Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Alaskan ridge looking pathetic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Ridge has really retreated around day 6 last several runs now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not really even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 7 -- Meh.... Well, cut-off at base of ridge is weaker and further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 This whole thing is looking to turn into a progressive trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 We are getting shitt on. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Southerly flow. Rain incoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 What happened to the block? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not really even close.Yeah. Awful.... but I still like the trends to suppress the ridge over us more quickly. If we can just remove that initial lead cut-off system. The weaker Alaskan ridge really is not in agreement with any Ensembles or latest 00z EPS though. Keep that in mind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Nice to see PDX score another freeze. 28 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Clipper alert! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 It is definitely a trend on the Op past 4 runs to weaken the ridge, but not on the Ensembles yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Wow, this is a revolting turn of events. This ship is heading out of port and will likely take a long time to return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 BUT WAIT. HOLD UP Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast could promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 It is definitely a trend on the Op past 4 runs to weaken the ridge, but not on the Ensembles yet Getting to the point with the overall pattern where the OP is superior, though (~Day 4/5). Gonna take another pattern reset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 BUT WAIT. HOLD UP Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast would promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon. As long as the goddam ridge over Alaska amplifies. Otherwise we are 33. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'll work on keeping the PNA tanked after the 23rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 It can change tomorrow to great just as easy as it turned to lastnight. Pretty common. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 12z CMC certainly is not ideal, but it's MUCH better with a stronger block(as Ensembles consistently show) This is even better than it's 00z run last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfsThere's a first time for everything! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 12z CMC certainly is not ideal, but it's MUCH better with a stronger block(as Ensembles consistently show) This is even better than it's 00z run last night. The gem is quite different at day 10 than the gfsYep as I posted above. Entirely different than the Jekyll-Hyde GFS Op I find the improvements on 12z GEM encouraging coupled with what may be a trend to suppress the ridge over us day 3-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Model comparison - If this is a trend it's encouraging. 00z CMC last night at Day 10 and today's 12z at Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 According to the GFS it looks like a warm and wet Christmas. Happy sledding everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 BUT WAIT. HOLD UP Latest Teleconnections Indices forecast could promote or support a more favorable pattern change in models soon. Unfortunately, that's not how it works. The models lead to the teleconnections forecasts, the teleconnections don't lead the models. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 12z CMC look what's digging south at Day 10. I don't see anything to impede this either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Unfortunately, that's not how it works. The models lead to the teleconnections forecasts, the teleconnections don't lead the models.That's still a hell of a lot better than even yesterday's indices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 It’s nice having a few different models to look at. We can always find something promising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 That's still a hell of a lot better than even yesterday's indices. Yeah, it shows the near-miss with the blocking ridge as we get -PNA, but it starts to go up as soon as the EPO starts to tank. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I heard the model riding back during the historic 1919 event was legendary full of ripe sarcasm, one liners, and political jabs. 12z ECMWF in 49 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yeah, it shows the near-miss with the blocking ridge as we get -PNA, but it starts to go up as soon as the EPO starts to tank. Yeah, and we really need to work on keeping the PNA negative after the 24th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days. It's pretty common for models to jump the gun on a significant pattern change. It happened to an extent in 2008, but not at this range. It's also pretty common for long range models to just throw sh*t at the walls and hope it sticks. That seems likely to be the case here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 12z GEFS begins soon. If it's anywhere close to the 12z CMC Op that would be great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.When you say models, are you referring to a couple of rogue GFS runs? The EPS has been pretty consistent. We will likely continue to wait. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 When you say models, are you referring to a couple of rogue GFS runs? The EPS has been pretty consistent. We will likely continue to wait.Without a doubt the EPS has been the most consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2 hours ago La Nina Winters often feature large shifts in the pattern over North America. Looking like another significant shift in the pattern between the 6-10d and 11-15d period forecasts. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 3 hours ago Great example of our @WxCoEnergy Clusters in 12-hourly resolution in which models are having a very difficult time in predicting the timing and placement of an arctic cold front for Christmas Eve. GEFS Clusters on Top, ECMWF EPS middle, and GEM Ensembles on bottom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Didn't this happen in 2008? Models went back to warm then blasted us as we got within 8-10 days.Yes a phew times... there was even a few pull backs with smaller scale stuff within 7 days but in the end it worked out beautifully. ... the larger overall picture was pretty clear at 10 days, but it did get pushed out a number of times. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Through day 10 12z GEFS holds a block near 140-135 W. Ensembles are I guess decent through day 8. Op obviously an outlier how 500mb pattern and ridge/block evolves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Another amazingly slick drive this morning...guess Snohomish Co is saving all of their sand and de icer for the big event coming up! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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