December Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

I think the Typhoon east/near the Philippines and Kamchatka bombing low is leading to model disarray or confusion handling the large scale features and pattern change resulting in fairly high model variability(Op runs mainly for now) giving us plenty of time for big improvements ahead.

Off-equator WPAC forcing is the sledgehammer for the PNW/NW North America. No denying that.

[Phil]

[Guest Dome Buster]

I'm beginning to think this is the year where everyone is amazed that we get another foot of snow, on the same exact date, as last year.

[Phil]

Finally..global SST anomaly is down to +0.08C on the 1971-2000 reference period.

 

Coolest anomaly in 5yrs. Thank you #-NAM.

[Winterdog]

Finally..global SST anomaly is down to +0.08C on the 1971-2000 reference period.

Coolest anomaly in 5yrs. Thank you #-NAM.

Kinda takes the sting out of all these bad runs doesn’t it?

[Front Ranger]

This blocking ridge is such a tease. Amazingly persistent, just not quite in the right spot for most of the West so far.

 

-EPO has definitely been the default. All but 7 days since 10/23.

[Bryant]

I'm beginning to think this is the year where everyone is amazed that we get another foot of snow, on the same exact date, as last year.

You're right... would be quite amazing for folks up north to get a foot of snow on the exact same date that PDX had it last year. Was just thinking the same thing.

[Front Ranger]

if there were ever 3 feet of snow in Atlanta it would be tottel caos

 

I think there was about 2' with one of those crazy blizzards in the mid 1990s.

[Gradient Keeper]

The end of the 18z GEFS run looks VERY interesting. Cold air as the westerlies undercut. HMMMMM....

 

Pretty sure I just saved Winter

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121318/384/500h_anom.na.png

[MossMan]

The end of the 18z GEFS run looks VERY interesting. Cold air as the westerlies undercut. HMMMMM....

 

Pretty sure I just saved Winter

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121318/384/500h_anom.na.png

Just the very start of what will turn into a Jan 1950 redux!

[Gradient Keeper]

Yakima Ensembles not bad. Nice signal to turn colder near the end of the run.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 38 minutes!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[MossMan]

My upper yard is now ready for the snow! Nice day for a mow and cleanup!

[MossMan]

Yakima Ensembles not bad. Nice signal to turn colder near the end of the run.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 38 minutes!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

Let’s get that yellow -30 to verify!

[Gradient Keeper]

Let’s get that yellow -30 to verify!

DONE DEAL.

[Gradient Keeper]

Christmas Countdown: 12 Days

12/13/17 4:02 PM [Model Countdown]

Next up.................

*00z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes (7:24 PM)

00z CMC(Canadian) in 4 hours 7 minutes (8:09 PM)

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 43 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄❄☃❄

[Deweydog]

Let’s get that yellow -30 to verify!

Over Seattle???

[MossMan]

Over Seattle???

I would settle for a -20 over Seattle.

[High Desert Mat!]

Finally..global SST anomaly is down to +0.08C on the 1971-2000 reference period.

 

Coolest anomaly in 5yrs. Thank you #-NAM.

That's really strange being that I just saw on the news (local Bend news) that this is the 2nd warmest year on record for the earth. Am I missing something?

[Farmboy]

That's really strange being that I just saw on the news (local Bend news) that this is the 2nd warmest year on record for the earth. Am I missing something?

The news you're referring to is full of excrement...

[umadbro]

That's really strange being that I just saw on the news (local Bend news) that this is the 2nd warmest year on record for the earth. Am I missing something?

The media is 100% always believable.

[Winterdog]

The news you're referring to is full of excrement...

Eeeew, the paper boy must have pulled a prank on him you think?

[Guest Dome Buster]

We can all agree the models here and abroad still aren't very good. Rob shouldn't be hanging on these like they are gospel, but I do appreciate the enthusiasm. Mark Nelsen has colder, wetter weather early next week. He is a smart man to not give long range forecasts. He knows better.

[Jesse]

The media is 100% always believable.

 

What if the place you read that was wrong?

[Gradient Keeper]

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My enthusiasm and optimism is unshakeable.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours! GET READY for good or improved runs tonight

[luvssnow_spokane]

You're comparing 2 different time frames

Well, yes I was... Click happy. Must have been Phil's Tea Leaves I had been drinking.  -- Either way the difference was still the same. 

[Jesse]

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My enthusiasm and optimism is unshakeable.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours! GET READY for good or improved runs tonight

 

Keep on keepin' on Rob!

[Front Ranger]

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My enthusiasm and optimism is unshakeable.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours! GET READY for good or improved runs tonight

 

You do a great job. I have seen you get burnt out in some winters past, however. Who wouldn't?

 

We'll need you when the good stuff arrives, so feel free to take a run off now and then. 

[Deweydog]

Omak cleared out this afternoon!

 

Of course they paid the price for it with a 37 degree high.

[Kayla]

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My enthusiasm and optimism is unshakeable.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours! GET READY for good or improved runs tonight

 

You do an amazing job!! Keep it up but please get some rest as well, everyone needs you for the epic January ahead!

[Bryant]

Might need to break out the weenie hotline for the 00z runs!

[Randyc321]

We can all agree the models here and abroad still aren't very good. Rob shouldn't be hanging on these like they are gospel, but I do appreciate the enthusiasm. Mark Nelsen has colder, wetter weather early next week. He is a smart man to not give long range forecasts. He knows better.

Dude. I have been reading here for about 10 years. Robs commentary is probably the most enjoyable here. If you don’t like his posts then skip them, but most of the members look forward to them I bet.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I'm just talking about worrying about varying models. I appreciate the posts, rob.

 

Just worried about all the reactions.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm just talking about worrying about varying models. I appreciate the posts, rob.

 

Just worried about all the reactions.

We are all big boys and girls so worrying about reactions is just a wee bit of a waste of time. It is what it is.

[Guest Dome Buster]

We are all big boys and girls so worrying about reactions is just a wee bit of a waste of time. It is what it is.

Lol. Have you heard these weenies?

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Bryant]

[Gradient Keeper]

Keep on keepin' on Rob!

Always

 

You do a great job. I have seen you get burnt out in some winters past, however. Who wouldn't?

 

We'll need you when the good stuff arrives, so feel free to take a run off now and then. 

Hope to not get burnt out due to prolific January ahead. Yeah I should just focus on 00z perhaps? Well here that is. We pretty much post all runs in my FB Group.

 

You do an amazing job!! Keep it up but please get some rest as well, everyone needs you for the epic January ahead!

Appreciate it. Yeah I've considered just calling it a night after the 00z ECMWF Op has finished up. Get a solid 7 hours sleep and be ready for 12z the following morning. If the progressive flow slows up January could definitely be one for the books, or notepad files.

 

Dude. I have been reading here for about 10 years. Robs commentary is probably the most enjoyable here. If you don’t like his posts then skip them, but most of the members look forward to them I bet.

Hey well I appreciate that. There are many commentators here I enjoy.

 

I'm just talking about worrying about varying models. I appreciate the posts, rob.

 

Just worried about all the reactions.

All good. Sorry if I did not clear that up with my initial reply. I'm not worried about anything really.

 

00z GFS in 32 minutes

[High Desert Mat!]

Where is snow wiz? When things aren't as good he disappears. Come on snow wiz, clear and cool is good too. Maybe it's Mark Nelsen.

[High Desert Mat!]

Sounds like Dome Buster may be Mark as well? Where art thou Mark?!?!

[Gradient Keeper]

Good question where IS our mighty Snow Wizard? The forum is absolutely not the same without Jim and I'm sure others feel the same way.