MossMan Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sure would be nice if the GFS and Euro would get on board with the GEM. The GFS 0Z is even worse than the 18Z.Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Fog?(Insert cool kid suicide reference response here) 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern.The GEM can show whatever but it really doesn't mean much to me until the GFS and the Euro both show a similar pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Uncle Jesse?dukes of hazard. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The GEM can show whatever but it really doesn't mean much to me until the GFS and the Euro both show a similar pattern.If you look outside and it's snowing but the GFS and Euro say it's not snowing is it snowing? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Uncle Jesse?dukes of hazard.The grandpa always bugged me. That ******* was in bed for, what, 20 years or whatever? The family was dirt poor and all of the sudden he has a chance to go to a candy factory and he's up and dancing in less time than it takes to sing a song about golden tickets. He could have been out there doing something to help make ends meet.I feel the same. **** that old bastard. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Let's hope the commonwealth of the crown can deliver a royal flushO Canada! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 If you look outside and it's snowing but the GFS and Euro say it's not snowing is it snowing?Let me ask Rob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern.They are but the CMC has trended way way colder 2 runs now. It has to mean something. The CMC could end up looking like a total genius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Boy the gfs is a stinker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 GFS: Consistently inconsistent 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The good news is that there is absolutely no trend in any direction yet. Everything is just flip flopping all over the place. I guess we can say the CMC is trending colder. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z UKMET through day 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 GFS and GEM both look dumb, for different reasons. Euro is going to school them both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I've never cared for the GEM. Found it exceedingly useless. It saying this means almost nothing to me....ALMOST....Definitely adds to the intrigue and angst! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Anybody wanna talk politics? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z UKMET through day 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifLooks great! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I've never cared for the GEM. Found it exceedingly useless. It saying this means almost nothing to me....ALMOST....Definitely adds to the intrigue and angst! Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though.Yep, and UKMET also scores higher more often than the GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though. It was actually never as bullish on the cold last winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 It was actually never as bullish on the cold last winter.True I remember wanting to discount it when the gfs was showing the goods and the gem wasn’t a lot last winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 True I remember wanting to discount it when the gfs was showing the goods and the gem wasn’t a lot last winter It seemed like the GFS was generally right, but it could just be selective memory. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 It seemed like the GFS was generally right, but it could just be selective memory.All the models got fooled late last Decemeber with handling the splitting energy going into the New Year's event. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 This is a battle for international supremacy! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z UKMET through day 6. I think the GFS laid a turd on this run. The 12z Euro, 12z CMC, 0z CMC, and 18z GFS ensembles all showed great promise for this time frame. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower 7CA92932-C1DD-4625-9CB1-0B0FF1DA4900.gif Good to see all that snow in the mountains! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower 7CA92932-C1DD-4625-9CB1-0B0FF1DA4900.gif That'd be a nice Pre-Christmas suprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 That'd be a nice Pre-Christmas suprise.Do you have any elevation at your location? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yep, and UKMET also scores higher more often than the GFS I'm betting the GFS ends up being the outlier of the night. It shows a feature that should cause the retrogression shown on the GEM, but it fails. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 F0D8C33E-E0A9-4477-A55D-5983F1E44475.png C432994E-F1E5-4A5F-BF9F-80B10A0B0BFA.pngSimilar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I guess at least the mountains will get some new POW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 The GFS ensemble all of a sudden shows 850s staying below -4 for 4 straight days now next week. It's gaining momentum. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I can't remember ever seeing so much ensemble spread in the mid-range. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I can't remember ever seeing so much ensemble spread in the mid-range. Huge uncertainty. It's actually possible we could be in the freezer by the end of next week. It's pretty typical for a last minute move like this to show up with these things. Phil actually mentioned that possibility. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think the GFS laid a turd on this run. The 12z Euro, 12z CMC, 0z CMC, and 18z GFS ensembles all showed great promise for this time frame.I agree. It's not the first time the GFS has been the last one to the party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 I agree. It's not the first time the GFS has been the last one to the party. The GFS has been insanely unstable today. No one run has looked anything like the others. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 1http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/024/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 1 That is such a pretty setup. It always leads to cold to some extent. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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