January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

Currently @ 7F. Its a sunny, beautiful day outside w plenty of snowcover around.

[snowstorm83]

Control is pretty different from the OP with a nice 6"+ bullseye between Grand Island and Lincoln. It's a nice look but I feel like being on the southeastern edge never ends good when you're 7 days out lol

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010412/mc/eps_snow_c_mc_39.png

[Minny_Weather]

Control is pretty different from the OP with a nice 6"+ bullseye between Grand Island and Lincoln. It's a nice look but I feel like being on the southeastern edge never ends good when you're 7 days out lol

Those always turn into Dakotas specials when there is a storm it seems like.

[Tom]

Canadian weeklies are out and they are blow torch warm from the 17th thru early Feb.  Pretty similar look as the Euro Weeklies from Monday.  Let's see what the Euro weeklies suggest tonight.  JMA weeklies came out today and they are blow torch warm for the entire sub forum Week 3-4. 

[NEJeremy]

Run of the mill storm in boston!  Holy flooding

NWS Boston is saying that flooding hasn't been this bad since the late 1970s in some areas. This is a doozy of a storm for sure

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Notable pattern chance the latter half of the weekend with the
persistent longwave trough finally pushing eastward off the east
coast on Sunday. The pattern will become much flatter heading into
the new week with west coast ridging developing through the first
half of the new week. A warm front will lift through southern MI
just behind the exiting trough which will bring temperatures back up
to seasonal normals with highs around 30 and lows around 20. A
trough will slide down the backside of the ridge through the Great
Lakes Sunday night and Monday bringing the next chance of
accumulating snow to the region. Moisture return behind the
aforementioned warm front will aid in snow development along the
trough with a cold front then sweeping across lower MI Monday
evening bringing an abrupt end to the snowfall. High pressure then
builds across the area with the upper level ridge sliding overhead
as well, leading to a dry stretch of weather through midweek.

[bud2380]

Control is pretty different from the OP with a nice 6"+ bullseye between Grand Island and Lincoln. It's a nice look but I feel like being on the southeastern edge never ends good when you're 7 days out lol

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010412/mc/eps_snow_c_mc_39.png

 

That pic is not working for me.  

[bud2380]

We're getting radar returns in Iowa, but it appears that nothing is hitting the ground.  Radar is also setting up the band further east than models showed.  Might get another half inch nuisance snow out of it if the atmosphere saturates.  

[snowstorm83]

That pic is not working for me.  

Hmm idk why. Though it's mainly a NE/Dakota/MN special, central and eastern Iowa get the shaft. EPS is better for you guys though with a 1-3" mean increasing south to north across NE and IA.

[hlcater]

I wish DVN would stop biting on these systems so early, only to have them fizzle into turds. 

 

[jaster220]

It looks that way and starts to cut, then kinda gets shoved straight east near Hannibal MO. Kind of an odd track. Then continues NE over CHI. Massive unrealistic precip shield too. However both models have a pretty significant storm so maybe this one has legs?

 

I'm giving it till 12z Saturday till I start treating it like it has meaning. When both models have showed BS storms this season, they crapped out about 6 days out. Therefore, Saturday is the magic day for me. If it's there then, I'll start giving it respect.

 

Control is pretty different from the OP with a nice 6"+ bullseye between Grand Island and Lincoln. It's a nice look but I feel like being on the southeastern edge never ends good when you're 7 days out lol

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010412/mc/eps_snow_c_mc_39.png

 

Omaha destroyed!  ..would love to see the Vegas odds on this verifying

 

[Niko]

Omaha destroyed!  ..would love to see the Vegas odds on this verifying

 

20180104 12z 168hr GFS Surface.png

I'd say, odds are very low!

[hlcater]

Last two weeks of January and the first week of February continue to look torchy. If so, wouldn't count on significant snowfall, figures.

[St Paul Storm]

Here comes another good GFS run it appears. Maybe.

[Niko]

EC getting pounded still w over a foot from NYC-Boston.

[Money]

Here comes another good GFS run it appears. Maybe.

Nah it really weakens it as it heads north

[Niko]

Currently @ 3F under clear skies and calm winds. Heading down to -10F or even lower.

[centralweather44]

Omaha destroyed! ..would love to see the Vegas odds on this verifying

 

20180104 12z 168hr GFS Surface.png

I don’t have a good feeling about this one. Always a bad sign when we are in the bullseye this far out. Most likely will end up north or south of us.

[GDR]

Big change between gfs runs

[St Paul Storm]

Nah it really weakens it as it heads north

Looked promising when the low was in CO.

[james1976]

Snowing pretty good right now. Band is setting up over me. How many models picked up on this? The NAM comes to mind a couple days ago.

[Niko]

Temps are dropping like a rock. @ -1F.

