November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, 6z GEFS Ensembles shows the block is shoved east as with prior runs, but axis remains just offshore. Then what do you know, Day 10-16 the positive anomaly retrogrades back to 150 W. I wasn't quite expecting to see that.

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 49 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Also on the ensembles looking at the 250mb chart after day 8-9 the Asian jet absolutely dies west of 160 W. Over the coming days I'd like to see that held back closer to 170 W to the Date Line.

[TT-SEA]

for the first tine this fall, the evening has that cool, crisp fall feel to it.  should be a decent freeze tonight.

 

Solid freeze this morning?   

 

Pouring rain and 44 here.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF control run showed a nice retrogression signal at the end of the run (12/12):

 

[Kayla]

00Z ECMWF control run showed a nice retrogression signal at the end of the run (12/12):

 

Weeklies were sure ugly but that is looking really good by mid month.

 

You get the sense that the models are beginning to pick up on something in the long term. It will likely be delayed but I'm still thinking the 15th-20th period is a go for retrogression.

[Timmy]

Solid freeze this morning?

 

Pouring rain and 44 here.

Made it to 33 before midnight!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Made it to 33 before midnight!

 

Same here.  45/33 yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

Same here.  45/33 yesterday. 

 

Never made it below 40 here.  Such is life closer to the storm track.    <_>

[Geos]

Chilly 42 degree rain here. Was heavier before 6 am, but now has lightened up.

[TT-SEA]

Chilly 42 degree rain here. Was heavier before 6 am, but now has lightened up.

 

Snowing at Snoqualmie Pass which is really nice.    Hopefully it can stay as snow for the entire event through tomorrow morning.   The WRF shows even colder air coming in this afternoon.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never made it below 40 here.  Such is life closer to the storm track.    <_>

 

Do you keep records for your location?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here are my November #'s so far. 12.29" is the running rainfall total.

 

[Kayla]

12z GFS is already retrograding the ridge at day 9 now...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is already retrograding the ridge at day 9 now...

 

Looks cold for you.

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS is already retrograding the ridge at day 9 now...

Doesn't move as far West as the 6z though.

 

Big blast for the Upper Midwest days 11-12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of today I am 4.8F cooler than last November. BUT still running a +1.2 departure for the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't move as far West as the 6z though.

 

Big blast for the Upper Midwest days 11-12.

 

At face value that would be a pretty chilly pattern at the surface. 

 

Late in the run.... This is a chilly run...

[Front Ranger]

Weeklies were sure ugly but that is looking really good by mid month.

 

You get the sense that the models are beginning to pick up on something in the long term. It will likely be delayed but I'm still thinking the 15th-20th period is a go for retrogression.

 

Yeah, even once a pattern change starts being sniffed out by the models within semi-believable range (10 days), it often gets delayed by up to a week or so.

 

If we follow the general tendencies of analogs that saw a similar pattern to this November, with early December ridging, a favorable pattern for upper level cold in the PNW is unlikely before 12/20.

[TT-SEA]

Do you keep records for your location?

 

No... I used to do that growing up in MN and also did that for awhile in San Diego.  

 

My parents bought me the MN WeatherGuide calendar every year for Christmas which was a treasure trove of climate data and daily observations from the previous year.   It also had space to record weather observations from the current year.    I love looking back at my notes from when I was in elementary school. 

 

This was from when I was 8 years old.    I guess even back then I was not interested in low temperatures.   

 

Also not sure why they did not give you enough lines to cover each day of the month.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW

 

[Deweydog]

Yeah, even once a pattern change starts being sniffed out by the models within semi-believable range (10 days), it often gets delayed by up to a week or so.

 

If we follow the general tendencies of analogs that saw a similar pattern to this November, with early December ridging, a favorable pattern for upper level cold is unlikely before 12/20.

Translation: I've got my analogs, people. Don't **** with me.

[Kayla]

WOW

 

Frigid pattern for the entire northern CONUS. 12z GFS is a solid step in the right direction...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS has something of a Dec 09' feel to it. 

[Jesse]

Translation: I've got my analogs, people. Don't **** with me.

Jared!!!!!

[Deweydog]

Jared!!!!!

Nope. Every kiss begins with Kay.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No... I used to do that growing up in MN and also did that for awhile in San Diego.  

 

My parents bought me the MN WeatherGuide calendar every year for Christmas which was a treasure trove of climate data and daily observations from the previous year.   It also had space to record weather observations from the current year.    I love looking back at my notes from when I was in elementary school. 

 

This was from when I was 8 years old.    I guess even back then I was not interested in low temperatures.   

 

Also not sure why they did not give you enough lines to cover each day of the month.

 

 

This is great.

[Front Ranger]

Translation: I've got my analogs, people. Don't **** with me.

 

 

They've worked pretty well so far.

 

Like everyone else, I'm just following things and sharing info. 

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS ensemble mean basically keeps the ridge anchored over the west coast of Canada through the extended, though it weakens some towards the end.

 

As others mentioned, could be a chilly pattern at the surface for many of you with some northerly flow, even though 850s look warm at this point.

[Geos]

WOW

 

 

That is one cold continental US. 

 

Maybe some we can squeeze out a snow event before Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

January of 1979 was COLD in MN.     

 

[Deweydog]

January of 1979 was COLD in MN. I recorded a high of -18 on 1/21/1979.

 

Pretty generic and innocuous description of maritime air there. Your marine push PTSD obviously didn't originate there.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty generic and innocuous description of maritime air there. Your marine push PTSD obviously didn't originate there.

 

I am surprised that I used the word "here" so often.   I guess I was not familiar with the term "my location".   

 

I actually just verified the low of -22 at the Twin Cities airport on 1/2/1979.    I must have have skipped some days though and did not note that fact.   I was not a good record keeper!  

[Deweydog]

I am surprised that I used the word "here" so often. I guess I was not familiar with the term "my location".

 

I actually just verified the low of -22 at the Twin Cities airport on 1/2/1979. I must have have skipped some days though and did not note that fact. I was not a good record keeper!

Brrrrrr!

[TT-SEA]

Loving this...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a really nasty day out there. 

[Geos]

January of 1979 was COLD in MN.     

 

 

Cool

I also record weather data; starting with high and lows only in the mid 90s when I was in high school and then year by year I would record more information. It's nice to look back on. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z EURO— Kona Low... hour 216... maybe?

[MossMan]

Cool

I also record weather data; starting with high and lows only in the mid 90s when I was in high school and then year by year I would record more information. It's nice to look back on. 

I will need to pull out my old weather history ledger that I recorded my observations on. If I remember correctly it was from the winters of 1987-89. Think I have it with all my old VHS storm tapes in a box. I also included when school was late or cancelled!

[Kayla]

12z GFS ensemble mean basically keeps the ridge anchored over the west coast of Canada through the extended, though it weakens some towards the end.

 

As others mentioned, could be a chilly pattern at the surface for many of you with some northerly flow, even though 850s look warm at this point.

 

Pretty clear retrogression signal there in the long term as well though. The ensemble is a little later in the timing of things compared to the operational which actually makes a little more sense. 

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF is also showing a retrogression signal at day 10.

 

Actually pretty decent agreement this far out.