December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge 2mb stronger(than 00z last night) decently more amplified, and a bit more width to it. Aleutian ridge 1mb stronger.

[ShawniganLake]

Hints of a surface low showing up on the models Tuesday night. Nice to see that.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Hints of a surface low showing up on the models Tuesday night. Nice to see that.

That time frame is starting to look like a possible event for you guys up there.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ShawniganLake]

That time frame is starting to look like a possible event for you guys up there.

It is. A surface low would help with the Fraser outflow and consequently possibly help Puget Sound too

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Ridge merger identical to 00c CMC

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/096/500h_anom.na.png

[van city]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Hmmmmm

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, Harry.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Day 5 Hmmmmm

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

That is probably going to lead to another Santa Ana wind event in Socal, which is the last thing on earth we need right now!!

 

It's time we get a pattern change that brings in large storms off the Pacific that affect much of the west to help out with the snowpack and bring much needed rains to so many areas that have been so dry this fall to date.

 

For Socal, this has been the Fall from Hell!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Nope. Maybe backdoor cold air

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

If it tilts harder at day 7 maybe.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro may want to get interesting at hour 144... hmmm

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

If it tilts harder at day 7 maybe.

Jinx —- u owe me a coke fog brother.

[Parksvillewx]

Do you have any elevation at your location?

 

Sadly no. Only about 150ft ASL. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 ahh well better luck next year. OR with 12z tomorrow!

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/168/500h_anom.na.png

[ShawniganLake]

Sadly no. Only about 150ft ASL.

Might be enough. You should move up the hill another couple hundred feet.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Christmas Eve looks Christmas crisp

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just kidding. We do get modified arctic air into the Columbia Basin. You can see how close we were to being much colder. Onto EPS and 12z tomorrow!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wouldn't it be nice to have some great model agreement/continuity between the GFS, CMC, EURO? Even if it's not a good run, just show some consistency please.

 

6z NAM in 1 hour

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just kidding. We do get modified arctic air into the Columbia Basin. You can see how close we were to being much colder. Onto EPS and 12z tomorrow!

A little harder tilt and we're in business. Not a bad run at all. Overall the ECMWF improved tonight. Things are trending in the right direction.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 SO close to a prolific blast

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

[Timmy]

This.

 

The 500mb maps don’t quite do justice to the amount of cold northerly flow happening below. Solidly cold run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some pretty strong offshore winds with this one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What if Canada TRUMPS the US and EU and makes PNW weather GREAT AGAIN?!

[Deweydog]

That is a f*ckload of cold air.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 8 SO close to a prolific blast

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/192/500h_anom.na.png

Yeah and still plenty of time for it to trend colder!

[Deweydog]

The GFS and Euro are actually pretty similar.

[Farmboy]

Looks like the GEM may have been on to something after all...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro is trending in the right direction... getting better... baby steps

[Gradient Keeper]

Not sure if anyone cares, but the 00z WRF has a PDX-DLS of -12 to -14mb gradient next Saturday. INSANE

 

 

12km Time Height is JUST a bit windy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow below freezing again at EUG.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not sure if anyone cares, but the 00z WRF has a PDX-DLS of -12 to -14mb gradient next Saturday. INSANE

 

 

12km Time Height is JUST a bit windy!

Yes I saw that and mentioned it earlier... some serious gradients

[Gradient Keeper]

Christmas Eve timeframe has trended noticeably colder with the past 3 00z ECMWF runs.

 

That's excellent. Thanks for putting the animated GIF together.

 

Looks like the GEM may have been on to something after all...

It sure looks like it. Oh, for what it's worth 00z CMCE Ensembles were REALLY good.

 

Prediction: 12z runs tomorrow are going to make you need to change your shorts(or pants). All models will come into a good to very good agreement Days 3-7.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow below freezing again at EUG.

Some areas the low level cold air just didn't seem to mix out. Speaking of which, the cold pool that refused to die is still firmly intact over eastern Washington. Day 14 and counting

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1513494095492

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That's excellent. Thanks for putting the animated GIF together.

 

It sure looks like it. Oh, for what it's worth 00z CMCE Ensembles were REALLY good.

 

Prediction: 12z runs tomorrow are going to make you need to change your shorts(or pants). All models will come into a good to very good agreement Days 3-7.

I know its out there, but what are your thoughts about day 10 on the Euro?   Maybe undercutting, but maybe another ridge trying to form in the alluetians?  Just looked like a very short blast.