[BLIZZARD09]

This is the second consecutive winter in which there has not even been a viable snowstorm THREAT, let alone a storm hitting, in the Chicago area--Hard to believe

[BLIZZARD09]

I t looks like even Tom is throwing in the towel on this winter--What hope do we have now?

[Niko]

https://youtu.be/H3vSRzkG82U

[Tom]

I t looks like even Tom is throwing in the towel on this winter--What hope do we have now?

Not throwing in the towel as I do not believe it’s over at all. I’m just trying to figure how long the inevitable pull back will be starting around the 17th of this month.

[Tabitha]

https://youtu.be/H3vSRzkG82U

 

I prefer the Edvard Munch version...

[Madtown]

pull back on the 17th...how toasty in the northwoods?

[Grizzcoat]

Was winter camping last weekend. Wanted to go further N to the Wilderness areas of N.MN like I have in the past but this time I was alone and with the extreme cold the wife wanted me to stay closer to my moms'. So I camped in her back yard and set a new personal record for coldest night roughing it at -22F Sunday morning the 31st.   A few pics-

[james1976]

0.8" so far this evening. Very fluffy. Nice surprise

[james1976]

Ratios have to be crazy. This stuff is dry with big flakes. 6 degrees

[dubuque473]

Went through Chitown today. Was nice to get to a warmer city!

Had some nice lake effect snow in Valparaiso.

Back to my 3" of snowmageddon...

[Niko]

I prefer the Edvard Munch version...

Good choice!  

[Tom]

Just took a peak at the new Euro Weeklies and the good ol' Jan Thaw seems legit right around the 16-17th thru the 22nd-25th (ish), but I'm noticing a colder trend over the last 3 runs that start towards the last week of Jan into all of Feb.  Certainly a colder look to close out the month which would fit the BSR/LRC and other patterns.  Troughs begin to pound the west right on schedule around the 17th-18th of the month and continue throughout the entire month.  Although, I will say, there is a hint the NE PAC flips back to a ridgy look along with high lat blocking post 24th.  I got the feeling that the CFSv2 and Euro are seeing Feb as the most entertaining month of the met Winter season.  If Monday's Euro weeklies continue to show the quicker return to cooler temps, then the Jan Thaw will be transient and not the 2-3 week torch.

[Madtown]

how warm we talking good sir?

[jaster220]

Just took a peak at the new Euro Weeklies and the good ol' Jan Thaw seems legit right around the 16-17th thru the 22nd-25th (ish), but I'm noticing a colder trend over the last 3 runs that start towards the last week of Jan into all of Feb.  Certainly a colder look to close out the month which would fit the BSR/LRC and other patterns.  Troughs begin to pound the west right on schedule around the 17th-18th of the month and continue throughout the entire month.  Although, I will say, there is a hint the NE PAC flips back to a ridgy look along with high lat blocking post 24th.  I got the feeling that the CFSv2 and Euro are seeing Feb as the most entertaining month of the met Winter season.  If Monday's Euro weeklies continue to show the quicker return to cooler temps, then the Jan Thaw will be transient and not the 2-3 week torch.

Both Euro and GFS maps posted elsewhere showed avg to below for mby, so our snow pack after this extreme cold might just survive this time??

[Tom]

how warm we talking good sir?

Tough to say at this point, but a good 5-10F AN???  I know your going up north so depending on where the storm track sets up you may not get as warm.  We'll see how this plays out and I also want to mention that during the period your going up there there is a strong "cutter" signal and illustrates an active storm track which fits the BSR.

[Niko]

Currently @ -3F under a crystal clear, moonlit sky!

[St Paul Storm]

Just took a peak at the new Euro Weeklies and the good ol' Jan Thaw seems legit right around the 16-17th thru the 22nd-25th (ish), but I'm noticing a colder trend over the last 3 runs that start towards the last week of Jan into all of Feb.  Certainly a colder look to close out the month which would fit the BSR/LRC and other patterns.  Troughs begin to pound the west right on schedule around the 17th-18th of the month and continue throughout the entire month.  Although, I will say, there is a hint the NE PAC flips back to a ridgy look along with high lat blocking post 24th.  I got the feeling that the CFSv2 and Euro are seeing Feb as the most entertaining month of the met Winter season.  If Monday's Euro weeklies continue to show the quicker return to cooler temps, then the Jan Thaw will be transient and not the 2-3 week torch.

Good stuff, Tom. Thanks for the update.

[Andrew NE]

Was winter camping last weekend. Wanted to go further N to the Wilderness areas of N.MN like I have in the past but this time I was alone and with the extreme cold the wife wanted me to stay closer to my moms'. So I camped in her back yard and set a new personal record for coldest night roughing it at -22F Sunday morning the 31st. A few pics- 26056125_1780556515322807_4767732689524132492_n.jpg 26167294_1780728171972308_8610320124998226345_n.jpg 26167129_1780728215305637_4640804861115271059_n.jpg

Awesome pics Grizz. You are a lot more brave than I would be.