Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Are you really gonna prop up a coating of snow as an actual accumulation? And your cold wave is looking hella lame. Total weak sauce. Nov 2014 was colder than that looks to be. Wow a day with a high below 30. Like we don't get a few dozen of those every winter. TodaySunny, with a high near 51. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.TonightMostly clear, with a low around 26. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 47. South southeast wind 3 to 8 mph.Wednesday NightA 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.ThursdayA chance of rain before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow and freezing rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.Thursday NightA chance of snow and freezing rain before 11pm, then a chance of snow between 11pm and midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.FridayPartly sunny, with a high near 29.Friday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 14.SaturdayMostly cloudy, with a high near 23.Saturday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 11.SundayPartly sunny, with a high near 25.Sunday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 7.Christmas DayMostly sunny, with a high near 19. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Those highs will go up. The nws is always behind. I go by my Wunderground forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 In other news, the Sun has reached the 100th day without sunspots... What is the significance of this? I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Presume you meant the 17-18th system because the actual last 7 days of November after that system, we got mild dry and sunny starting about the 23/4th depending on Neb or Mich?No, I wish I saved the 500mb maps around Nov 28th showing a closed circulation of energy that tracked due west/east out of the 4 corners across the TX Panhandle/OK/MO/AR region. It weakened considerably bc it was fighting the ridge, but I do not think this happens late month, esp if teleconnections favor more blocking as they are now sorta hinting at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 What is the significance of this? I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc.Well, it certainly shows that we are heading towards a solar minimum over the next couple years. Next year we may double the amount of days with zero sunspots. With low solar sun spots, we have less radiation coming into our atmosphere. The sun is a big driver of our climate and data shows that the years of low solar, we have more likelihood of high latitude blocking. More so next year and the following 2-3 years though. This year may just be a precursor of the next few winters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 What is the significance of this? I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc. I'll try..others can correct if I'm off the mark Low sunspots indicate a quiet sun, and a colder sun. Relating to our wx, it's more like a back-drop scenario. A colder back-drop timed with other pattern inputs can yeild a much colder outcome than when the sun is active and contributing a warmer back-drop. In really active decades, the sun's activity can even mute or offset cold inputs from other sources. In equation form, a negative + a negative = more negative. Low or NO sunspots = colder practical wx chances increase, or at least aren't harmed Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Snow here on the 28th would be an absolute worst case scenario. I have to fly back here that day. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Feels great outside. Currently in the 40s w sun & clouds. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Feels great outside. Currently in the 40s w sun & clouds. Seems premature, but IWX already hoisted a SWS for the brutal cold expected at/after Christmas Day. Now we just need the other ingredients to get in the mix for more SWS headlines. Kinda curious to see how CPC leans with this period when they release today's map(s). As of yesterday, they had the cold staying well west of MI. We never get as cold thx to the lakes, but what hits northern counties of IWX is basically my forecast as well.. 6 days out - can't say if I remember any headlines that far out tbh. Not local anyways, that kinda tramples on CPC's d3-7 hazard threat range, just sayin' 1228 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 /1128 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ ...Very Cold Air Likely for Christmas Day into Middle of Next Week... It appears likely that a significant outbreak of arctic air will occur over the Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, which includes Christmas day. Temperatures are expected to become colder over this coming weekend but the coldest temperatures are currently expected Christmas Day through Wednesday of next week. High temperatures will likely only be in the teens and low temperatures in the single digits. It is possible that low temperatures could drop below zero while high temperatures remain in the single digits, especially in areas that will have snow on the ground by next week. Wind chills are also expected to be below zero and possibly well below zero at times. Those planning travel around the Christmas holiday should be thinking about preparing a survival kit with blankets, food and water in case of a breakdown. Monitor upcoming forecasts for updates and changes since it is several days away. More information can be found online at www.weather.gov/iwx . $$ Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Seems premature, but IWX already hoisted a SWS for the brutal cold expected at/after Christmas Day. Now we just need the other ingredients to get in the mix for more SWS headlines. Kinda curious to see how CPC leans with this period when they release today's map(s). As of yesterday, they had the cold staying well west of MI. We never get as cold thx to the lakes, but what hits northern counties of IWX is basically my forecast as well..It gets brutal next week. I am thinking that things get very interesting by weeks end. CPC will be interesting to see by the later pm hr, for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 By the end of the year, both 12z EPS/GEFS mean have nearly every single member on here covered with a snow pack. Incredible turnaround if that happens. Even if 70% of our members have snow OTG by year's end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Trend is holding on to the cold for next week moderating more and more. Oh well. Beat goes on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Trend is holding on to the cold for next week moderating more and more. Oh well. Beat goes onWhat secret set of models are you looking at? I want them. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The Euro is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on the 28th system. Near 20" values in E KS/W MO. Probably just a one-run wonder but god it is such good eye candy. It'd be even better if that bullseye moved North. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The Euro is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on the 28th system. Near 20" values in E KS/W MO. Probably just a one-run wonder but god it is such good eye candy. It'd be even better if that bullseye moved North.Not this far out, its good where it is until day 5. