BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 It'll be interesting to see how far we can make it locally without dropping below 525dm thicknesses. Not terribly unusual but it becomes somewhat notable around New Yearz. 2002-03 didn't do that until April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 A few more days and we will be able to start seeing Matt’s Epic MLK blastaganza for the ages showing up on the clown range GFS!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Eh, down into the mid 30s. Hopefully can get something better than that. As long as that pv is stuck over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island, we're pretty much screwed. Right, Phil? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Pretty interesting looking at the local stations around the Fraser Valley tonight. Over much of Greater Vancouver to the north temperatures are sitting above freezing, yet there's a line of windy sub-freezing conditions stretching right into the Ferndale waterfront. Go a little south of that and temperatures warm up quickly as well. It's a pretty common Fraser outflow pattern, but always interesting to see how much more of a difference exposure to outflow has over other factors like elevation. Shame none of it is able to cross the Strait, but this incoming system should produce a large area of snowcover over the outflow regions, which may help a bit with the Friday-Saturday event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm assuming 02-03 was one of those years where we never dropped below? And 15-16 too.02-03 never did. 15-16 did around Xmas. This led to some ravenous predictions for January, including Phil's "2008 only colder and snowier" prediction. #context 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 02-03 never did. 15-16 did around Xmas. This led to some ravenous predictions for January, including Phil's "2008 only colder and snowier" prediction. #contextWrong year (again). For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 As long as that pv is stuck over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island, we're pretty much screwed. Right, Phil?He said no earlier today Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wrong year (again). For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast. MLK. Wuz that 2015? I was 50-50 on that one... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wrong year (again). For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast. He did...MLK Madness!!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2017 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Nobody cares what happens in Vancouver. Go to the Canadian forums.******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 That trough on Saturday is dangerously close to being something good. Strong northerly gradients through southern BC and some decent low level cold. It wouldn't take much of an improving trend on that bring lowland snow down to Seattle.WRF wants to bring light snow over east side at the end of the weekend. Mmm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 winter storm warning up here for tonight but the radar is looking pretty sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not bad. Redemption for Bellingham maybe 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not badI think this weekend might sneak up on some people! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some improvements on the gfs ensembles tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not bad. Redemption for Bellingham maybe Those totals look pretty high, as is typical for the WRF in marginal situations but it does look promising for this area. Would be nice to see some snow after constantly bouncing between gaps in the snowfall for previous events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Excellent GFS run tonight and some nice looking ensembles. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 This possible cold snap beginning in the early part of week 2 is getting some decent support now. This could easily be the beginning of the much advertised winter blast. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run. People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run. People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again! Hope so. Euro is showing snow in Louisiana and Georgia the first week of January. Some epic snow totals along the eastern seaboard in the 8-10 day period. I appreciate all the Christmas snow, but I really want to see something historic (in terms of snowfall) hit us this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hope so. Euro is showing snow in Louisiana and Georgia the first week of January. Some epic snow totals along the eastern seaboard in the 8-10 day period. I appreciate all the Christmas snow, but I really want to see something historic (in terms of snowfall) hit us this season. This reminds me of 1995-96. The East got smashed and then it was our turn. The models are obviously in our court early in week two. In the meantime it will still be mostly chilly here. Amazing how it simply can't get warm here when the Pacific is shut down in Dec and Jan regardless of where the blocking is. For those who care about such things the ECMWF surface temperature maps show this area getting two more freezing low temps this month. That would bring my monthly total to 23. Really impressive. At this point 20 to 25 (or possibly higher) wouldn't surprise me for January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 One last very interesting point...the GFS and ECMWF teleconnection forecasts both show EPO tanked and -PNA by day 10. That is a virtual guarantee for cold here. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I've still got a nice solid snow cover here. A good 2 inches still on the ground. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I've still got a nice solid snow cover here. A good 2 inches still on the ground.Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.I like to complain about the weather too! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise. Very true, but I have quite a bit of confidence for the second week of January given recent model runs and MJO forecasts. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.I say more posters did well than didn’t this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Another epic run for the EPS control model in spite of the EPS not being too exciting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Everyone’s favourite. 33F rain here tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I say more posters did well than didn’t this time around.Definitely. Only ones I can think of besides me are Andrew and Bryant, for different reasons. There's probly others in the Central and South Valley that I forget. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Definitely a nicer evolution on this run. I can't believe Rob isn't here tracking this possible cold wave.Merry Christmas all. What a great White Christmas that was! I had around 2" here with 1/4" ZR added on top of it. I've been real busy at home and as well in my PDX WX Analysis FB group trying to focus on that and also sleep. Lot of sleep. Well, I'm not real excited yet. We've had some pretty decent looking runs with a ridge around day 7 evolving into a block. Several ensembles runs look good with 500mb pattern. We have a long, long ways to go. Cautiously optimistic. Oh, did Phil write off January for us, or where do we stand on that now? 12z GFS in 4 hours 7 minutes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 One last very interesting point...the GFS and ECMWF teleconnection forecasts both show EPO tanked and -PNA by day 10. That is a virtual guarantee for cold here.Ohhh, yeah that is really encouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run. People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 According to the GFS we can take a model riding sabbatical. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 He typically doesn't track east coast events unless he's watching lightning on webcams.Lol.... I don't think I've ever tracked an east coast event. Maybe severe weather, but nothing aside from that. I do remember one severe storm and the NWS warning I believe for Connecticut/Rhode Island stated it was moving east at 90mph. I hope they enjoy the epic blast they're about to get smacked with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 According to the GFS we can take a model riding sabbatical.GFS is garbage. 12z GEM in 4 hours 18 minutes12z ECMWF in 6 hours 13 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 ******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.Wow. Did I trigger you? You guys get so upset when someone mentions your area. Holy cow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 CFS says winter will run last week of January through April this year... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 I don't see all the excitement generated by the EURO? Looks like grasping at straws to me. If anything the GEM supports a GFS like solution too... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wow. Did I trigger you? You guys get so upset when someone mentions your area. Holy cow.Not enough east wind density up there? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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