever with that setup. Toss it! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 515c4859d23fe741465a0519c3786417.jpg They will just be taking a nap... not dead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I have to step out, so I can't post any 12z ECMWF stuff. Hope it's a decent run! I got access to some data. I'll see what it shows. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Cold air has arrived on Sunday afternoon... clearing up and drying out at this point. I don't notice it getting all that cold with that. Still several degrees above freezing. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Only if you like dry backside cold... Yawn... no snow whatsoever with that setup. Toss it! Yes, keep that icky cold away. We all know that moisture is the hardest ingredient to come by around here! It will be cold enough for snow regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z Euro is less amplified and further east with the ridge compared to yesterday. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z Euro is less amplified and further east with the ridge compared to yesterday.I want Rob back. You suck! 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 The rain is quite heavy out there now. Too bad it wasn't colder out. I'm still holding out hope for some Christmas whiteness. And then a brutally cold and snowy January. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 They will just be taking a nap... not dead. Just like that hamster you had when you were 7. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I want Rob back. You suck! I know. I don't have his play by play, map by map talent. Or desire. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just like that hamster you had when you were 7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBqNYs9GEpw 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBqNYs9GEpwRIP Mr. Flufflekins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just like that hamster you had when you were 7. My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point. It was a traumatic day! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Sweetness at Snoqualmie Pass right now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I know. I don't have his play by play, map by map talent. Or desire.We all wish you had the desire. Add that to your catalog of analogs and you'd be unstoppable! A true triple crown threat! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point. It was a traumatic day!Hate to break it to you, but roses do that too. Especially when denied freezing temps for too long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Much more wimpy block on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10... this looks somewhat promising to me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Much more wimpy block on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10... this looks somewhat promising to me. I was just gonna say...that's the first semi-legit retrograde setup I've seen. Rising heights over the Aleutians, flattening +PNA ridge... 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point. It was a traumatic day! One of my hamsters in college suddenly lost all its fur and died. Also traumatic. There's a reason dogs are so popular. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Sweetness at Snoqualmie Pass right now... Glad I chose yesterday to travel. Around town in Moses Lake was much worse than the pass yesterday morning, wet roads and the temps dropped at sunrise creating an ice rink which I think caught the deicer trucks off guard. Lots of people going sideways, was exciting! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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