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Sigh..... This party sucks. I guess a tenth or two of an inch would double or even triple our snowfall for the month! ..Our new forecast has significantly reduced precipitationchances and amounts Thursday...Nearly zonal flow continues across the forecast area with a strongclosed low over the Pacific Northwest. Continued mild and dryconditions are expected through Wednesday as southerly return flowstrengthens over the Central Plains.The above mentioned Pacific Northwest low will quickly drop intothe Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon and begin to shearout as it moves into the High Plains producing a split-flowpattern across the central CONUS. Although we will have some mid-level frontogenetical forcing across the area, the bulk of ourstrong vertical motion for ascent is no longer in place due tosplit flow pattern. In addition, the moisture in place lookslimited across our area and therefore we have reduced overallprecipitation chances and dropped amounts significantly. The coldair will still be arriving, changing any drizzle over to freezingdrizzle as no ice crystals look to be present in the cloud layer.Some light snow remains possible as the colder air sinks south,especially along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Storm total snowfallamounts look like less than a half inch at the highest in ournorth to a tenth or two as far south as I-80. Strong cold-airadvection is still expected with gusty north winds dropping tempsquickly through the day Thursday. Wind chills by evening should bein the single digits in our northern counties to the teens in oursouth..LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through theChristmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early nextweek. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatureslooks possible by mid-week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Sigh..... This party sucks. I guess a tenth or two of an inch would double or even triple our snowfall for the month! ..Our new forecast has significantly reduced precipitationchances and amounts Thursday... Nearly zonal flow continues across the forecast area with a strongclosed low over the Pacific Northwest. Continued mild and dryconditions are expected through Wednesday as southerly return flowstrengthens over the Central Plains. The above mentioned Pacific Northwest low will quickly drop intothe Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon and begin to shearout as it moves into the High Plains producing a split-flowpattern across the central CONUS. Although we will have some mid-level frontogenetical forcing across the area, the bulk of ourstrong vertical motion for ascent is no longer in place due tosplit flow pattern. In addition, the moisture in place lookslimited across our area and therefore we have reduced overallprecipitation chances and dropped amounts significantly. The coldair will still be arriving, changing any drizzle over to freezingdrizzle as no ice crystals look to be present in the cloud layer.Some light snow remains possible as the colder air sinks south,especially along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Storm total snowfallamounts look like less than a half inch at the highest in ournorth to a tenth or two as far south as I-80. Strong cold-airadvection is still expected with gusty north winds dropping tempsquickly through the day Thursday. Wind chills by evening should bein the single digits in our northern counties to the teens in oursouth. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017 A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through theChristmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early nextweek. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatureslooks possible by mid-week.At least you speak it real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Stop whining My god 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Stop whining My godI don't recall this being addressed to you. There's a neat little feature called "Ignore", if my posts trigger you so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Texas gets blasted again on the 18z gfs crazy stuff!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a joke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a jokeSounds beautiful actually. If there's no snow then make it so you can enjoy the warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a jokeWhere are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Where are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20?He sits in his room all day and makes models which show torches. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 This is OAX's long-term AFD. They are getting more and more ridiculous. And this is coming from one of the better forecasters too. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through theChristmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early nextweek. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatureslooks possible by mid-week. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 This is OAX's long-term AFD. They are getting more and more ridiculous. And this is coming from one of the better forecasters too.Yea I saw that. To there defense, their job since after the first week of Oct has pretty much been auto pilot. Warm, breezy, and a 20% chance of .02" rain. Haha. They are probably so bored with this pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yea I saw that. To there defense, their job since after the first week of Oct has pretty much been auto pilot. Warm, breezy, and a 20% chance of .02" rain. Haha. They are probably so bored with this pattern.DEE, one of my least favorite forecasters from there, literally just said "mild and clear weather is expected" for his LT AFD once last year. I wish I was on here when that happened, that was a classic. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Where are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20?Wunderground app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wunderground appLess reliable than actual people who are looking at models and are familiar with local areas. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Oh look Gfs hammers NE on the 28th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 The CMC and GFS are really ramping things up here mid-late next week. GFS CMC Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 It literally snows for nearly 3 days in NE/KS/IA on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Here in my area there is a lot of bare ground now showing. This could be a snow pile Christmas. That is a lot of bare ground but still snow piles around sort of like mid March. Still 35° here so the melting continues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 It literally snows for nearly 3 days in NE/KS/IA on the gfsThat setup, as displayed on the GFS verbatim, screams big dog to me. 1055mb high pressure decending out of canada and interacting with storm system ongoing over the midwest. Would form quite the temp/wind gradient that a storm could feed on. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017122000&fh=228&r=us_mw&dpdt= Nearly everyone in our subforum gets hit over the next week or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I moved my flight back to Omaha to the 27th instead of the 28th because of this potential storm. No change fee cuz it's Southwest, and it doesn't really matter what day I fly back anyway. The idea of being stuck in Phoenix because of a storm I'm missing just doesn't sound intriguing. Of course, since we're the bullseye now, and I'll be here, the storm will go away. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Sweet. Can’t wait to track this next can’t miss guaranteed to snow imby storm. Actually i am glad to see it but hard to get at all excited yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Lol this is beautiful brings tears to my eyes http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122000/204/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 The UK MET is also showing the above mentioned system at HR 144 in its infancy. All 3 models have it. On to the KING. - edit- which also has it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 The UK MET is also showing the above mentioned system at HR 144 in its infancy. All 3 models have it. On to the KING. Can you post it? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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